Realized P&L (24h)
—
Unrealized P&L
+$46.9K
Hit rate
—
Resolved (24h)
0
Trades (24h)
334
79,638 lifetime
Volume (24h)
$91.2K
$36.3M lifetime
Avg / trade
$456
Open exposure
$951.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 11-02 18:55
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 239 days
Categories
Politics
52%
72%
+$527,574
Other
40%
79%
+$113,110
Sports
4%
72%
+$14,465
Crypto
2%
84%
+$105,550
Tech
1%
83%
-$3,023
Pop-Culture
0%
67%
-$243
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 1654 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026? | Yes | +219,663 | $219,094 | 100¢ | $219.4K | +$349 | 11-02 05:39 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +59,752 | $48,793 | 98¢ | $58.6K | +$9,794 | 11-01 19:15 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +58,606 | $55,485 | 96¢ | $56.5K | +$1,041 | 11-02 12:49 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | +46,840 | $44,112 | 97¢ | $45.6K | +$1,463 | 10-29 17:35 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +45,341 | $30,481 | 97¢ | $43.9K | +$13,432 | 11-02 09:33 | |
| Plague pandemic in 2026? | No | +43,824 | $40,779 | 98¢ | $43.1K | +$2,278 | 10-29 17:54 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | +40,630 | $40,030 | 100¢ | $40.6K | +$558 | 10-30 17:48 | |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | Yes | +40,153 | $33,453 | 99¢ | $39.7K | +$6,258 | 11-02 17:32 | |
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | +40,429 | $33,207 | 94¢ | $38.2K | +$4,998 | 10-29 12:48 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | No | +51,022 | $35,741 | 74¢ | $37.5K | +$1,760 | 11-02 19:35 | |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | +51,672 | $40,456 | 68¢ | $34.9K | -$5,577 | 11-02 18:24 | |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | No | +31,790 | $30,178 | 98¢ | $31.1K | +$913 | 11-02 18:50 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | +32,858 | $16,649 | 85¢ | $27.9K | +$11,264 | 11-02 15:53 | |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | No | +25,006 | $18,550 | 87¢ | $21.8K | +$3,205 | 11-01 07:31 | |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | +20,526 | $18,563 | 96¢ | $19.6K | +$1,040 | 10-16 14:49 | |
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? | No | +20,584 | $18,608 | 93¢ | $19.1K | +$514 | 10-29 05:11 | |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | +18,146 | $16,077 | 96¢ | $17.3K | +$1,261 | 10-14 12:37 | |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | No | +17,446 | $13,533 | 93¢ | $16.2K | +$2,692 | 11-02 07:29 | |
| Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027? | No | +16,453 | $14,629 | 93¢ | $15.3K | +$673 | 10-26 15:40 | |
| Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? | No | +23,322 | $15,675 | 64¢ | $15.0K | -$632 | 11-02 11:25 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | +129,484 | $45,000 | 12¢ | $14.9K | -$30,110 | 11-02 18:47 | |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | No | +14,146 | $10,595 | 96¢ | $13.5K | +$2,914 | 10-31 05:45 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | +13,883 | $8,312 | 94¢ | $13.1K | +$4,807 | 11-01 10:16 | |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | +12,908 | $12,430 | 97¢ | $12.5K | +$77 | 11-01 18:30 | |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | +12,183 | $5,062 | 90¢ | $10.9K | +$5,842 | 11-01 10:00 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +12,101 | $6,164 | 84¢ | $10.1K | +$3,940 | 11-02 15:03 | |
| Will Ilhan Omar be deported by December 31, 2026? | No | +9,991 | $9,678 | 98¢ | $9.8K | +$128 | 10-28 07:14 | |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | -10,000 | -$10,532 | 96¢ | $-9550 | +$982 | 10-02 21:00 | |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | No | +8,350 | $7,494 | 97¢ | $8.1K | +$622 | 10-29 17:54 | |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | +8,239 | $7,660 | 98¢ | $8.1K | +$401 | 11-02 15:49 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | 1,469 | $1.96M | 1,603,741 | 1,944,242 | -340,501 | Yes | -$13 | 03-13 10:08 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 4,142 | $1.75M | 1,005,070 | 920,035 | +85,034 | open | — | 11-01 19:15 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 1,914 | $858.5K | 941,996 | 929,734 | +12,262 | open | — | 11-02 15:03 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | 1,712 | $784.5K | 8,924,146 | 6,284,241 | +2,639,904 | No | +$103,799 | 06-04 00:34 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 462 | $659.8K | 509,577 | 587,254 | -77,677 | No | +$4,298 | 04-04 20:51 |
| Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | 355 | $613.1K | 480,157 | 230,478 | +249,679 | Yes | +$18,549 | 06-07 23:04 |
| will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | 238 | $573.1K | 542,000 | 33,000 | +509,000 | Yes | +$246 | 07-09 19:13 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 331 | $527.9K | 391,524 | 156,129 | +235,394 | Yes | -$1,835 | 03-04 00:57 |
| iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30 | 740 | $508.7K | 554,228 | 1,802 | +552,426 | No | +$28,745 | 07-01 04:00 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 1,121 | $488.7K | 2,278,028 | 2,509,386 | -231,358 | Yes | +$580 | 04-08 23:52 |
| will donald trump publicly insult tucker carlson by july 31 2026 20260626210612710 | 229 | $460.7K | 421,104 | 46,031 | +375,072 | Yes | +$2,638 | 08-04 22:32 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 769 | $419.6K | 319,640 | 186,628 | +133,012 | No | +$2,519 | 05-04 14:00 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 300 | $415.6K | 224,223 | 219,030 | +5,193 | Yes | +$20,773 | 02-03 19:06 |
| will iran strike israel on march 6 | 100 | $412.8K | 253,182 | 160,982 | +92,200 | No | +$983 | 03-11 09:11 |
| ilhan omar town hall attack staged | 373 | $410.7K | 266,666 | 152,387 | +114,279 | No | +$3,018 | 02-28 17:21 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | 260 | $397.4K | 225,624 | 200,584 | +25,040 | No | +$3,756 | 09-29 12:48 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 456 | $392.5K | 511,908 | 104,703 | +407,205 | Yes | +$116,251 | 06-17 03:29 |
| will iran strike israel on march 10 | 314 | $381.2K | 157,548 | 233,844 | -76,296 | Yes | -$631 | 03-17 23:55 |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 959 | $358.5K | 207,763 | 175,340 | +32,423 | No | +$3,045 | 10-08 08:40 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? | 503 | $343.4K | 267,799 | 112,011 | +155,788 | No | +$29,848 | 07-27 02:11 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 553 | $342.9K | 702,244 | 150,751 | +551,492 | Yes | +$291,312 | 06-16 13:06 |
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second? | 115 | $338.7K | 306,119 | 264,538 | +41,581 | Yes | +$3,244 | 10-18 17:38 |
| us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026 | 98 | $330.5K | 293,383 | 40,881 | +252,501 | No | +$2,586 | 04-30 20:34 |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | 471 | $326.4K | 264,053 | 83,764 | +180,289 | Yes | +$7,991 | 09-20 15:53 |
| will the white house call a full lid by 630pm on july 4 20260626160825418 | 52 | $325.1K | 200,759 | 125,000 | +75,759 | No | +$420 | 07-07 19:52 |
| Trump kiss by May 31? | 206 | $321.6K | 177,111 | 178,942 | -1,831 | Yes | +$18,346 | 05-20 16:16 |
| will one battle after another win best picture at the 98th academy awards | 5,542 | $317.0K | 265,509 | 211,299 | +54,211 | Yes | +$1,825 | 03-16 02:35 |
| iran closes its airspace by june 8 | 286 | $308.5K | 369,756 | 48,881 | +320,874 | Yes | +$2,539 | 06-08 15:54 |
| new stranger things episode released by february 28 564 799 718 478 643 635 547 | 264 | $307.5K | 163,886 | 147,342 | +16,543 | No | +$1,156 | 02-28 22:55 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 239 | $305.2K | 145,913 | 175,475 | -29,562 | No | +$9,794 | 04-29 16:01 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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