Realized P&L
-$85.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$34.6K
Hit rate
2.4%
Resolved
4
Trades
3,755
lifetime
Volume
$1.89M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$504
Open exposure
$95.2K
18 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-23 02:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
81% 25% $-85,224
Other
19%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
69 active days in 12wk • peak 154 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +36,518 $3,918 99¢ $36.2K +$32,235 07-02 10:56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No -36,224 $-25,417 78¢ $-28436 $-3,019 06-19 23:14
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -14,500 $-11,165 86¢ $-12542 $-1,377 06-18 19:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No -12,333 $-12,561 50¢ $-6228 +$6,333 07-14 02:14
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,374 $1,596 68¢ $2.3K +$698 07-09 19:06
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +12,583 $2,891 14¢ $1.8K $-1,130 07-10 17:50
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes -3,722 $-1,973 42¢ $-1545 +$428 07-12 05:09
Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? Yes -18,936 $-1,937 $-1515 +$422 07-23 02:47
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes +2,773 $1,046 41¢ $1.1K +$91 07-17 18:06
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes -10,345 $-1,322 10¢ $-983 +$339 07-22 16:23
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,484 $681 52¢ $779 +$99 06-14 22:38
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +1,300 $650 58¢ $760 +$110 07-20 07:33
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,497 $573 17¢ $424 $-149 06-23 08:08
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,250 $698 16¢ $371 $-326 06-26 10:00
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by December 31, 2026? Yes +4,399 $389 $242 $-147 07-11 06:41
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Yes -2,433 $-36 $-40 $-4 07-14 12:07
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +41 $12 29¢ $12 +$0 05-30 19:13
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Yes +63 $8 $2 $-6 07-20 11:04