Circular-Sandpaper-Larder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$608

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.4%

Resolved

Trades

3,340

lifetime

Volume

$1.03M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$309

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-01

last 08-11 02:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

43% — —

Politics

39% 40% +$605

Crypto

17% 100% +$3

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

79 active days in 12wk • peak 147 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	42	$110.6K	62,136	65,457	-3,321	open	—	05-10 17:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	26	$100.7K	52,133	52,133	+0	No	+$564	05-11 03:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	19	$59.4K	36,849	28,031	+8,819	open	—	05-10 14:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	20	$50.6K	29,113	29,113	+0	open	—	05-11 04:47
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	54	$48.4K	24,376	25,409	-1,033	open	—	05-19 05:37
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	61	$44.1K	21,812	23,612	-1,800	open	—	05-09 01:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	68	$41.7K	36,933	38,732	-1,799	open	—	05-27 21:57
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May?	48	$32.8K	15,912	19,820	-3,908	open	—	05-19 05:18
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	16	$28.7K	16,208	16,208	+0	open	—	05-24 21:03
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	71	$25.5K	13,828	14,025	-198	open	—	05-19 05:15
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	56	$25.2K	8,316	18,388	-10,073	open	—	06-11 17:43
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	72	$22.9K	21,392	21,768	-377	open	—	05-19 05:48
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	41	$22.4K	10,733	12,371	-1,637	open	—	05-31 20:35
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	36	$21.5K	10,895	11,497	-601	open	—	05-14 20:47
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	9	$17.1K	8,381	9,157	-777	open	—	05-15 03:25
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	176	$17.1K	11,938	9,728	+2,210	open	—	07-23 13:50
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	32	$16.3K	2,652	20,052	-17,400	open	—	08-10 02:54
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	47	$11.7K	4,845	7,449	-2,604	open	—	07-05 02:56
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	19	$11.3K	9,436	4,014	+5,422	open	—	05-30 08:49
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	37	$11.0K	6,345	5,654	+691	open	—	06-15 16:29
Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	53	$10.5K	5,471	6,336	-866	open	—	05-19 16:31
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	13	$10.0K	7,998	7,998	+0	open	—	05-18 21:24
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	83	$9.7K	5,824	5,824	+0	open	—	07-15 09:22
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	6	$9.3K	4,783	4,723	+61	No	+$70	05-09 06:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	73	$8.5K	7,913	7,113	+800	open	—	06-15 01:40
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	3	$7.8K	0	8,180	-8,180	open	—	06-01 11:10
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	41	$7.3K	7,017	950	+6,067	open	—	07-19 01:13
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?	34	$7.0K	3,048	4,156	-1,108	open	—	05-19 16:31
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	39	$6.8K	3,601	4,501	-900	open	—	06-13 12:27
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	27	$6.6K	74,199	63,566	+10,634	open	—	06-17 16:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 02:49:04	will ethereum dip to 1250 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x47f3e3…
08-10 15:25:58	will ethereum dip to 1750 by december 31 2026 20260806184731889	No	BUY	100	21¢	$21	0x01744e…
08-10 15:13:03	will ethereum dip to 1750 by december 31 2026 20260806184731889	No	BUY	99	22¢	$22	0x5224a0…
08-10 15:00:42	will ethereum dip to 1750 by december 31 2026 20260806184731889	No	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0xbfdf22…
08-10 15:00:39	will ethereum dip to 1750 by december 31 2026 20260806184731889	No	BUY	94	23¢	$22	0x9f5e52…
08-10 12:27:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x8213b8…
08-10 09:54:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x5a21fd…
08-10 09:29:54	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xe75275…
08-10 08:37:19	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	93	60¢	$56	0x749403…
08-10 07:53:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xeb24fc…
08-10 06:39:22	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2c89a5…
08-10 06:00:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0x6fe82a…
08-10 06:00:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xbfc7a7…
08-10 06:00:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	151	74¢	$112	0x3efc91…
08-10 06:00:12	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x5b60a5…
08-10 05:59:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x93dfda…
08-10 05:59:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	300	61¢	$183	0x5cb78e…
08-10 05:59:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0x36c4d8…
08-10 05:57:40	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xa91237…
08-10 02:54:09	Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0x52fee3…
08-09 21:49:28	Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?	Yes	BUY	477	6¢	$29	0xe2c8f2…
08-09 14:54:15	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0xa24b79…
08-09 10:37:15	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0x6a43c6…
08-09 08:43:15	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	323	56¢	$181	0x0a2356…
08-09 08:43:09	will ethereum dip to 1750 by december 31 2026 20260806184731889	No	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0xe2738b…
08-09 05:00:00	will ethereum dip to 1250 by december 31 2026 from june 8	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x0de022…
08-09 03:37:19	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0xc3317f…
08-09 03:18:49	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x1c45f8…
08-08 06:46:39	Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?	Yes	BUY	23	6¢	$1	0xfc8c55…
08-08 04:44:46	will the chopsticks catch spacex starship flight test 14 starship 563	No	BUY	111	40¢	$44	0xfa3445…
08-08 03:01:48	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	475	52¢	$247	0x73e62f…
08-08 03:01:46	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	SELL	34	40¢	$14	0x2edb8a…
08-08 00:49:42	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	SELL	175	39¢	$68	0xbacdf4…
08-07 14:25:48	blue origin new glenn launch in 2026	No	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x668288…
08-07 03:04:49	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0xc5a276…
08-07 02:57:34	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x8d5a0a…
08-07 02:57:15	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	100	55¢	$55	0x8325bb…
08-06 15:41:39	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x52b2a5…
08-06 15:41:17	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	99	50¢	$50	0xe308c1…
08-06 14:26:24	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	BUY	150	36¢	$54	0xd9fb0f…
08-06 14:25:27	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804000051471	No	BUY	60	35¢	$21	0x6b6bc7…
08-06 14:24:38	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	300	53¢	$159	0xee4bf5…
08-06 14:23:29	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0xe4f29e…
08-03 08:26:30	nothing ever happens august 20260731190455728	Nothing	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xa34433…
08-01 18:30:39	will iran target a arab country on august 31 2026 20260801004719148	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x93ed4e…
08-01 12:26:08	will iran target a arab country on august 10 2026 20260801004719127	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0xc6e164…
08-01 11:23:45	will iran target a arab country on august 10 2026 20260801004719127	No	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xfb390f…
08-01 11:23:18	will iran target a arab country on august 29 2026 20260801004719146	No	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xe76fac…
08-01 07:16:32	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xce719a…
08-01 05:10:09	will trump praise allah again by august 31 20260730192606732	No	BUY	55	70¢	$38	0x9a1a6f…
08-01 03:15:06	will iran target a arab country on august 13 2026 20260801004719130	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x368184…
08-01 03:15:00	will iran target a arab country on august 14 2026 20260801004719131	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xd56a63…
08-01 03:14:42	will iran target a arab country on august 4 2026 20260801004719121	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xa52b45…
07-31 19:37:08	will trump praise allah again by august 31 20260730192606732	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0xcefc43…
07-31 09:17:57	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x41aa69…
07-31 08:03:53	will trump praise allah again by august 31 20260730192606732	No	BUY	30	77¢	$23	0x924ff9…
07-31 08:03:47	will trump praise allah again by august 31 20260730192606732	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x07e15f…
07-30 22:25:17	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0xbf00cf…
07-30 20:40:42	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x14142a…
07-30 20:32:50	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	60	54¢	$32	0x182207…
07-30 20:32:41	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x5c8711…
07-30 20:30:36	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	89	53¢	$47	0x8483c9…
07-30 14:48:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0xe5f0a6…
07-30 07:44:29	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	80	66¢	$53	0xe59457…
07-30 07:44:24	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	4	66¢	$3	0x8d2e92…
07-30 05:24:45	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x7acb97…
07-30 05:23:20	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	No	BUY	1	66¢	$1	0xda4646…
07-28 13:16:01	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	40	86¢	$34	0x1dfe40…
07-26 10:11:28	will solana dip to 30 by december 31 2026 from june 8 181	No	BUY	3	84¢	$3	0xacdd8f…
07-25 22:12:40	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x9f9e0b…
07-25 05:55:16	SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	No	BUY	1	40¢	$0	0x2f3a0b…
07-25 03:14:45	SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?	No	BUY	99	40¢	$40	0x405ffb…
07-25 01:28:01	will solana dip to 30 by december 31 2026 from june 8 181	No	BUY	16	81¢	$13	0xd09e1e…
07-24 00:44:22	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0xaa9176…
07-23 23:32:22	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 29 2026 20260722225036953	No	BUY	42	81¢	$34	0xaeeeb7…
07-23 23:30:03	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 31 2026 20260722225036955	No	BUY	114	79¢	$90	0xf471f9…
07-23 16:48:01	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	No	SELL	1,612	83¢	$1,338	0x0dcced…
07-23 15:42:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0xe16be1…
07-23 13:50:04	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3,149	74¢	$2,330	0x3fe4c2…
07-23 13:49:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x8cffaf…
07-23 13:47:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xd0d3c2…
07-23 13:46:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x8cbc2f…
07-23 13:43:51	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x3c0ef4…
07-23 13:39:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	27	74¢	$20	0x52fa9c…
07-23 13:36:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x08d2a4…
07-23 13:33:45	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xae6767…
07-23 13:32:34	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x18c30c…
07-23 13:29:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x5e2368…
07-23 13:29:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x9be99c…
07-23 13:28:45	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x13c25b…
07-23 13:27:21	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x77106a…
07-23 13:27:15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x5d5418…
07-23 13:25:43	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x1cc46d…
07-23 13:24:48	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x85c54f…
07-23 13:24:12	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xffd7a4…
07-23 13:22:48	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x103d1d…
07-23 13:20:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x93aab8…
07-23 13:20:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xb2427d…
07-23 13:20:40	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0xc7f931…
07-23 13:20:22	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x56d4da…