Realized P&L
+$758.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$38.9K
Hit rate
81.4%
Resolved
1,159
Trades
78,373
lifetime
Volume
$35.5M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$453
Open exposure
$839.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 10-28 08:11
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 235 days
Categories
Politics
53%
71%
+$538,982
Other
39%
78%
+$102,520
Sports
5%
72%
+$14,465
Crypto
2%
84%
+$105,550
Tech
1%
80%
-$3,026
Pop-Culture
0%
67%
-$243
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 1654 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | No | +136,218 | $134,566 | 100¢ | $135.7K | +$1,176 | 10-26 16:00 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | +78,827 | $78,238 | 100¢ | $78.6K | +$313 | 10-28 08:09 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +61,033 | $57,837 | 95¢ | $58.2K | +$358 | 10-27 20:40 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +45,296 | $30,440 | 97¢ | $43.8K | +$13,385 | 10-27 19:28 | |
| Plague pandemic in 2026? | No | +43,470 | $40,443 | 98¢ | $42.6K | +$2,179 | 10-24 16:17 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | +42,391 | $39,952 | 97¢ | $41.1K | +$1,125 | 10-25 23:24 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | +40,440 | $33,218 | 92¢ | $37.4K | +$4,189 | 10-25 23:15 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | +68,147 | $48,768 | 55¢ | $37.1K | -$11,627 | 10-28 08:11 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | +34,668 | $18,171 | 79¢ | $27.3K | +$9,113 | 10-27 22:42 | |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | No | +25,494 | $18,065 | 99¢ | $25.2K | +$7,085 | 10-27 17:25 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +25,272 | $16,360 | 98¢ | $24.9K | +$8,495 | 08-28 21:02 | |
| next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026 | No | +23,411 | $19,460 | 97¢ | $22.7K | +$3,260 | 10-21 16:20 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | No | +25,559 | $19,049 | 88¢ | $22.6K | +$3,571 | 10-27 21:48 | |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | No | +20,564 | $18,590 | 94¢ | $19.4K | +$771 | 10-28 07:16 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | +20,526 | $18,563 | 92¢ | $19.0K | +$424 | 10-16 14:49 | |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | +18,146 | $16,077 | 96¢ | $17.4K | +$1,343 | 10-14 12:37 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | +17,275 | $11,555 | 94¢ | $16.3K | +$4,770 | 10-27 13:41 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | +141,356 | $46,395 | 12¢ | $16.3K | -$30,139 | 10-25 14:55 | |
| France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026? | No | +15,940 | $15,796 | 100¢ | $15.9K | +$120 | 10-27 15:20 | |
| Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027? | No | +16,453 | $14,629 | 92¢ | $15.2K | +$591 | 10-26 15:40 | |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | No | +16,670 | $12,865 | 90¢ | $15.1K | +$2,222 | 10-22 12:42 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? | No | +14,547 | $13,634 | 99¢ | $14.4K | +$796 | 10-24 18:10 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +17,561 | $10,698 | 82¢ | $14.3K | +$3,614 | 10-27 10:40 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | +14,156 | $10,604 | 92¢ | $13.0K | +$2,348 | 10-22 09:17 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | +12,325 | $11,871 | 95¢ | $11.7K | -$131 | 10-27 22:17 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | No | +12,020 | $9,083 | 97¢ | $11.7K | +$2,577 | 10-27 03:56 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | +13,237 | $5,994 | 84¢ | $11.2K | +$5,192 | 10-28 07:43 | |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | +10,739 | $9,783 | 99¢ | $10.6K | +$800 | 10-21 19:21 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | +11,102 | $8,500 | 94¢ | $10.5K | +$1,991 | 10-24 19:41 | |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? | No | +15,995 | $11,123 | 63¢ | $10.1K | -$1,047 | 10-28 06:27 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 1,469 | $1.96M | 1,603,741 | 1,944,242 | -340,501 | Yes | -$13 | 03-13 10:08 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 4,126 | $1.70M | 959,097 | 908,542 | +50,554 | open | — | 08-28 21:02 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 1,871 | $848.2K | 938,553 | 920,831 | +17,722 | open | — | 10-27 10:40 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 1,712 | $784.5K | 8,924,146 | 6,284,241 | +2,639,904 | No | +$103,799 | 06-04 00:34 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 462 | $659.8K | 509,577 | 587,254 | -77,677 | No | +$4,298 | 04-04 20:51 |
| israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7 | 355 | $613.1K | 480,157 | 230,478 | +249,679 | Yes | +$18,549 | 06-07 23:04 |
| will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | 238 | $573.1K | 542,000 | 33,000 | +509,000 | Yes | +$246 | 07-09 19:13 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 331 | $527.9K | 391,524 | 156,129 | +235,394 | Yes | -$1,835 | 03-04 00:57 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | 740 | $508.7K | 554,228 | 1,802 | +552,426 | No | +$28,745 | 07-01 04:00 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 1,121 | $488.7K | 2,278,028 | 2,509,386 | -231,358 | Yes | +$580 | 04-08 23:52 |
| will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710 | 229 | $460.7K | 421,104 | 46,031 | +375,072 | Yes | +$2,638 | 08-04 22:32 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 769 | $419.6K | 319,640 | 186,628 | +133,012 | No | +$2,519 | 05-04 14:00 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 300 | $415.6K | 224,223 | 219,030 | +5,193 | Yes | +$20,773 | 02-03 19:06 |
| will iran strike israel on march 6 | 100 | $412.8K | 253,182 | 160,982 | +92,200 | No | +$983 | 03-11 09:11 |
| ilhan omar town hall attack staged | 373 | $410.7K | 266,666 | 152,387 | +114,279 | No | +$3,018 | 02-28 17:21 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440 | 260 | $397.4K | 225,624 | 200,584 | +25,040 | No | +$3,756 | 09-29 12:48 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 456 | $392.5K | 511,908 | 104,703 | +407,205 | Yes | +$116,251 | 06-17 03:29 |
| will iran strike israel on march 10 | 314 | $381.2K | 157,548 | 233,844 | -76,296 | Yes | -$631 | 03-17 23:55 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 959 | $358.5K | 207,763 | 175,340 | +32,423 | No | +$3,045 | 10-08 08:40 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? | 503 | $343.4K | 267,799 | 112,011 | +155,788 | No | +$29,848 | 07-27 02:11 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 553 | $342.9K | 702,244 | 150,751 | +551,492 | Yes | +$291,312 | 06-16 13:06 |
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | 115 | $338.7K | 306,119 | 264,538 | +41,581 | Yes | +$3,244 | 10-18 17:38 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 98 | $330.5K | 293,383 | 40,881 | +252,501 | No | +$2,586 | 04-30 20:34 |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | 471 | $326.4K | 264,053 | 83,764 | +180,289 | Yes | +$7,991 | 09-20 15:53 |
| will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418 | 52 | $325.1K | 200,759 | 125,000 | +75,759 | No | +$420 | 07-07 19:52 |
| Trump kiss by May 31? | 206 | $321.6K | 177,111 | 178,942 | -1,831 | Yes | +$18,346 | 05-20 16:16 |
| will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards | 5,542 | $317.0K | 265,509 | 211,299 | +54,211 | Yes | +$1,825 | 03-16 02:35 |
| iran closes its airspace by june 8 | 286 | $308.5K | 369,756 | 48,881 | +320,874 | Yes | +$2,539 | 06-08 15:54 |
| new stranger things episode released by february 28 564 799 718 478 643 635 547 | 264 | $307.5K | 163,886 | 147,342 | +16,543 | No | +$1,156 | 02-28 22:55 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 239 | $305.2K | 145,913 | 175,475 | -29,562 | No | +$9,794 | 04-29 16:01 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||