Tangible-Causal — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.6%

Resolved

644

Trades

967

lifetime

Volume

$1.00K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 05-13 19:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 65% $-18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 189 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	2	$15	12	12	+0	open	—	05-04 07:23
btc updown 5m 1776714000	2	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	04-20 19:40
btc updown 5m 1775670900	3	$3	25	0	+25	open	—	04-08 17:59
btc updown 5m 1776793200	2	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-21 17:40
btc updown 5m 1776770100	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-21 11:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	2	$2	101	0	+101	Down	$-1	05-06 05:10
btc updown 5m 1776711600	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-20 19:00
btc updown 5m 1776771000	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-21 11:30
btc updown 5m 1775671200	2	$2	13	0	+13	open	—	04-08 18:03
btc updown 5m 1776768300	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-21 10:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	2	$2	3	0	+3	Up	+$1	05-12 17:20
btc updown 5m 1776798900	2	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-21 19:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	2	$2	3	0	+3	Down	$-2	05-09 18:30
btc updown 5m 1776771900	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-21 11:45
btc updown 5m 1776717000	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-20 20:30
btc updown 5m 1776712500	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-20 19:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	05-04 08:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	05-04 08:05
btc updown 5m 1776716700	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-20 20:25
btc updown 5m 1776715800	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-20 20:10
btc updown 5m 1776715500	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-20 20:05
btc updown 5m 1776717900	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-20 20:45
btc updown 5m 1776719400	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-20 21:10
btc updown 5m 1776718500	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-20 20:55
btc updown 5m 1776717300	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-20 20:35
btc updown 5m 1776721800	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-20 21:50
btc updown 5m 1776712800	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-20 19:20
btc updown 5m 1776720600	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-20 21:30
btc updown 5m 1776714600	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-20 19:50
btc updown 5m 1776716100	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-20 20:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 19:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x60d5fc…
05-13 19:25:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x03e303…
05-13 19:20:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa7b3d4…
05-13 19:15:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x2eb8cf…
05-13 18:40:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x221e08…
05-13 18:35:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xe07549…
05-13 18:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xcdecc6…
05-13 17:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x40fce6…
05-13 16:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x2d66d4…
05-13 15:00:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x689204…
05-13 14:25:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x6f21a4…
05-13 12:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x249255…
05-13 11:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x1061f1…
05-13 10:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xac12f9…
05-13 10:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x449ce5…
05-13 09:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x8d4447…
05-13 09:05:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x756fcb…
05-13 08:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x47b165…
05-13 08:40:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x6661b8…
05-13 07:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x451b97…
05-13 07:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x7e9f0c…
05-13 07:30:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x31530e…
05-13 07:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xc712ca…
05-13 05:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x42f5fd…
05-13 04:35:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x334bc0…
05-13 04:20:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb08bb4…
05-13 04:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xf1aa5f…
05-13 03:25:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x061acb…
05-13 02:15:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x70a973…
05-13 02:05:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x4f2c94…
05-13 02:00:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe429cf…
05-13 01:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x9ec920…
05-13 01:30:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x26291a…
05-13 01:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x27c2f8…
05-13 01:05:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x506ce5…
05-13 00:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x9eeeb4…
05-13 00:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x95f742…
05-13 00:25:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x0d36a4…
05-13 00:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x82389d…
05-12 22:25:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x2eda63…
05-12 22:05:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x021d3b…
05-12 22:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x6bf5d0…
05-12 20:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x72db3f…
05-12 19:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x712a89…
05-12 18:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x83cd55…
05-12 18:25:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x8e67b1…
05-12 18:15:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x1c8d61…
05-12 17:20:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x5411b9…
05-12 17:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xba4d90…
05-12 15:45:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x1db5e7…
05-12 15:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x29e476…
05-12 15:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x95507c…
05-12 15:26:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x734f32…
05-12 15:00:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x782616…
05-12 14:35:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x1e2d9a…
05-12 14:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x9dbfdf…
05-12 14:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x2e0c61…
05-12 13:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xb3da7f…
05-12 13:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xfca537…
05-12 12:55:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x6aacc0…
05-12 11:15:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xaf5420…
05-12 11:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x264c2d…
05-12 10:50:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x8e1987…
05-12 10:00:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x651cce…
05-12 08:15:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x40e505…
05-12 08:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc78a7a…
05-12 06:35:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x00d512…
05-12 05:20:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xc2345e…
05-12 05:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xf148c0…
05-12 04:45:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x36b694…
05-12 04:25:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xf7ce67…
05-12 04:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x876844…
05-12 03:35:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x9066ce…
05-12 02:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x3b11c2…
05-12 02:50:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x4ed53b…
05-12 02:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xb0e889…
05-12 01:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x792d83…
05-12 01:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x614aac…
05-12 01:25:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x034b37…
05-12 01:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x2a875c…
05-12 01:00:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x2f0a09…
05-12 00:45:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xd76c23…
05-12 00:20:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x3cf8cb…
05-11 23:35:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xca6f1a…
05-11 23:25:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x6a334a…
05-11 22:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xec6e92…
05-11 22:25:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xee73bc…
05-11 22:20:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb0cda5…
05-11 22:05:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x029576…
05-11 21:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xb5c322…
05-11 20:20:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x8563e3…
05-11 19:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x19b428…
05-11 18:45:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xa5f310…
05-11 18:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x95a519…
05-11 18:20:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc6bed8…
05-11 17:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x7fd076…
05-11 17:20:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb1332d…
05-11 16:45:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x5f6a7a…
05-11 16:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x167663…
05-11 16:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x56b8ab…