Cheerful-Ephemera 0xdf17f4…8697d1
whale hot 20W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L (7d)
+$9.52K
Unrealized P&L
+$40.4K
Hit rate
99.3%
Resolved (7d)
28
Trades (7d)
1,870
78,917 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$1.35M
$35.9M lifetime
Avg / trade
$455
Open exposure
$858.3K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 10-31 01:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 237 days
Categories
Politics
53% 72% +$539,051
Other
39% 77% +$102,715
Sports
4% 72% +$14,465
Crypto
2% 84% +$105,550
Tech
1% 80% -$3,026
Pop-Culture
0% 67% -$243
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1654 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? No +105,167 $103,547 100¢ $105.0K +$1,463 10-30 21:26
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +64,860 $53,799 98¢ $63.3K +$9,472 10-30 00:03
Trump out as President before 2027? No +61,033 $57,837 96¢ $58.7K +$846 10-27 20:40
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +66,598 $47,155 68¢ $45.6K -$1,535 10-30 21:03
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +46,840 $44,112 95¢ $44.7K +$597 10-29 17:35
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +45,351 $30,491 96¢ $43.7K +$13,205 10-29 17:31
Plague pandemic in 2026? No +43,824 $40,779 98¢ $42.9K +$2,102 10-29 17:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +40,630 $40,030 100¢ $40.6K +$558 10-30 17:48
US recession by end of 2026? No +40,429 $33,207 94¢ $37.8K +$4,594 10-29 12:48
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +51,813 $40,548 57¢ $29.5K -$11,015 10-30 07:01
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +33,392 $17,102 84¢ $27.9K +$10,813 10-30 23:29
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +25,450 $23,953 100¢ $25.3K +$1,370 10-30 00:35
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? No +22,411 $18,465 100¢ $22.3K +$3,867 10-30 23:12
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +22,516 $15,129 99¢ $22.2K +$7,117 10-28 22:34
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by december 31 No +24,784 $18,357 88¢ $21.8K +$3,453 10-30 20:33
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +20,626 $14,113 96¢ $19.9K +$5,791 10-30 05:39
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? No +20,584 $18,608 96¢ $19.9K +$1,245 10-29 05:11
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +20,526 $18,563 94¢ $19.4K +$834 10-16 14:49
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +18,146 $16,077 96¢ $17.3K +$1,252 10-14 12:37
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027? No +16,453 $14,629 92¢ $15.2K +$591 10-26 15:40
France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026? No +14,833 $14,691 100¢ $14.8K +$120 10-28 22:18
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +17,616 $10,741 82¢ $14.5K +$3,792 10-29 17:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +138,356 $46,065 11¢ $14.5K -$31,537 10-30 21:17
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? No +14,547 $13,634 99¢ $14.4K +$774 10-24 18:10
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? No +16,680 $12,873 86¢ $14.3K +$1,472 10-29 17:47
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? No +20,868 $14,152 64¢ $13.4K -$797 10-30 22:40
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +14,151 $10,600 94¢ $13.2K +$2,631 10-29 17:26
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +13,200 $7,684 94¢ $12.5K +$4,790 10-29 17:45
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +12,360 $11,903 96¢ $11.8K -$81 10-29 17:16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +12,040 $9,100 97¢ $11.7K +$2,579 10-30 21:02