Scratchy-Loading — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.66K

Unrealized P&L

+$9.91K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

7,325

lifetime

Volume

$3.76M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$513

Open exposure

$64.6K

17 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-01 00:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

65% 100% +$4,794

Other

32% 100% +$868

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 167 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+26,403	$20,963	82¢	$21.8K	+$820	06-25 13:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+15,451	$13,940	99¢	$15.3K	+$1,388	07-01 00:10
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	+5,614	$-3,026	100¢	$5.6K	+$8,628	06-29 19:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	+14,519	$6,278	30¢	$4.4K	$-1,850	06-30 22:57
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	-3,450	$-3,356	100¢	$-3446	$-90	06-08 22:45
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	-3,062	$-2,836	88¢	$-2679	+$157	06-30 23:05
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,912	$2,407	86¢	$2.5K	+$112	06-30 07:39
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	-2,157	$-1,838	91¢	$-1963	$-125	06-08 06:40
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	-2,214	$-2,353	86¢	$-1893	+$460	06-15 00:05
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	+1,169	$993	100¢	$1.2K	+$170	06-17 02:10
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	+1,233	$961	80¢	$992	+$31	06-22 07:06
Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	+944	$831	100¢	$943	+$113	06-15 19:27
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	+849	$705	90¢	$760	+$55	05-29 11:25
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	-603	$-1,101	100¢	$-603	+$498	06-15 06:39
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+502	$46	84¢	$419	+$373	06-15 19:28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	+12,189	$928	1¢	$98	$-831	06-25 21:10
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	+8	$8	100¢	$8	+$0	06-08 20:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	272	$133.4K	109,853	85,798	+24,055	open	—	03-11 11:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	256	$108.8K	63,768	59,921	+3,848	open	—	03-01 16:45
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	49	$102.0K	85,353	24,973	+60,380	open	—	06-03 21:40
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	96	$96.7K	50,270	54,185	-3,915	open	—	05-27 17:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	127	$64.7K	38,872	38,872	+0	open	—	04-25 23:07
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	27	$56.4K	51,503	45,503	+6,000	open	—	04-08 21:14
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	27	$55.4K	32,395	32,395	+0	open	—	04-09 12:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	66	$55.0K	46,267	30,134	+16,133	open	—	04-28 22:19
netanyahu out by march 31 854	102	$54.3K	27,194	29,063	-1,869	open	—	03-20 08:26
us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983	11	$53.1K	29,834	23,500	+6,334	open	—	01-04 19:16
will eleven die in stranger things season 5	15	$51.5K	25,931	25,931	+0	open	—	01-01 18:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	39	$50.9K	24,852	27,352	-2,500	Yes	+$2,908	05-09 18:41
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	172	$50.5K	82,335	74,406	+7,929	open	—	05-31 08:59
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	91	$48.7K	25,922	24,528	+1,394	open	—	02-28 12:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	49	$48.3K	49,039	44,041	+4,999	open	—	06-17 11:31
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	59	$46.8K	36,614	28,461	+8,154	open	—	01-30 19:03
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	32	$45.3K	24,889	24,526	+363	open	—	04-12 14:33
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	64	$44.4K	28,237	19,972	+8,265	open	—	05-14 23:14
Trump out as President by April 30?	44	$42.2K	21,500	21,500	+0	open	—	04-11 13:53
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	84	$39.3K	31,585	20,463	+11,122	open	—	05-01 02:48
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	42	$37.4K	23,908	15,500	+8,408	open	—	03-01 00:16
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	11	$34.4K	34,570	0	+34,570	open	—	01-03 11:33
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	61	$34.0K	19,674	19,674	+0	open	—	04-12 19:18
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	34	$33.8K	25,690	10,563	+15,127	open	—	06-18 07:05
us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	41	$31.1K	18,951	14,890	+4,061	open	—	02-06 18:32
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	58	$30.1K	15,306	15,306	+0	open	—	05-20 22:24
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	57	$29.2K	28,488	28,488	+0	open	—	02-28 09:12
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	72	$27.7K	16,096	16,096	+0	open	—	03-27 19:45
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	27	$27.3K	17,477	10,700	+6,777	open	—	02-08 21:11
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	24	$26.4K	13,846	16,208	-2,362	open	—	04-22 06:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-01 00:10:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9ffcf0…
07-01 00:10:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7010b1…
07-01 00:10:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,608	100¢	$1,601	0x5e6bbf…
07-01 00:06:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$41	0x3fa936…
06-30 23:24:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x2273d1…
06-30 23:12:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa6f398…
06-30 23:11:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x567a53…
06-30 23:05:13	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	71	88¢	$63	0x21fe2e…
06-30 23:05:11	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	214	88¢	$189	0x7db965…
06-30 23:00:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	71	100¢	$71	0x5d51a8…
06-30 22:57:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,500	32¢	$480	0x8ec454…
06-30 22:52:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xcf4f32…
06-30 21:57:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x03f616…
06-30 21:47:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x0d3407…
06-30 21:33:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3ccde6…
06-30 20:45:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xd58e10…
06-30 20:35:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	75	100¢	$75	0x383da9…
06-30 20:27:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,062	100¢	$1,058	0xc794b2…
06-30 20:25:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	370	100¢	$369	0x13d94c…
06-30 20:21:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0xefe0ec…
06-30 20:21:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0x5129d2…
06-30 20:21:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x1005ea…
06-30 20:21:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x0c1313…
06-30 20:21:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xe9e118…
06-30 20:21:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xce1362…
06-30 20:21:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	78	100¢	$78	0xb03b2d…
06-30 20:21:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x9b8644…
06-30 20:21:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x8e8d3e…
06-30 20:21:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x1b46a1…
06-30 20:21:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	114	100¢	$113	0x6ada95…
06-30 20:21:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	1,163	100¢	$1,158	0x2f9815…
06-30 19:57:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0xbc3a68…
06-30 18:57:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x25d525…
06-30 16:08:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	23	88¢	$20	0xa15ca2…
06-30 12:01:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	8	88¢	$7	0x74cf14…
06-30 10:51:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	2,093	16¢	$335	0x7e98dd…
06-30 08:11:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	1,200	88¢	$1,056	0x8f553e…
06-30 08:05:47	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0x624338…
06-30 07:39:28	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	197	85¢	$167	0xc20d01…
06-30 07:39:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	115	85¢	$98	0x11b70a…
06-29 19:16:22	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,600	87¢	$2,262	0xbc47ce…
06-29 19:16:02	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	2,500	100¢	$2,490	0xed4689…
06-29 16:40:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	38	88¢	$33	0x92b5c7…
06-28 23:47:31	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	7	88¢	$6	0x87add4…
06-28 22:40:23	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6,000	89¢	$5,340	0xd76e11…
06-28 10:31:59	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0x1d476e…
06-28 08:44:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	284	88¢	$250	0x6faa89…
06-27 20:55:58	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	7	88¢	$6	0xb8949f…
06-27 15:19:23	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	57	88¢	$50	0x7a0db7…
06-27 15:15:23	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	19	88¢	$16	0xd930de…
06-27 10:28:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	232	96¢	$222	0xfa4ceb…
06-27 10:26:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	0	96¢	$0	0x2e46e5…
06-27 10:25:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	6,360	96¢	$6,080	0x75a618…
06-27 03:37:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	165	88¢	$145	0x8671e0…
06-26 20:43:22	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5,815	97¢	$5,640	0x494070…
06-26 16:40:32	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	2,500	84¢	$2,100	0xca723f…
06-26 16:06:43	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	285	88¢	$251	0xb8283a…
06-26 15:55:05	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	5,000	86¢	$4,300	0xf1410c…
06-26 00:05:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0x42778a…
06-26 00:00:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	Yes	BUY	1,346	13¢	$175	0xa8b94e…
06-25 23:49:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	2,500	28¢	$700	0x69264b…
06-25 22:44:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	1,412	27¢	$381	0x8f6043…
06-25 21:10:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5,434	5¢	$277	0x74a9b0…
06-25 20:04:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x835685…
06-25 19:36:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x6e3b40…
06-25 19:36:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2,076	5¢	$106	0x1e9342…
06-25 18:55:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xc5a377…
06-25 16:46:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xaf9119…
06-25 16:40:16	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x5b394a…
06-25 16:10:50	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	108	88¢	$95	0x60be5c…
06-25 15:55:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	1,500	34¢	$510	0xe4f850…
06-25 15:55:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	1,597	36¢	$575	0xd61f9f…
06-25 15:27:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,000	8¢	$75	0x3627bb…
06-25 15:22:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x45a8ad…
06-25 15:22:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	219	8¢	$16	0xb611ba…
06-25 15:22:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	242	8¢	$18	0x97213c…
06-25 15:19:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x552445…
06-25 14:53:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	13	88¢	$11	0x440738…
06-25 13:02:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3,000	89¢	$2,670	0x5ebb86…
06-25 10:47:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	4,972	7¢	$328	0xf0929d…
06-25 10:43:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	28	7¢	$2	0x2159ca…
06-25 10:20:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	13,198	7¢	$868	0x970156…
06-25 09:56:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,863	95¢	$1,762	0xc73cbd…
06-25 07:10:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	2,000	36¢	$720	0xe21507…
06-24 23:24:28	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5,406	95¢	$5,136	0x2298a3…
06-24 23:20:20	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x0aa569…
06-24 23:19:56	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xca4abc…
06-24 23:19:52	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x7719ca…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xd9dab6…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xcae479…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xc0c940…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xa213d7…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x638ea8…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x61110e…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x5a5e9e…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x4f34c0…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x3a99b6…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x21f405…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x18e575…
06-24 23:19:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x11d213…