Cheerful-Ephemera 0xdf17f4…8697d1
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$37.7K
Unrealized P&L
-$7.19K
Hit rate
99.7%
Resolved
19
Trades
42,408
lifetime
Volume
$19.0M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$448
Open exposure
$320.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 06-30 16:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 10 days
Categories
Politics
61% 92% +$36,703
Other
35% 83% +$981
Crypto
3% — —
Sports
1% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1053 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -99,546 $-94,595 96¢ $-95464 $-870 06-13 14:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -69,485 $-68,323 100¢ $-69416 $-1,093 06-14 23:50
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +30,761 $24,325 83¢ $25.5K +$1,130 06-30 16:37
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No +19,842 $19,282 100¢ $19.8K +$511 06-26 16:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No +19,752 $18,773 100¢ $19.7K +$959 06-20 13:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +16,458 $11,935 100¢ $16.4K +$4,482 06-22 03:06
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -15,945 $-15,493 86¢ $-13633 +$1,860 06-21 16:43
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +15,801 $12,171 80¢ $12.7K +$549 06-20 23:42
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +9,052 $7,773 88¢ $7.9K +$148 06-25 16:40
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +8,742 $7,535 86¢ $7.6K +$26 06-23 22:05
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No -6,689 $-6,610 100¢ $-6683 $-73 06-19 23:42
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No -6,083 $-6,015 100¢ $-6077 $-62 06-15 03:23
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +4,997 $4,496 94¢ $4.7K +$175 06-16 17:58
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No +3,379 $3,268 100¢ $3.4K +$101 06-15 07:52
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No -3,323 $-3,276 100¢ $-3320 $-43 06-16 13:04
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No -2,641 $-2,575 100¢ $-2638 $-63 06-06 22:10
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +1,540 $1,477 100¢ $1.5K +$60 06-10 19:36
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +1,051 $924 100¢ $1.0K +$125 06-21 00:13
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No -963 $-1,670 100¢ $-962 +$708 06-18 20:07
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes +2,500 $107 17¢ $431 +$324 06-30 10:57
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes -456 $-351 94¢ $-431 $-80 05-28 10:50
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +400 $356 90¢ $358 +$3 06-21 06:30
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +600 $282 30¢ $177 $-105 06-15 12:42
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes +34,945 $12,294 0¢ $87 $-12,207 06-21 03:51
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +30,417 $3,837 0¢ $76 $-3,761 06-24 17:30
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No +30 $29 100¢ $30 +$1 06-17 17:51
Trump out as President by June 30? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 05-30 12:56
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No +10 $10 100¢ $10 +$0 06-05 16:44
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No +10 $9 98¢ $10 +$1 06-22 14:35
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No +10 $9 94¢ $9 +$0 06-01 14:33