Lasting-Dessert — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24.3K

Unrealized P&L

-$255

Hit rate

43.6%

Resolved

Trades

4,634

lifetime

Volume

$2.43M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$525

Open exposure

$33.5K

11 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 06:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

38% 0% $-25,020

Other

37% 100% +$675

Crypto

24% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 91 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+10,000	$8,500	86¢	$8.6K	+$50	06-08 10:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+6,752	$6,577	99¢	$6.7K	+$90	07-21 08:39
SBF released from custody in 2026?	No	+5,000	$4,770	95¢	$4.7K	$-42	07-02 15:44
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	+5,000	$4,300	88¢	$4.4K	+$125	07-02 08:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+5,000	$4,050	56¢	$2.8K	$-1,225	07-02 12:04
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,500	$1,800	88¢	$2.2K	+$400	07-02 07:36
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	No	+1,502	$1,439	98¢	$1.5K	+$28	07-01 22:22
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	-4,252	$-1,531	30¢	$-1254	+$276	05-29 17:09
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+800	$608	88¢	$700	+$92	07-02 15:40
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+659	$553	76¢	$504	$-49	07-02 16:27
Will Aster reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	-159	$-152	96¢	$-152	+$1	07-04 12:26

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	197	$98.2K	100,000	0	+100,000	open	—	02-02 23:46
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	251	$83.1K	88,021	0	+88,021	open	—	02-04 00:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	76	$61.8K	69,567	0	+69,567	open	—	05-26 04:49
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	9	$48.8K	25,000	25,000	+0	open	—	05-27 13:35
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	31	$45.8K	50,000	0	+50,000	open	—	05-22 23:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	22	$44.8K	0	50,000	-50,000	open	—	06-20 14:22
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	43	$33.7K	34,727	34,727	+0	open	—	05-26 02:17
will sza release a new song in 2025	12	$26.3K	26,413	0	+26,413	open	—	01-01 01:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	12	$26.0K	28,327	0	+28,327	open	—	05-03 17:19
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	11	$24.8K	25,285	0	+25,285	open	—	05-21 03:45
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	7	$24.7K	0	25,000	-25,000	open	—	06-15 18:41
netanyahu out by march 31 854	27	$23.9K	25,000	0	+25,000	open	—	03-17 23:19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	26	$22.9K	25,000	0	+25,000	open	—	04-27 02:02
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	12	$22.8K	24,500	0	+24,500	open	—	03-18 16:54
ethereum all time high by march 31 2026	44	$21.2K	10,991	11,108	-118	open	—	02-27 01:59
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	4	$19.7K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	02-02 23:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$18.9K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	04-11 22:37
Iran leadership change by May 31?	26	$18.0K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	05-22 10:09
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	29	$17.2K	20,000	0	+20,000	open	—	03-17 22:40
us forces in venezuela by january 31 2026	5	$17.1K	17,126	0	+17,126	open	—	01-03 12:08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	14	$16.4K	18,951	0	+18,951	open	—	04-24 03:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	29	$16.1K	20,889	0	+20,889	open	—	04-24 03:11
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	9	$15.5K	14,999	14,999	+0	open	—	05-26 02:16
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	15	$15.0K	14,999	14,999	+0	open	—	05-26 02:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	14	$14.8K	15,000	0	+15,000	open	—	05-15 11:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	3	$14.5K	15,000	0	+15,000	open	—	05-22 08:52
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	22	$14.4K	15,000	0	+15,000	open	—	04-11 22:02
will iran strike israel on march 10	7	$14.3K	14,790	0	+14,790	open	—	03-12 23:50
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	4	$14.2K	15,000	0	+15,000	open	—	03-12 06:39
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	24	$14.2K	14,937	0	+14,937	open	—	03-17 02:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 08:39:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x3bafac…
07-21 08:37:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0xfb2f8c…
07-21 08:36:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	143	99¢	$141	0x1d7564…
07-21 08:32:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3ab5af…
07-21 08:32:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2e2eff…
07-21 08:31:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd525d3…
07-21 08:27:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xaa9ff8…
07-21 07:58:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7241e0…
07-21 07:57:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6e61e2…
07-21 07:57:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x13ae43…
07-21 07:56:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x727e4c…
07-21 07:55:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0x3c9bb3…
07-21 07:54:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x52cccb…
07-21 07:53:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf847fd…
07-21 07:51:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x63e8fe…
07-21 07:51:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3b5808…
07-21 07:50:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd131b5…
07-21 07:48:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2ef037…
07-21 07:45:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa7d4f1…
07-21 07:43:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	467	99¢	$461	0x6248de…
07-21 07:42:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	214	99¢	$211	0x0b452d…
07-21 07:36:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x849f35…
07-21 07:30:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x477bcc…
07-21 07:29:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x31256f…
07-21 07:29:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfe32f8…
07-21 07:27:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x93214c…
07-21 07:25:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa6323b…
07-21 07:24:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xccddde…
07-21 07:23:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf13463…
07-21 07:22:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x05f2f5…
07-21 07:22:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x59d7e6…
07-21 07:20:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe882f6…
07-21 06:36:18	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	5,000	85¢	$4,250	0x63002a…
07-21 06:04:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0x2e3db8…
07-21 05:48:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	117	99¢	$116	0x07af58…
07-21 05:34:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x1f011a…
07-21 04:54:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	71	99¢	$70	0x8ded88…
07-21 04:02:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	214	99¢	$211	0x3d8c37…
07-21 03:41:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x787235…
07-20 11:30:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	2,596	84¢	$2,180	0x77d121…
07-20 11:28:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x9cb5db…
07-20 11:22:45	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	488	84¢	$410	0x7fdee9…
07-20 10:20:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0x505621…
07-20 10:20:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x061f56…
07-20 10:20:06	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xdd4148…
07-20 09:55:51	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x9d7e93…
07-20 09:54:01	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xd1a3fa…
07-20 09:49:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,874	84¢	$1,574	0x19872d…
07-13 23:15:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	802	97¢	$778	0x8e643e…
07-13 23:08:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	24	97¢	$24	0x5887a9…
07-13 23:07:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	24	97¢	$24	0xfce832…
07-13 23:07:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	14	97¢	$14	0x7c179c…
07-13 22:49:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x31f1d0…
07-13 22:47:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x13f111…
07-13 22:38:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	62	97¢	$60	0xb547b6…
07-13 22:32:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x2709b2…
07-13 22:23:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	7	97¢	$6	0x659514…
07-13 22:17:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xa508bc…
07-13 22:14:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	257	97¢	$249	0x2d63d4…
07-13 22:13:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xdd9915…
07-13 21:56:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	333	97¢	$323	0x64598d…
07-13 21:55:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x7cfd3d…
07-13 21:54:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	2,833	97¢	$2,748	0xc4bb33…
07-13 21:32:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9f10e6…
07-13 21:31:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	125	97¢	$121	0x260739…
07-13 21:02:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x313156…
07-13 20:58:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe42e64…
07-13 20:54:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x0980cc…
07-13 20:50:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x4e6044…
07-13 20:49:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x2597b1…
07-13 20:48:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	144	97¢	$139	0xc549d7…
07-04 12:26:43	Will Aster reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x43d792…
07-04 12:16:11	Will Aster reach $2.20 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	49	96¢	$47	0x4bca01…
07-02 16:48:35	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	1,385	97¢	$1,344	0x6fa0f4…
07-02 16:48:05	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	481	97¢	$467	0xaae35c…
07-02 16:27:53	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	400	84¢	$336	0x2bbecf…
07-02 15:59:59	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	973	98¢	$958	0x7dc058…
07-02 15:51:19	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	2,961	97¢	$2,866	0x8a586b…
07-02 15:48:34	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x8601c1…
07-02 15:44:31	SBF released from custody in 2026?	No	BUY	2,289	95¢	$2,183	0x948a0c…
07-02 15:40:08	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	87	76¢	$66	0xb592df…
07-02 15:40:01	SBF released from custody in 2026?	No	BUY	152	95¢	$145	0x62e739…
07-02 15:39:05	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	607	98¢	$597	0x3cba06…
07-02 15:31:25	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	4,741	99¢	$4,688	0x8c8195…
07-02 15:19:05	SBF released from custody in 2026?	No	BUY	104	95¢	$99	0xa98494…
07-02 15:06:20	SBF released from custody in 2026?	No	BUY	1,045	95¢	$997	0xf308c0…
07-02 15:01:04	SBF released from custody in 2026?	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x272535…
07-02 14:57:25	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	BUY	3,417	98¢	$3,363	0x14c02d…
07-02 14:39:29	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	76¢	$24	0xce8f76…
07-02 13:52:10	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	66	84¢	$55	0x2c028f…
07-02 13:23:05	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xfc7838…
07-02 12:04:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5,000	81¢	$4,050	0xafb1e7…
07-02 08:42:25	Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	5,000	86¢	$4,300	0x171bd1…
07-02 07:36:46	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	55	72¢	$39	0x9377ba…
07-02 06:48:10	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x09102d…
07-02 06:15:25	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x1db365…
07-02 05:32:19	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	259	99¢	$257	0x33fa89…
07-02 03:45:40	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	BUY	2,500	85¢	$2,125	0x514a55…
07-02 03:45:38	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	580	72¢	$418	0xaf65ea…
07-02 02:49:08	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x8100db…