Velvety-Confirmation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$230

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,467

lifetime

Volume

$159.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$109

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-12 12:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

68% 50% +$68

Politics

32% 100% +$162

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 98 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	11	$6.7K	5,110	5,110	+0	open	—	02-28 18:56
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?	39	$6.1K	3,499	3,123	+376	open	—	07-28 15:37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	24	$5.2K	4,282	4,282	+0	open	—	04-20 13:50
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$3.6K	2,070	2,070	+0	open	—	05-10 20:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	8	$3.6K	3,038	3,038	+0	open	—	05-09 11:14
will russia capture orikhiv by december 31 2026	2	$3.0K	4,034	0	+4,034	open	—	06-23 14:49
will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	32	$2.9K	2,350	2,343	+8	open	—	08-11 05:17
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	8	$2.8K	2,543	2,543	+0	open	—	04-08 07:24
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	9	$2.8K	1,923	1,923	+0	open	—	05-23 20:45
will russia capture orikhiv by september 30 2026	10	$2.7K	1,500	1,419	+81	open	—	07-31 14:49
will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	50	$2.7K	2,703	2,703	+0	open	—	07-20 21:57
will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	6	$2.6K	3,500	500	+3,000	open	—	07-30 18:24
will russia capture oleksiievo druzhkivka by december 31 2026 20260706174556071	12	$2.6K	3,481	0	+3,481	open	—	08-04 14:29
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30?	1	$2.5K	0	2,594	-2,594	open	—	06-02 23:27
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	9	$2.5K	1,826	1,826	+0	open	—	03-30 02:00
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	21	$2.4K	3,155	3,155	+0	open	—	07-07 17:58
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	6	$2.4K	1,524	1,524	+0	open	—	03-26 08:31
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	21	$2.4K	1,805	1,804	+1	open	—	04-20 12:41
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	7	$2.4K	2,110	2,110	+0	open	—	04-07 21:50
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	38	$2.3K	1,842	1,922	-80	open	—	04-20 12:42
will russia capture bilytske by september 30 2026 564	42	$2.1K	1,554	1,432	+122	open	—	08-12 07:29
will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	7	$2.1K	2,619	0	+2,619	open	—	08-08 23:55
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	9	$2.0K	1,612	1,612	+0	open	—	04-20 13:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	11	$2.0K	1,725	1,725	+0	open	—	04-07 21:49
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by march 31 2026 627	4	$2.0K	1,203	1,203	+0	open	—	03-13 10:03
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	4	$1.9K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$94	05-07 22:25
will the us invade iran by march 31	4	$1.9K	1,105	1,105	+0	open	—	03-19 19:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	2	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$68	05-09 16:44
will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	8	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	07-03 03:21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	2	$1.8K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	05-09 15:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 12:46:12	will russia capture novyi donbas by august 31 20260724163321935	No	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0xe1a494…
08-12 07:35:16	will russia target kyiv by august 10 2026 20260809090428975	Yes	BUY	516	19¢	$97	0x659190…
08-12 07:29:52	will russia capture bilytske by september 30 2026 564	No	SELL	8	68¢	$5	0xeaac65…
08-12 07:28:37	will russia capture bilytske by september 30 2026 564	No	SELL	59	68¢	$40	0x4493ff…
08-12 07:28:18	will russia capture bilytske by september 30 2026 564	No	SELL	25	68¢	$17	0x88d4e9…
08-12 07:28:03	will russia capture bilytske by september 30 2026 564	No	SELL	159	68¢	$108	0xcd35d4…
08-12 07:28:03	will russia capture bilytske by september 30 2026 564	No	SELL	21	68¢	$14	0xbc3c04…
08-12 07:28:03	will russia capture bilytske by september 30 2026 564	No	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0x728d4e…
08-12 06:56:34	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	Yes	BUY	70	72¢	$50	0x72897f…
08-12 06:04:34	will russia capture bilytske by september 30 2026 564	No	SELL	27	68¢	$19	0x9d1b05…
08-12 06:04:33	will russia capture bilytske by september 30 2026 564	No	SELL	68	68¢	$46	0x44a833…
08-12 04:39:54	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by december 31	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xb3a813…
08-12 01:49:55	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	Yes	BUY	150	72¢	$108	0x693972…
08-12 01:30:43	will russia capture novyi donbas by august 31 20260724163321935	No	SELL	3	86¢	$3	0xc321fa…
08-12 01:23:15	will russia capture novyi donbas by august 31 20260724163321935	No	SELL	8	86¢	$7	0x75a0dd…
08-12 01:20:36	will russia capture novyi donbas by august 31 20260724163321935	No	SELL	30	86¢	$26	0x3ee94f…
08-11 07:28:58	will russia capture bilytske by september 30 2026 564	No	SELL	360	68¢	$245	0xa58d06…
08-11 05:17:51	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	No	SELL	723	60¢	$434	0x11a83c…
08-11 04:50:57	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x0f18fa…
08-11 03:55:00	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	Yes	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0xee4e59…
08-11 01:44:01	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$5	0x510e22…
08-11 01:11:36	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x9504f6…
08-10 21:53:09	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb431a3…
08-10 21:06:36	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	Yes	BUY	438	72¢	$315	0x07ea59…
08-10 21:01:30	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	Yes	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0x293f58…
08-10 21:00:55	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	Yes	BUY	309	65¢	$200	0x64cf79…
08-10 20:57:24	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x3abf74…
08-10 20:57:03	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by december 31	No	SELL	100	28¢	$28	0xb6705a…
08-10 20:55:45	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	No	SELL	1,600	60¢	$964	0x1f4299…
08-10 12:02:48	will russia enter hannivka by september 30 2026 20260729205140183	No	SELL	109	44¢	$48	0x39fc36…
08-10 08:21:13	will russia enter hannivka by september 30 2026 20260729205140183	No	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x7d78b2…
08-09 22:58:39	will russia capture svitle by october 31 20260805161409631	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xcc4236…
08-09 15:28:54	will russia capture novyi donbas by october 31 20260724163321936	No	BUY	100	60¢	$60	0xcdd95f…
08-09 08:46:30	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by december 31	No	SELL	175	24¢	$42	0xc666da…
08-09 08:46:18	will russia capture rai oleksandrivka by december 31	No	SELL	205	25¢	$51	0x8919a8…
08-09 01:29:58	will russia capture svitle by october 31 20260805161409631	No	BUY	187	70¢	$131	0xcdc86c…
08-09 00:11:45	will russia capture svitle by october 31 20260805161409631	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xaef1f9…
08-09 00:11:21	will russia capture svitle by october 31 20260805161409631	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x1794f3…
08-08 23:55:46	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	271	74¢	$201	0xa10f7e…
08-08 14:43:31	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	Yes	BUY	308	9¢	$28	0x48dcf9…
08-07 07:26:37	will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	No	SELL	103	45¢	$46	0x461499…
08-07 07:05:58	will wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027 20260723171611669	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$120	0x02c266…
08-07 04:43:34	will russia capture vodianske by december 31 20260724162613572	No	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x7bcc49…
08-06 17:45:51	will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	No	BUY	103	40¢	$41	0xc1a29e…
08-06 12:56:03	will russia capture shevchenko by august 31 20260805162837388	Yes	BUY	545	8¢	$46	0xd5d1a5…
08-06 12:52:20	will russia capture svitle by october 31 20260805161409631	No	BUY	980	48¢	$470	0xdb1d80…
08-06 12:52:20	will russia capture svitle by october 31 20260805161409631	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xd146da…
08-06 12:22:47	will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	No	BUY	0	40¢	$0	0x4ac78e…
08-06 12:14:26	will russia enter dobropillia by october 31	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x50a774…
08-06 12:14:18	will russia enter dobropillia by october 31	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x92551f…
08-06 12:13:48	will russia enter dobropillia by october 31	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xb759f4…
08-06 12:13:48	will russia enter dobropillia by october 31	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x0713ff…
08-05 18:57:12	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	No	BUY	45	64¢	$29	0x92e552…
08-05 18:57:03	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	No	BUY	55	64¢	$35	0x7ddd30…
08-05 07:34:00	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	48	44¢	$21	0x35da35…
08-05 07:33:59	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x5759ec…
08-05 07:33:59	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	52	44¢	$23	0x52c26e…
08-04 20:51:05	will russia capture vodianske by december 31 20260724162613572	No	BUY	22	40¢	$9	0x04afd1…
08-04 19:37:59	will russia enter dobropillia by october 31	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x80da56…
08-04 14:29:36	will russia capture oleksiievo druzhkivka by december 31 2026 20260706174556071	No	BUY	500	63¢	$315	0x763b37…
08-04 12:32:20	will russia capture vodianske by december 31 20260724162613572	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x75a74f…
08-04 12:32:12	will russia capture vodianske by december 31 20260724162613572	No	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x3099b5…
08-04 12:32:09	will russia capture vodianske by december 31 20260724162613572	No	BUY	94	40¢	$37	0x66ceba…
08-04 10:02:18	will russia capture vodianske by december 31 20260724162613572	No	BUY	54	40¢	$22	0xf4e436…
08-04 08:44:06	will russia capture stavky by september 30	No	BUY	29	65¢	$19	0x2941d9…
08-04 03:19:47	will russia capture stavky by september 30	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x33f1ce…
08-04 03:03:42	will russia capture stavky by september 30	No	BUY	99	65¢	$64	0xba7309…
08-03 19:40:35	will russia capture stavky by september 30	No	BUY	715	70¢	$500	0xce0b15…
08-03 18:17:21	will russia capture novyi donbas by october 31 20260724163321936	No	BUY	77	61¢	$47	0x3c18c0…
08-03 18:15:24	will russia enter dobropillia by october 31	No	BUY	54	42¢	$23	0xe32587…
08-02 20:32:02	will russia capture novyi donbas by october 31 20260724163321936	No	BUY	49	59¢	$29	0x39c379…
08-02 14:22:35	will russia capture novyi donbas by august 31 20260724163321935	No	BUY	28	80¢	$22	0x45f0d6…
08-02 14:05:51	will russia capture novyi donbas by october 31 20260724163321936	No	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0x7317a5…
08-02 13:44:38	will russia capture novyi donbas by august 31 20260724163321935	No	BUY	72	80¢	$58	0xc28b89…
08-02 00:27:38	will russia capture novyi donbas by october 31 20260724163321936	No	BUY	52	63¢	$33	0xc54b8e…
08-01 22:08:38	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x952e76…
07-31 18:54:02	will russia capture novyi donbas by august 31 20260724163321935	No	BUY	309	81¢	$250	0x87fcb4…
07-31 15:13:23	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	43¢	$0	0xb3f3a1…
07-31 15:11:18	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	99	43¢	$43	0x2ea974…
07-31 14:49:41	will russia capture orikhiv by september 30 2026	No	SELL	596	96¢	$572	0xb77d04…
07-31 12:17:09	will russia capture novyi donbas by august 31 20260724163321935	No	BUY	455	87¢	$396	0x9d8178…
07-31 09:22:56	will russia capture novyi donbas by october 31 20260724163321936	No	BUY	81	67¢	$54	0x8c6e0f…
07-31 09:22:08	will russia capture novyi donbas by october 31 20260724163321936	No	BUY	19	67¢	$13	0xecd7d5…
07-31 09:20:15	will russia capture novyi donbas by october 31 20260724163321936	No	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0x447375…
07-30 21:19:48	will russia capture oleksiievo druzhkivka by december 31 2026 20260706174556071	No	BUY	759	66¢	$501	0x56dde7…
07-30 21:14:59	will russia enter dobropillia by october 31	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x274f9d…
07-30 18:41:30	will russia capture vodianske by september 30 20260724162613571	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x750970…
07-30 18:24:14	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	186	81¢	$151	0x31551d…
07-30 15:11:09	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	103	81¢	$83	0xaf331f…
07-30 15:10:57	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	711	81¢	$576	0x760c3d…
07-30 14:12:57	will russia capture novyi donbas by august 31 20260724163321935	No	BUY	120	87¢	$104	0x403ebd…
07-30 13:30:44	will russia capture orikhiv by september 30 2026	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0xec0d11…
07-30 13:30:42	will russia capture orikhiv by september 30 2026	No	SELL	395	98¢	$387	0xaea615…
07-30 13:30:41	will russia capture orikhiv by september 30 2026	No	SELL	398	98¢	$390	0xa799e1…
07-29 23:33:11	will russia capture vodianske by september 30 20260724162613571	No	SELL	373	77¢	$287	0x398e37…
07-29 22:11:08	will russia capture all of bilytske by december 31	No	SELL	86	47¢	$40	0x36d34b…
07-29 11:36:41	will russia capture vodianske by september 30 20260724162613571	No	BUY	22	79¢	$17	0x13d542…
07-29 11:36:29	will russia capture vodianske by september 30 20260724162613571	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x433ab3…
07-29 11:36:27	will russia capture vodianske by september 30 20260724162613571	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xfa3be8…
07-29 11:36:26	will russia capture vodianske by september 30 20260724162613571	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xbc88e4…