Disguised-Gumshoe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

75.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$71

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-24

last 08-20 19:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Politics

70% 52% -$2

Other

18% 83% +$3

Tech

12% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes		+4	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	05-09 19:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	3	$9	10	+10	Yes	+$1	02-15 12:50
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	1	$6	10	+10	Yes	+$4	02-28 15:03
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	1	$5	8	+8	No	+$3	08-20 19:51
yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	1	$5	9	+9	Yes	+$4	08-09 15:28
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$5	8	+8	Yes	+$3	05-09 19:36
nato x russia military clash by march 31 2026	1	$5	5	+5	No	+$0	02-15 12:42
israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	2	$4	4	+4	Yes	-$4	02-15 16:57
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$4	4	+4	No	+$0	02-28 23:50
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$3	4	+4	No	+$1	05-09 19:37
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by march 31	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	02-22 20:09
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	-$2	02-16 09:12
will russia strike on kyiv municipality on january 31 125	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	01-30 21:39
us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	02-01 19:22
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$1	2	+2	Yes	+$1	02-01 13:23
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	1	$1	4	+4	open	—	05-09 19:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$1	1,000	+1,000	Yes	-$1	05-09 19:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$1	100	+100	Yes	-$1	05-09 19:20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	1	$1	1,000	+1,000	Yes	-$1	05-09 19:20
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	1	$1	7	+7	Yes	-$1	05-09 19:44
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	1	$1	34	+34	No	-$1	02-01 13:21
will khamenei leave iran by december 31	1	$1	4	+4	No	-$1	02-28 11:30
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	01-24 14:01
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?	1	$1	111	+111	No	-$1	05-09 19:39
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	-$1	01-24 14:42
will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	02-15 12:43
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	05-09 19:38
will mexicos january unemployment rate be 2pt6	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	02-15 12:55
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	-$1	02-28 11:29
will apple be the third largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	1	$1	1	+1	Yes	+$0	01-24 14:56
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	01-24 14:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-20 19:51:22	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xd1b680…
08-09 15:28:58	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xf1e0d9…
05-09 19:44:50	SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?	No	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x10069d…
05-09 19:39:21	Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xc6d958…
05-09 19:38:06	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x98155c…
05-09 19:37:01	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xe66b8f…
05-09 19:36:42	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x44c354…
05-09 19:34:20	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x331379…
05-09 19:20:41	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe011e7…
05-09 19:20:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x147cbb…
05-09 19:19:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x714c54…
02-28 23:50:15	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x65de06…
02-28 15:03:49	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x7840bb…
02-28 11:30:37	will khamenei leave iran by december 31	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x67784e…
02-28 11:29:37	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x396bbf…
02-22 20:09:36	will russia capture all of pokrovsk by march 31	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xa56117…
02-16 09:12:35	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x325e9d…
02-15 16:57:37	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xf6e4a1…
02-15 12:55:51	will mexicos january unemployment rate be 2pt6	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x2c140f…
02-15 12:50:37	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5e1ada…
02-15 12:43:57	will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xc03d43…
02-15 12:42:47	nato x russia military clash by march 31 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4e1995…
02-15 12:20:15	israel strikes iran by february 28 2026	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xb5c2dd…
02-04 22:10:23	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xad88c2…
02-01 19:22:24	us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	Yes	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x3371af…
02-01 13:23:20	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9cef6a…
02-01 13:21:26	us strikes iran by february 2 2026	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x23b306…
01-30 21:39:34	will russia strike on kyiv municipality on january 31 125	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd7deaa…
01-24 15:00:28	will the us next strike iran on january 24 2026 et 848	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xa58395…
01-24 14:56:54	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x03fef3…
01-24 14:56:18	will apple be the third largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	Yes	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xdfe1fb…
01-24 14:42:04	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xc144e0…
01-24 14:39:36	will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x728d05…
01-24 14:10:32	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x536238…
01-24 14:01:04	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xacc190…