Realized P&L
+$30.9K
Unrealized P&L
-$147
Hit rate
95.0%
Resolved
455
Trades
4,150
lifetime
Volume
$14.8M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3.57K
Open exposure
$4.65K
2 positions
First seen
2026-03-27
last 07-21 17:39
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 59 days
Categories
Politics
80%
95%
+$32,981
Other
17%
89%
+$2,679
Crypto
1%
83%
+$3,096
Pop-Culture
1%
100%
+$1,081
Sports
0%
76%
-$9,660
Tech
0%
100%
+$732
Activity
No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-21).
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? | No | -4,792 | -$4,457 | 97¢ | $-4639 | -$182 | 07-21 02:46 | |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Yes | -139 | -$46 | 8¢ | $-11 | +$35 | 07-09 03:16 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 132 | $7.17M | 7,173,396 | 0 | +7,173,396 | Yes | +$7,990 | 05-09 19:30 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 29 | $559.2K | 559,711 | 0 | +559,711 | Yes | +$560 | 05-09 19:44 |
| Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | 185 | $534.3K | 429,433 | 192,890 | +236,544 | Yes | -$2,379 | 04-30 21:24 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 76 | $292.6K | 147,571 | 147,544 | +26 | No | +$1,907 | 04-27 05:18 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 64 | $263.9K | 143,064 | 145,000 | -1,936 | Yes | +$23,633 | 04-08 21:12 |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | 36 | $250.8K | 251,943 | 5 | +251,938 | Yes | +$1,186 | 05-03 19:34 |
| Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? | 45 | $225.9K | 220,014 | 6,298 | +213,716 | Yes | +$369 | 05-15 20:55 |
| will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week | 4 | $201.7K | 101,000 | 101,000 | +0 | No | +$101 | 04-16 18:18 |
| will trump announce that the us x iran ceasefire has been broken by april 14 2026 | 6 | $199.6K | 199,850 | 0 | +199,850 | No | +$216 | 04-15 04:33 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026 | 74 | $191.7K | 97,251 | 97,251 | +0 | Yes | +$2,577 | 04-17 03:50 |
| jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10 | 59 | $178.0K | 179,150 | 5 | +179,145 | No | +$1,106 | 04-11 00:41 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 44 | $173.7K | 157,530 | 22,934 | +134,595 | Yes | +$3,128 | 04-08 21:18 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 65 | $171.6K | 86,230 | 86,230 | +0 | No | +$208 | 04-13 16:28 |
| Will Trump dance today? | 109 | $158.1K | 120,707 | 37,985 | +82,722 | Yes | +$411 | 04-28 06:19 |
| us x iran meeting by april 10 2026 895 | 8 | $123.6K | 123,808 | 0 | +123,808 | No | +$220 | 04-14 01:53 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | 9 | $122.9K | 118,884 | 7,773 | +111,111 | Yes | +$1,744 | 05-01 22:02 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | 9 | $111.5K | 111,999 | 368 | +111,631 | Yes | +$13 | 05-01 22:03 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | 348 | $108.9K | 55,717 | 55,682 | +35 | No | +$747 | 04-10 13:51 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | 51 | $104.6K | 50,598 | 54,709 | -4,111 | No | +$54 | 05-09 09:52 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026? | 10 | $104.3K | 52,243 | 52,243 | +0 | Yes | +$104 | 04-13 13:57 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | 12 | $99.0K | 100,000 | 0 | +100,000 | Yes | +$1,000 | 05-09 06:59 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 49 | $95.8K | 72,929 | 22,929 | +50,000 | No | +$50 | 05-11 03:08 |
| Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026? | 9 | $90.6K | 90,818 | 0 | +90,818 | No | +$225 | 04-12 20:39 |
| Will Donald Trump dance on May 1, 2026? | 4 | $84.3K | 84,410 | 0 | +84,410 | Yes | +$87 | 05-01 23:16 |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | 78 | $75.4K | 61,728 | 61,074 | +654 | No | -$2,745 | 05-11 19:59 |
| Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? | 62 | $74.8K | 75,179 | 0 | +75,179 | Yes | +$334 | 05-14 15:56 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 3 | $73.7K | 37,092 | 37,092 | +0 | No | +$245 | 05-12 20:16 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | 32 | $64.7K | 35,000 | 35,000 | +0 | No | +$350 | 05-14 09:39 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | 97 | $64.7K | 46,436 | 21,043 | +25,393 | No | +$2,532 | 05-01 00:39 |
| another crypto hack over 100m before 2027 | 8 | $64.2K | 64,276 | 0 | +64,276 | Yes | +$79 | 04-01 20:07 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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