Sophisticated-Tugboat 0x8e824a…415fad
bot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$102
Unrealized P&L
-$21
Hit rate
74.4%
Resolved
298
Trades
785
lifetime
Volume
$15.0K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$19
Open exposure
$1.21K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 10-28 23:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 137 days
Categories
Other
56% 43% +$709
Politics
33% 31% -$598
Crypto
6% 46% +$21
Sports
4% 41% -$59
Tech
1% 86% +$28
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
41 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +340 $291 82¢ $277 -$14 10-25 03:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +130 $103 90¢ $116 +$13 09-25 16:27
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No +100 $86 90¢ $90 +$4 10-02 16:37
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +100 $83 86¢ $86 +$4 10-02 16:38
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes -91 -$28 90¢ $-81 -$53 05-23 19:17
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes +100 $72 70¢ $70 -$1 10-22 20:23
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +130 $47 46¢ $59 +$12 10-27 21:30
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +77 $65 68¢ $52 -$13 10-28 23:07
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No -60 -$33 83¢ $-50 -$17 06-12 02:15
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes +50 $27 68¢ $34 +$8 07-01 21:27
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes +40 $28 85¢ $34 +$6 10-19 18:04
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +30 $26 96¢ $29 +$3 10-19 18:05
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +30 $20 72¢ $22 +$2 10-05 19:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +20 $15 96¢ $19 +$4 10-09 22:59
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? Yes +20 $15 94¢ $19 +$4 10-09 23:01
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +20 $13 88¢ $18 +$5 10-19 15:26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No +20 $16 84¢ $17 +$1 09-09 13:30
No one announced as next James Bond? No +20 $16 78¢ $16 $0 10-28 17:40
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? Yes +20 $11 74¢ $15 +$3 10-19 18:04
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +20 $13 68¢ $14 +$1 10-19 18:07
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +20 $11 68¢ $14 +$3 09-09 13:28
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +20 $14 66¢ $13 -$1 10-19 15:29
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? Yes +40 $12 32¢ $13 +$0 10-28 15:54
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +20 $11 56¢ $11 $0 10-09 22:59
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +100 $12 9¢ $9 -$2 09-14 22:19
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +12 $10 71¢ $9 -$1 09-11 11:41
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +20 $8 40¢ $8 $0 10-09 23:00
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +20 $5 30¢ $6 +$1 09-24 20:16
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes -100 -$14 6¢ $-6 +$8 06-12 15:46
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +10 $6 56¢ $6 -$1 09-14 21:59