Realized P&L
+$26.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$37.1K
Hit rate
97.3%
Resolved
41
Trades
84,822
lifetime
Volume
$29.7M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$350
Open exposure
$158.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-15 12:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Politics
66% 90% +$27,413
Other
26% 60% $-908
Crypto
8% 56% $-31
Tech
1%
Sports
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 1613 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +101,829 $49,097 97¢ $98.5K +$49,422 06-15 01:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +17,741 $12,764 72¢ $12.9K +$98 06-15 04:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +9,665 $9,017 98¢ $9.5K +$459 06-15 05:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +21,689 $4,262 28¢ $6.0K +$1,702 06-14 21:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +9,444 $4,178 48¢ $4.6K +$403 06-11 20:48
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +4,749 $2,358 88¢ $4.2K +$1,844 06-14 21:45
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +4,070 $3,126 84¢ $3.4K +$303 06-15 00:56
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -2,875 $-2,786 95¢ $-2725 +$62 06-06 08:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No +2,259 $2,123 95¢ $2.2K +$30 06-03 08:54
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No +1,955 $690 95¢ $1.9K +$1,167 06-07 19:50
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No -1,535 $-1,400 96¢ $-1466 $-66 06-11 20:02
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Yes -1,183 $-1,159 99¢ $-1173 $-14 05-31 04:24
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +1,211 $1,108 93¢ $1.1K +$18 06-08 01:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +31,347 $20,560 $1.0K $-19,541 06-14 15:02
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes +3,333 $667 29¢ $950 +$283 06-04 21:56
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +5,894 $-330 16¢ $928 +$1,258 06-14 23:42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes +2,222 $689 38¢ $833 +$144 06-02 11:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +6,053 $676 12¢ $696 +$20 06-15 12:33
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -728 $-691 94¢ $-688 +$4 06-04 15:22
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +1,000 $569 50¢ $505 $-64 06-12 17:44
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No +500 $495 100¢ $500 +$5 06-14 11:20
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes +1,692 $325 26¢ $448 +$123 06-13 01:04
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes +503 $438 88¢ $441 +$3 06-13 21:48
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? No -360 $-310 86¢ $-311 $-2 06-12 18:06
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes +35,427 $313 $266 $-47 05-29 18:17
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +7,608 $791 $240 $-551 06-15 12:52
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No +224 $191 90¢ $203 +$12 06-06 22:34
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026? Yes +167 $162 100¢ $167 +$5 06-03 19:35
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No -160 $-151 95¢ $-151 +$0 06-13 20:25
Will Elon register any party before 2027? No +137 $126 94¢ $129 +$3 06-06 21:32