Cheerful-Ephemera 0xdf17f4…8697d1
whale hot 20W streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L (30d)
+$37.7K
Unrealized P&L
+$37.1K
Hit rate
96.8%
Resolved (30d)
110
Trades (30d)
4,962
78,820 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$3.37M
$35.8M lifetime
Avg / trade
$455
Open exposure
$903.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-04
last 10-30 00:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 236 days
Categories
Politics
53% 71% +$538,982
Other
39% 77% +$102,715
Sports
5% 72% +$14,465
Crypto
2% 84% +$105,550
Tech
1% 80% -$3,026
Pop-Culture
0% 67% -$243
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 1654 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? No +136,185 $134,533 100¢ $135.6K +$1,108 10-29 12:02
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +64,860 $53,799 97¢ $63.2K +$9,375 10-30 00:03
Trump out as President before 2027? No +61,033 $57,837 96¢ $58.7K +$816 10-27 20:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? No +50,630 $50,020 100¢ $50.6K +$558 10-29 10:54
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +66,543 $47,117 70¢ $46.9K -$205 10-29 22:44
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +46,840 $44,112 97¢ $45.3K +$1,206 10-29 17:35
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No +45,351 $30,491 95¢ $43.1K +$12,615 10-29 17:31
Plague pandemic in 2026? No +43,824 $40,779 98¢ $42.8K +$2,059 10-29 17:54
US recession by end of 2026? No +40,429 $33,207 93¢ $37.6K +$4,392 10-29 12:48
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +51,818 $40,552 57¢ $29.8K -$10,756 10-29 22:59
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +34,696 $18,191 81¢ $28.1K +$9,895 10-29 17:49
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +25,450 $23,953 98¢ $24.8K +$861 10-30 00:35
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +26,626 $19,503 86¢ $23.0K +$3,528 10-30 00:36
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? No +23,411 $19,460 98¢ $23.0K +$3,517 10-21 16:20
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? No +22,516 $15,129 99¢ $22.3K +$7,151 10-28 22:34
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? No +25,116 $18,652 88¢ $22.0K +$3,324 10-29 23:40
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31? No +20,584 $18,608 95¢ $19.5K +$895 10-29 05:11
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +20,526 $18,563 94¢ $19.2K +$629 10-16 14:49
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +18,146 $16,077 96¢ $17.3K +$1,252 10-14 12:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +141,356 $46,395 12¢ $16.3K -$30,139 10-29 17:41
Anthropic lab leak by June 30, 2027? No +16,453 $14,629 92¢ $15.2K +$591 10-26 15:40
France declares state of siege (martial law) by October 31, 2026? No +14,833 $14,691 100¢ $14.8K +$120 10-28 22:18
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by October 31? No +14,547 $13,634 99¢ $14.4K +$738 10-24 18:10
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +17,616 $10,741 82¢ $14.4K +$3,615 10-29 17:54
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? No +16,680 $12,873 86¢ $14.3K +$1,472 10-29 17:47
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +14,151 $10,600 94¢ $13.2K +$2,631 10-29 17:26
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +13,200 $7,684 94¢ $12.5K +$4,790 10-29 17:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +12,020 $9,083 98¢ $11.8K +$2,697 10-27 03:56
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +12,360 $11,903 95¢ $11.7K -$167 10-29 17:16
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31? No +19,073 $13,118 61¢ $11.6K -$1,483 10-29 22:20