Incomparable-Attitude — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$31.4K

Unrealized P&L

-$1.15K

Hit rate

35.5%

Resolved

127

Trades

374

lifetime

Volume

$84.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$227

Open exposure

$1.84K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 10-31 13:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 51 days

Categories

Politics

50% 20% -$16,512

Other

36% 12% -$14,689

Crypto

14% 46% -$155

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 29 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+16,052	$1,060	5¢	$803	-$257	10-31 13:27
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+10,629	$1,179	7¢	$733	-$446	10-10 15:16
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	+12,538	$757	2¢	$307	-$450	10-30 17:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	9	$6.7K	51,673	51,673	+0	open	—	09-11 13:19
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	23	$5.7K	87,889	38,289	+49,600	Yes	-$4,740	02-06 13:22
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$4.1K	50,591	50,591	+0	No	-$2,800	03-29 18:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	5	$3.6K	4,652	4,652	+0	No	+$239	05-10 19:33
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	5	$3.5K	37,469	37,469	+0	No	-$998	06-26 20:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$3.4K	15,465	15,465	+0	No	+$1,111	06-25 13:55
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	6	$2.4K	40,341	0	+40,341	No	-$2,376	02-03 21:17
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	7	$2.3K	2,326	2,326	+0	No	-$168	04-14 15:30
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	13	$2.3K	12,911	12,911	+0	No	+$5	05-27 12:46
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$2.2K	120,317	0	+120,317	No	-$2,154	08-12 13:01
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	8	$1.8K	49,757	0	+49,757	No	-$1,765	04-29 17:15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	2	$1.7K	3,904	3,904	+0	No	-$78	05-20 19:03
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	3	$1.7K	7,285	7,285	+0	No	-$1,601	04-12 19:21
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	3	$1.7K	30,723	16,832	+13,891	No	-$1,143	04-29 17:25
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	4	$1.7K	3,628	3,628	+0	No	+$660	05-04 17:50
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$1.6K	8,504	0	+8,504	No	-$1,616	09-11 13:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$1.6K	4,981	4,981	+0	Yes	+$234	04-01 23:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	3	$1.5K	40,480	40,480	+0	open	—	10-10 15:01
por alv aro 2026 04 24 alv	2	$1.5K	747	746	+1	Yes	+$22	04-24 21:15
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$1.4K	19,607	19,607	+0	No	-$1,177	04-29 14:31
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	16	$1.3K	21,689	21,689	+0	Yes	-$984	06-21 09:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-12 20:00 UTC	2	$1.2K	758	739	+19	Down	+$250	04-12 20:15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	2	$1.2K	10,629	0	+10,629	open	—	10-10 15:16
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?	2	$1.1K	592	592	+0	No	+$11	04-14 21:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$1.1K	20,132	0	+20,132	No	-$1,084	05-25 19:08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	1	$1.1K	16,052	0	+16,052	open	—	10-31 13:27
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	15	$1.0K	47,931	0	+47,931	Yes	-$1,050	09-06 17:28
Netanyahu out by April 30?	2	$1.0K	130,741	130,741	+0	No	-$769	04-29 14:35
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	1	$1.0K	16,625	0	+16,625	No	-$1,001	05-27 19:17
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	1	$1000	3,679	0	+3,679	No	-$1,000	05-10 19:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 13:27:03	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16,052	7¢	$1,060	0x36b289…
10-30 17:58:01	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	Yes	BUY	12,538	6¢	$757	0xba5468…
10-23 20:56:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x8d06bc…
10-23 20:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x45d481…
10-23 20:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xfcb58d…
10-23 20:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xf30a24…
10-23 20:56:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe2b783…
10-23 20:56:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x8aca73…
10-23 20:56:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5afb94…
10-23 20:56:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x1684e2…
10-23 20:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe804dc…
10-23 20:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x9d1d61…
10-23 20:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x8ce51f…
10-23 20:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x4ab566…
10-23 20:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xe650de…
10-23 20:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xcc3f33…
10-23 20:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x7d7ec1…
10-23 20:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x524e61…
10-23 20:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x4a3f6a…
10-23 20:56:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x11d039…
10-23 20:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xa4a362…
10-23 20:56:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x271c15…
10-23 20:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5075bf…
10-23 20:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x8d1895…
10-23 20:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5de335…
10-23 20:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3154d5…
10-23 20:54:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x8d9aac…
10-23 20:52:32	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	2,101	0¢	$6	0xfa3574…
10-23 20:52:27	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14,261	0¢	$14	0x400862…
10-23 12:39:44	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	802	2¢	$20	0x5c8ce5…
10-23 12:39:38	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14,699	2¢	$300	0x60aa28…
10-19 12:14:45	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	2,101	4¢	$84	0xeb5ed3…
10-19 12:13:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16,555	2¢	$333	0x0dd27b…
10-19 12:11:02	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,270	5¢	$66	0xe4abf9…
10-19 12:08:02	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,986	12¢	$600	0x7c0622…
10-10 15:16:42	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3,567	11¢	$409	0x4300d3…
10-10 15:01:16	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14,682	0¢	$43	0x1fe116…
10-10 15:01:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	SELL	40,480	1¢	$337	0xd6c8c0…
10-03 21:24:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 21:20 UTC	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x1005e5…
10-03 19:58:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 19:55 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x72fbd2…
10-03 19:58:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 19:55 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xebfb99…
10-03 19:58:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 19:55 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7de9c3…
10-03 19:58:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 19:55 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0cf9c9…
10-03 19:58:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 19:55 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2bcd87…
10-03 19:58:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 19:55 UTC	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x04d282…
10-03 19:58:25	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:45 UTC	Up	SELL	68	98¢	$67	0x94a389…
10-03 19:51:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 19:50 UTC	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x4d6f63…
10-03 19:49:50	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x9c958b…
10-03 19:49:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x9fa03e…
10-03 19:49:08	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xf315e4…
10-03 19:49:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x019a78…
10-03 19:49:05	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-03 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x7fb871…
10-03 19:47:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-03 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xf8a42b…
10-03 19:47:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	BUY	3,037	3¢	$100	0xf5c33d…
10-01 18:47:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	BUY	37,443	3¢	$1,093	0x5e3de4…
09-30 13:47:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7,062	11¢	$770	0xf72904…
09-25 22:04:38	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$18	0x2ed063…
09-25 22:04:12	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8,582	2¢	$200	0xfd704e…
09-25 22:04:09	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,000	2¢	$100	0xa9bbd4…
09-25 22:04:05	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x53a739…
09-15 22:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x15f883…
09-11 13:37:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x4f5e55…
09-11 13:37:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x0d2e32…
09-11 13:36:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	14	83¢	$12	0x907acb…
09-11 13:32:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x45adbf…
09-11 13:32:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x082a4a…
09-11 13:32:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x6fd2b8…
09-11 13:25:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x333315…
09-11 13:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x19827f…
09-11 13:20:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,504	19¢	$1,616	0xb24253…
09-11 13:19:13	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,654	4¢	$66	0xa8c702…
09-11 13:19:13	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	31,417	5¢	$1,631	0x0642b3…
09-07 11:12:36	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	7,756	0¢	$38	0xe281f7…
09-07 11:09:21	Ethereum Up or Down - September 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xb7e1a0…
09-06 17:28:30	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,563	2¢	$34	0xeb3d30…
09-06 15:49:49	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	300	2¢	$7	0x2be66c…
09-06 14:04:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x09c6e6…
09-06 13:59:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0x0139c0…
09-06 10:36:31	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	206	2¢	$5	0xe05b7a…
09-06 07:46:24	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	91	2¢	$2	0x480082…
09-06 07:30:10	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	124	2¢	$3	0x6ab198…
09-06 01:05:22	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	42,000	2¢	$924	0x600d65…
09-06 01:05:22	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	499	2¢	$11	0x450f87…
09-05 21:43:03	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x08ce82…
09-05 18:23:22	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x1c544a…
09-05 18:22:06	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	520	2¢	$11	0xfd323c…
09-05 18:22:06	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	180	2¢	$4	0x7df823…
09-05 14:36:57	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x123fa4…
09-05 14:36:46	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x4fcc7b…
09-05 14:36:45	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x227d77…
09-05 14:36:07	Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,430	2¢	$49	0x165724…
08-12 13:01:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,401	1¢	$26	0xd2084f…
08-09 17:28:43	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	63,392	2¢	$1,228	0x732430…
08-09 17:28:22	China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	18,602	7¢	$1,302	0x9be166…
08-08 14:32:58	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15,521	1¢	$155	0xee88af…
08-08 14:31:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	54,524	2¢	$900	0x24d400…
07-19 16:44:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x9f88d9…
07-19 16:43:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	155	3¢	$4	0x01b73b…
07-19 16:43:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xe9b6ab…
07-19 16:43:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-19 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	149	2¢	$3	0x7ac1af…