Writhing-Round — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8.43K

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

33.9%

Resolved

132

Trades

7,227

lifetime

Volume

$297.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-24

last 06-29 23:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 54% $-8,428

Politics

3% — —

Other

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 766 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes		+0	$0	55¢	$0	+$0	06-27 08:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4PM ET	59	$8.4K	17,853	0	+17,853	Down	$-1,183	05-07 20:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2PM ET	73	$7.2K	11,604	0	+11,604	Up	$-718	05-07 18:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9AM ET	262	$7.1K	12,460	2,000	+10,460	open	—	04-28 13:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET	43	$6.8K	11,923	0	+11,923	open	—	05-15 06:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2PM ET	202	$6.5K	13,165	0	+13,165	Down	$-772	05-06 18:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3PM ET	80	$5.9K	9,856	0	+9,856	Up	$-2,054	05-08 19:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3PM ET	109	$5.7K	10,587	0	+10,587	Up	$-598	05-05 19:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12PM ET	171	$5.4K	11,845	0	+11,845	open	—	05-01 16:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11AM ET	61	$5.4K	10,137	0	+10,137	open	—	05-01 15:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6AM ET	66	$4.9K	9,681	0	+9,681	open	—	04-30 10:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12PM ET	73	$4.8K	8,768	0	+8,768	open	—	04-30 16:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1PM ET	137	$4.6K	9,446	0	+9,446	open	—	04-30 17:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6AM ET	87	$4.6K	10,434	0	+10,434	Up	$-2,079	05-06 10:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1AM ET	65	$4.5K	6,728	0	+6,728	Up	$-543	05-05 05:52
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	1	$4.3K	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	05-23 22:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5AM ET	27	$4.2K	7,224	0	+7,224	Down	$-764	05-08 09:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6AM ET	76	$4.0K	9,650	0	+9,650	open	—	05-01 10:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1PM ET	101	$3.9K	7,088	500	+6,588	open	—	04-28 17:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3AM ET	58	$3.9K	6,318	0	+6,318	Up	$-626	05-08 07:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4AM ET	58	$3.7K	7,924	0	+7,924	open	—	04-29 09:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4PM ET	127	$3.6K	8,281	0	+8,281	Down	+$494	05-04 20:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2PM ET	9	$3.6K	7,405	0	+7,405	Up	$-1,205	05-05 18:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3PM ET	64	$3.5K	6,303	0	+6,303	open	—	04-30 19:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4PM ET	61	$3.5K	6,996	0	+6,996	Up	+$726	05-05 20:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET	159	$3.5K	7,756	0	+7,756	Down	+$237	05-05 07:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9AM ET	98	$3.4K	6,969	0	+6,969	open	—	05-04 13:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3PM ET	75	$3.3K	6,906	0	+6,906	Up	+$537	05-06 19:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11AM ET	138	$3.3K	6,516	0	+6,516	open	—	05-04 15:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12PM ET	78	$3.2K	8,541	0	+8,541	open	—	04-29 16:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2AM ET	107	$3.0K	7,013	0	+7,013	Up	+$600	05-06 06:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 23:44:43	will city protocol launch a token by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	80	33¢	$26	0x475ffa…
06-29 23:44:35	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	No	SELL	40	91¢	$36	0x09fb7a…
06-29 23:44:20	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	SELL	60	65¢	$39	0xf594b0…
06-29 23:44:02	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	SELL	70	56¢	$39	0x901a4c…
06-29 23:43:55	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	No	SELL	50	83¢	$42	0xf1f656…
06-29 23:43:19	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149 733 235 667 821	Yes	SELL	68	87¢	$59	0x694f98…
06-29 23:43:10	will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	237	10¢	$24	0x6d2f01…
06-29 23:42:56	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	No	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0x870b93…
06-29 23:42:41	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	No	SELL	99	72¢	$71	0xc8e028…
06-29 23:41:59	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	210	52¢	$109	0x8f4509…
06-29 23:41:53	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	No	SELL	150	79¢	$118	0x1bf467…
06-29 23:41:46	GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	126	98¢	$123	0xcea53a…
06-29 23:41:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	200	65¢	$130	0x6d48c9…
06-29 23:41:14	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	223	62¢	$139	0xe1ac09…
06-29 23:40:56	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	69¢	$137	0xdd3f6a…
06-29 23:39:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x29e2f1…
06-29 23:38:32	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	No	SELL	58	76¢	$44	0xb55caf…
06-29 23:38:10	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	No	SELL	27	77¢	$21	0x45ca27…
06-29 23:38:08	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	No	SELL	43	77¢	$33	0xc8e37e…
06-29 23:37:22	will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	183	42¢	$77	0x03c6ea…
06-29 23:36:59	will nansen launch a token by december 31 2027	Yes	SELL	110	43¢	$47	0x96f0a7…
06-29 23:36:25	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	411	55¢	$226	0x833076…
06-29 23:21:52	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	600	56¢	$336	0x2e513f…
06-29 23:20:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	600	61¢	$366	0xcf866d…
06-28 17:37:40	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	18	60¢	$10	0x9b4544…
06-28 17:34:16	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xec1df3…
06-28 17:34:16	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xab9be2…
06-28 17:25:08	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x57ab6e…
06-28 17:11:29	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x0931f9…
06-28 17:00:34	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	SELL	50	64¢	$32	0xf17cde…
06-28 16:59:16	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x339bb8…
06-28 16:55:04	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x08279f…
06-28 16:53:37	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x5968d3…
06-28 16:21:35	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x36d301…
06-28 16:21:31	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0xb430e7…
06-28 15:41:01	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	No	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0x8ada87…
06-28 15:15:41	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 31 2026 20260624195228149 733 235 667 821	Yes	BUY	68	80¢	$54	0x10c090…
06-28 15:03:04	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd4c1cc…
06-28 14:58:38	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x95eede…
06-28 14:48:14	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x435c8e…
06-28 14:38:11	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	100	62¢	$62	0xa36129…
06-28 14:36:47	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	No	SELL	50	82¢	$41	0x202e19…
06-28 14:36:44	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x508b8b…
06-28 14:22:35	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0xd358b4…
06-28 14:05:53	will usa reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149721	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x687bbd…
06-28 13:23:43	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0xca23ae…
06-28 13:17:05	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5ffd5d…
06-28 13:10:29	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x0deebc…
06-28 12:57:41	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xc9d2a1…
06-28 12:50:23	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x968d52…
06-28 12:49:28	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xff0c16…
06-28 12:49:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0xac92a1…
06-28 12:29:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xeefa75…
06-28 11:54:13	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0xe745ff…
06-28 10:51:56	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0x623283…
06-28 10:37:53	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x510c9a…
06-28 10:34:01	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xb53218…
06-28 09:40:11	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x0e043d…
06-28 09:39:37	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0x80a048…
06-28 08:46:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	64¢	$128	0x08b378…
06-28 08:44:58	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xcbf81b…
06-28 08:28:47	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	21	57¢	$12	0x8262fc…
06-28 08:13:16	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	25	57¢	$14	0xf03bf4…
06-28 08:05:56	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x83e61f…
06-28 07:29:53	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	31	56¢	$18	0xd21266…
06-28 07:29:26	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	105	54¢	$57	0xa683f1…
06-28 07:28:52	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	No	BUY	40	72¢	$29	0x6c33ee…
06-28 07:18:07	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	210	52¢	$109	0x752ee2…
06-28 07:17:04	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	No	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x52766d…
06-28 07:16:43	will portugal reach the quarterfinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145134507	No	BUY	50	74¢	$37	0xc56444…
06-28 07:13:58	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	48¢	$24	0x671dd4…
06-28 07:03:40	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0x026d63…
06-28 06:40:25	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x8a3918…
06-28 06:40:22	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x2c818c…
06-28 06:39:08	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x1dbafe…
06-28 06:39:02	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xf6a5ab…
06-28 06:39:01	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	80	54¢	$43	0xd2b32c…
06-28 06:38:41	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x2b39e8…
06-28 06:37:58	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0xc12e0b…
06-28 06:37:47	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0x1b9ad2…
06-28 06:37:44	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0xe4405c…
06-27 08:03:05	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	84	37¢	$31	0xeb12f5…
06-27 07:54:11	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	135	37¢	$50	0x684011…
06-27 07:48:46	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0xae51cb…
06-27 07:46:23	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0xce6c6f…
06-27 07:34:47	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	79	37¢	$29	0x4ea4ea…
06-27 07:34:10	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	81	37¢	$30	0xcea302…
06-27 07:17:07	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0x58e949…
06-27 07:07:13	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	52	37¢	$19	0x5de550…
06-27 06:47:04	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x9ae6af…
06-27 06:38:55	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x8416d5…
06-27 06:36:02	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	51¢	$204	0x6fea27…
06-27 06:35:14	Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Yes	SELL	346	37¢	$128	0x3af6e0…
06-26 08:07:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	457	40¢	$183	0xa4d3ac…
06-26 08:07:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	343	40¢	$137	0x9fe608…
06-26 06:06:58	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	500	63¢	$315	0xfed3bf…
06-25 23:33:46	will the us announce a blockade on iran by december 31 20260622191116913	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x12dd27…
06-25 20:03:26	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xbb4ca0…
06-25 20:02:41	will neymar score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611145108553	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0x8d11cb…
06-25 19:48:59	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0x42cade…