Realized P&L
-$1.05K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.79K
Hit rate
74.4%
Resolved
49
Trades
17,309
lifetime
Volume
$1.01M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$58
Open exposure
$22.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 11:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Politics
61% 68% $-784
Other
27% 65% +$78
Sports
10% 33% $-511
Crypto
1% 100% +$172
Pop-Culture
1%
Tech
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 379 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No +4,000 $3,450 92¢ $3.7K +$210 06-29 12:35
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +4,100 $3,036 74¢ $3.0K $-22 07-19 16:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No +2,800 $1,989 99¢ $2.8K +$779 07-18 00:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +3,090 $2,136 56¢ $1.7K $-422 07-19 16:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +3,024 $1,152 44¢ $1.3K +$194 07-21 03:27
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +1,625 $1,290 81¢ $1.3K +$26 07-21 14:46
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? No +1,200 $579 88¢ $1.1K +$483 07-16 14:12
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No +800 $648 82¢ $652 +$4 07-04 00:13
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +700 $616 90¢ $626 +$10 07-17 09:47
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +693 $540 86¢ $599 +$59 06-27 20:42
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No +600 $504 94¢ $567 +$63 06-02 23:50
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +700 $322 78¢ $550 +$228 06-20 13:09
Trump out as President before 2027? No +500 $450 92¢ $462 +$12 06-29 14:23
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +550 $388 71¢ $390 +$2 07-20 07:11
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +400 $360 90¢ $358 $-2 07-18 08:02
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No +400 $344 88¢ $350 +$6 07-16 18:30
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes +4,000 $400 $340 $-60 07-05 00:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +500 $247 64¢ $323 +$75 07-04 03:15
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +1,100 $249 26¢ $291 +$42 07-21 05:29
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +500 $312 56¢ $282 $-29 07-18 20:22
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +700 $282 34¢ $234 $-47 06-08 13:52
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +400 $206 54¢ $214 +$8 07-18 15:45
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +300 $232 71¢ $213 $-19 07-20 17:50
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? No +700 $196 30¢ $206 +$11 07-03 02:51
Kash Patel out by December 31? No +300 $105 63¢ $189 +$84 07-11 17:37
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes +200 $170 94¢ $187 +$17 06-03 08:51
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +280 $164 66¢ $186 +$23 07-19 23:03
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No +200 $182 90¢ $181 $-1 07-16 23:48
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $152 89¢ $177 +$25 06-05 01:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No +200 $132 82¢ $165 +$33 06-04 18:36