Realized P&L
+$26.5K
Unrealized P&L
+$610
Hit rate
97.3%
Resolved
41
Trades
87,719
lifetime
Volume
$32.6M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$372
Open exposure
$57.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-05 18:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 11 days
Categories
Politics
68% 90% +$27,413
Other
24% 60% $-908
Crypto
7% 56% $-31
Tech
0%
Sports
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 1613 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +17,741 $12,764 100¢ $17.7K +$4,950 06-15 04:37
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +7,153 $5,343 100¢ $7.1K +$1,803 06-30 16:33
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No -6,247 $-5,875 94¢ $-5903 $-28 07-02 14:39
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No -5,135 $-4,922 94¢ $-4852 +$70 06-22 14:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +4,269 $1,936 88¢ $3.8K +$1,842 06-17 05:43
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -2,875 $-2,786 96¢ $-2758 +$29 06-06 08:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes +6,103 $2,607 40¢ $2.4K $-197 06-29 08:30
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes +2,115 $1,901 100¢ $2.1K +$212 06-20 15:09
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? Yes +2,141 $2,017 98¢ $2.1K +$92 06-19 08:09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +11,053 $1,226 12¢ $1.3K +$45 06-21 16:04
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No -1,223 $-1,160 97¢ $-1185 $-25 06-17 13:12
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +1,211 $1,108 95¢ $1.1K +$40 06-08 01:59
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes +3,847 $749 26¢ $1.0K +$271 06-28 16:55
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No +1,000 $775 80¢ $795 +$20 06-16 17:03
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Yes +791 $813 100¢ $790 $-23 06-30 19:43
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +1,000 $569 74¢ $735 +$166 06-12 17:44
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes +1,692 $325 20¢ $347 +$22 06-13 01:04
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +438 $324 76¢ $335 +$11 06-16 15:10
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? No -360 $-310 91¢ $-328 $-18 06-12 18:06
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +1,000 $614 26¢ $265 $-349 06-20 08:26
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No +224 $191 90¢ $202 +$11 06-06 22:34
Will Elon register any party before 2027? No +137 $126 96¢ $132 +$5 06-06 21:32
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes +913 $133 10¢ $87 $-46 06-22 16:52
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? Yes +160 $34 24¢ $38 +$4 06-28 16:24
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No +932 $79 $35 $-43 06-25 20:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +6,191 $3,567 $9 $-3,557 06-30 20:21
Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? Yes +17 $6 50¢ $9 +$2 06-23 06:16
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes +7,036 $4,300 $7 $-4,293 07-02 21:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +10 $3 16¢ $2 $-1 06-09 14:33
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No +1,000 $404 $1 $-403 06-19 23:51