Mushy-Asymmetry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.08K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.8%

Resolved

Trades

37,423

lifetime

Volume

$10.5M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$281

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-12 23:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Politics

62% 100% +$1,754

Other

37% 42% $-3,837

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 905 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	543	$188.6K	130,451	130,263	+188	open	—	04-27 07:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	148	$177.5K	98,094	99,000	-906	open	—	01-25 15:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	304	$164.5K	208,660	0	+208,660	open	—	08-10 14:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	384	$160.6K	227,171	245,330	-18,159	open	—	06-27 14:32
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	327	$157.8K	88,666	85,792	+2,874	open	—	02-24 03:42
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	507	$138.6K	183,924	182,135	+1,790	open	—	02-28 09:01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	205	$130.8K	81,500	78,128	+3,372	open	—	05-26 19:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	330	$122.9K	109,332	51,712	+57,620	open	—	06-01 09:31
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	197	$117.7K	80,388	67,053	+13,335	open	—	02-01 01:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	684	$110.9K	235,220	235,296	-76	open	—	08-01 10:13
will the us invade iran by march 31	172	$104.1K	62,331	56,897	+5,434	open	—	03-29 12:41
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	178	$102.3K	109,506	30,506	+79,000	open	—	03-11 07:34
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	101	$96.1K	52,934	52,934	+0	open	—	04-27 13:13
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	180	$94.4K	64,612	65,826	-1,214	open	—	04-01 14:08
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	202	$93.4K	62,500	50,000	+12,500	open	—	04-22 14:16
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	209	$92.1K	72,001	47,888	+24,113	open	—	03-25 00:39
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	114	$85.7K	45,246	44,979	+267	open	—	05-26 01:28
Iran leadership change by April 30?	75	$84.6K	46,849	46,849	+0	open	—	05-01 02:21
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	97	$82.1K	43,050	43,800	-750	open	—	02-09 07:25
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	478	$77.2K	46,581	55,895	-9,313	open	—	06-20 06:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	121	$73.0K	61,386	23,000	+38,386	open	—	05-09 22:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	130	$72.0K	88,899	78,899	+10,000	open	—	02-28 19:41
us strikes iran by february 2 2026	12	$67.4K	34,000	34,000	+0	open	—	02-02 15:08
will there be between 10 and 13 us strikes on somalia in february 2026	188	$67.3K	45,731	52,961	-7,230	open	—	03-03 17:27
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	107	$65.1K	69,776	21,276	+48,500	open	—	04-08 16:38
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	44	$64.5K	52,045	52,045	+0	open	—	03-19 02:23
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	48	$62.1K	38,263	38,263	+0	open	—	03-26 04:08
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	21	$62.0K	64,057	0	+64,057	open	—	02-09 11:04
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	219	$60.3K	82,671	37,370	+45,301	open	—	02-28 06:35
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	41	$58.9K	29,250	32,819	-3,569	open	—	06-06 09:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 01:00:39	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 31 2026 20260807172323134	Yes	BUY	58	57¢	$33	0xae93f4…
08-12 23:55:15	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	7	31¢	$2	0xa2f4ad…
08-12 23:16:01	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 31 2026 20260807172431197	Yes	BUY	144	51¢	$73	0xeb7bf7…
08-12 22:59:15	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 31 2026 20260807172431197	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xb327ff…
08-12 22:58:03	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xe4f251…
08-12 22:52:30	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 31 2026 20260807172431197	Yes	BUY	73	51¢	$37	0xaaa398…
08-12 22:25:28	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	343	31¢	$106	0xbfd0b5…
08-12 21:00:10	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	29	31¢	$9	0xcc9ecb…
08-12 20:59:19	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	29	31¢	$9	0x0060cd…
08-12 20:58:42	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xfe19f1…
08-12 20:57:45	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	101	31¢	$31	0x3be978…
08-12 19:57:54	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 31 2026 20260807172323134	Yes	BUY	6	57¢	$4	0xb42e41…
08-12 19:51:15	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0xa3e14c…
08-12 18:18:58	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by august 15 2026 20260807172323133	Yes	BUY	8	31¢	$3	0x4f8ab0…
08-12 15:51:03	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	89	92¢	$82	0x63dc91…
08-12 15:44:09	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	Yes	BUY	47	32¢	$15	0x28305f…
08-12 15:33:28	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x9f1bc1…
08-12 15:10:03	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	Yes	BUY	147	32¢	$47	0x9f2340…
08-12 15:05:21	iran oman hormuz agreement by september 30	Yes	BUY	129	66¢	$85	0x4d6eb7…
08-12 12:37:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	603	44¢	$265	0xa5e87e…
08-12 12:29:57	will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x455d2a…
08-12 12:21:06	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	1,696	91¢	$1,544	0x7cd7f0…
08-12 11:56:28	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	221	44¢	$97	0x3c6095…
08-12 11:50:28	cs2 lvg mouz 2026 08 12	MOUZ	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xfa9797…
08-12 11:43:52	cs2 lvg mouz 2026 08 12	MOUZ	BUY	45	79¢	$36	0xfa535d…
08-12 11:30:21	cs2 lvg mouz 2026 08 12	MOUZ	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x0f7889…
08-12 11:30:15	cs2 lvg mouz 2026 08 12	MOUZ	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x6d5caf…
08-12 11:24:03	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0xb8783b…
08-12 11:02:22	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	219	44¢	$96	0xc0b2b4…
08-12 10:44:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	161	92¢	$148	0xd2a660…
08-12 10:23:10	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	304	91¢	$276	0x12710b…
08-12 09:52:31	cs2 lvg mouz 2026 08 12	MOUZ	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x5808ec…
08-12 09:37:30	cs2 lvg mouz 2026 08 12	MOUZ	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x96e4b8…
08-12 09:26:51	cs2 lvg mouz 2026 08 12	MOUZ	BUY	95	79¢	$75	0x8c915e…
08-12 09:07:33	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 31 2026 20260807172431197	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x68de12…
08-12 09:02:57	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 31 2026 20260807172431197	Yes	BUY	64	60¢	$39	0xdf5c6c…
08-12 08:39:30	cs2 lvg mouz 2026 08 12	MOUZ	BUY	65	79¢	$51	0xa68642…
08-12 07:07:13	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 15 2026 20260807172431196	Yes	BUY	333	27¢	$90	0xd8e930…
08-12 06:27:31	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	82	98¢	$80	0x2bc819…
08-12 06:27:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	416	98¢	$407	0x48ecb5…
08-12 05:39:13	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	BUY	244	92¢	$225	0x5fe03e…
08-12 05:18:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	1,982	81¢	$1,606	0xc04d27…
08-12 05:14:51	will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	SELL	179	70¢	$125	0x8ef246…
08-12 05:11:22	iran oman hormuz agreement by august 22	Yes	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xaef12f…
08-12 04:55:24	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	0	98¢	$0	0x86f02d…
08-12 04:55:12	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xeefe88…
08-12 04:00:34	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x53b73e…
08-12 03:48:16	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 31 2026 20260807172431197	Yes	BUY	138	66¢	$91	0x20fd15…
08-12 03:14:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x0eaa12…
08-12 03:03:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x2352ee…
08-12 02:42:45	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 31 2026 20260807172431197	Yes	BUY	162	66¢	$107	0x6f34a9…
08-12 02:10:07	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	Yes	SELL	2,750	100¢	$2,747	0x1f72ee…
08-12 01:16:54	will bitcoin reach 70000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	SELL	80	70¢	$56	0x809e19…
08-12 01:16:01	us iran hormuz agreement by august 31 20260804222025507 868 993	Yes	BUY	2,500	57¢	$1,425	0x2bec87…
08-12 01:14:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	4,000	87¢	$3,480	0xddcea1…
08-12 01:12:33	israel closes its airspace by august 15	No	BUY	350	97¢	$341	0xfc4ec5…
08-12 01:11:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	Yes	BUY	3,500	72¢	$2,520	0xade513…
08-12 01:11:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,000	89¢	$890	0x35d20e…
08-12 01:09:16	nato downs another russian drone by august 31 20260726215001931	No	BUY	144	56¢	$80	0xe17def…
08-11 15:54:46	atp smith gill 2026 08 10	Colton Smith	BUY	719	60¢	$432	0x354075…
08-11 14:09:34	atp mmoh butvila 2026 08 10	Edas Butvilas	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x3851a1…
08-11 14:09:06	atp mmoh butvila 2026 08 10	Edas Butvilas	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xaae539…
08-11 14:05:37	atp mmoh butvila 2026 08 10	Edas Butvilas	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x217652…
08-11 13:42:25	atp smith gill 2026 08 10	Colton Smith	BUY	125	60¢	$75	0x6542a3…
08-11 13:15:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0xebbc55…
08-11 13:15:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0x328fbf…
08-11 13:15:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x2d41c1…
08-11 13:12:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x165cca…
08-11 12:52:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x391500…
08-11 12:32:43	atp smith gill 2026 08 10	Colton Smith	BUY	8	60¢	$4	0x0501c2…
08-11 12:25:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	236	87¢	$205	0xdc2af2…
08-11 12:24:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0x4577fe…
08-11 12:15:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	78	87¢	$68	0xfff5d9…
08-11 12:12:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	27	95¢	$26	0x136bf2…
08-11 12:09:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	288	95¢	$273	0xb7ce56…
08-11 12:09:12	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	400	95¢	$380	0x0b2256…
08-11 11:56:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	514	87¢	$447	0xdff031…
08-11 11:56:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0x283b6f…
08-11 11:55:04	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	105	95¢	$100	0x296e8a…
08-11 11:54:40	atp smith gill 2026 08 10	Colton Smith	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0xc605a6…
08-11 11:54:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xe42188…
08-11 11:54:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	34	95¢	$32	0x9eef13…
08-11 11:54:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	1,145	95¢	$1,088	0xa32aa5…
08-11 11:48:37	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	879	16¢	$141	0x04f5d2…
08-11 11:46:33	atp smith gill 2026 08 10	Colton Smith	BUY	12	60¢	$8	0x80444c…
08-11 11:46:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x613593…
08-11 11:25:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x7b221e…
08-11 11:24:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0x9e1515…
08-11 11:24:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0x36be64…
08-11 11:24:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0x9e7d8c…
08-11 11:24:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$2	0x185657…
08-11 11:15:36	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	996	81¢	$807	0x518b02…
08-11 11:14:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	608	87¢	$529	0x4229a5…
08-11 11:13:58	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by august 15 2026 20260807172431196	Yes	BUY	200	31¢	$62	0x621d74…
08-11 11:04:46	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	7,000	94¢	$6,580	0xa8d24b…
08-11 10:56:58	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	16¢	$11	0x8ec032…
08-11 10:51:54	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	16¢	$13	0x74e6f6…
08-11 10:38:18	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	16¢	$10	0x19c6e2…
08-11 10:00:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	976	64¢	$625	0x1d8e45…
08-11 09:38:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	Yes	BUY	487	14¢	$68	0xa2cdfc…