Happy-Go-Lucky-Alloy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.1%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$113

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 05-11 08:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

37% — —

Crypto

35% 36% $-4

Other

26% — —

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$24	23	23	+0	open	—	04-08 00:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	04-25 06:30
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	6	$8	9	9	+0	open	—	04-13 14:09
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	3	$8	18	12	+6	open	—	04-15 18:57
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	04-21 21:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	4	$4	4	4	+0	Up	+$0	05-11 08:20
Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?	3	$4	9	8	+1	open	—	04-19 16:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	3	$4	4	2	+2	Up	$-0	05-11 08:14
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$4	8	8	+0	open	—	05-06 19:01
Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	3	$3	3	3	+0	open	—	04-29 11:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 21:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 21:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	Up	+$0	05-10 20:52
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	1	$2	27	0	+27	open	—	04-27 14:39
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	1	$2	143	0	+143	open	—	01-07 19:37
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$2	7	0	+7	open	—	02-02 02:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1	$2	11	0	+11	open	—	04-27 14:34
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$2	7	0	+7	open	—	04-22 08:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$2	92	0	+92	open	—	04-15 12:22
highest temperature in hong kong on april 17 2026 29c	2	$1	2	2	+0	open	—	04-19 17:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	1	$1	20	0	+20	Down	$-1	05-11 08:28
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	1	$1	10	0	+10	open	—	05-10 20:36
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	1	$1	29	0	+29	open	—	04-15 08:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	1	$1	5	0	+5	Down	$-1	05-11 08:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	1	$1	3	0	+3	Down	$-1	05-11 08:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	1	$1	5	0	+5	Down	$-1	05-11 07:58
highest temperature in austin on april 16 2026 88 89f	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	04-16 19:17
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	03-12 16:08
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	02-02 02:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	1	$1	2	0	+2	Down	$-1	05-11 08:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 08:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xbdeeee…
05-11 08:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x87e25a…
05-11 08:21:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xc66fdd…
05-11 08:20:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x184272…
05-11 08:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xecc736…
05-11 08:16:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xb28de2…
05-11 08:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x61c5ab…
05-11 08:14:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x3d96c1…
05-11 08:10:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc7228f…
05-11 08:10:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xd01502…
05-11 08:05:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x0a9264…
05-11 08:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x480bd4…
05-11 07:58:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x3f4cd2…
05-10 21:09:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x3740c7…
05-10 21:05:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xde76f5…
05-10 21:03:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x59fa2f…
05-10 21:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd2c5fa…
05-10 20:52:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5b56d7…
05-10 20:50:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd9cd3a…
05-10 20:36:34	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x99b176…
05-06 19:01:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0x35ed18…
05-06 18:59:32	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x1d6c8b…
04-29 11:56:08	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd06ec4…
04-27 14:39:36	MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	27	7¢	$2	0x98d18d…
04-27 14:34:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x3a190d…
04-25 06:30:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x2efe41…
04-22 08:50:06	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xe3f515…
04-21 21:47:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xc3014a…
04-19 17:11:34	highest temperature in hong kong on april 17 2026 29c	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xe66a1a…
04-19 16:58:16	Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x619aef…
04-19 07:11:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xbace31…
04-17 16:20:34	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0x4d86e0…
04-17 16:20:12	Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	4	34¢	$1	0x90d8a0…
04-16 19:17:02	highest temperature in austin on april 16 2026 88 89f	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x6efd1a…
04-16 19:15:02	highest temperature in hong kong on april 17 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x19a022…
04-15 18:57:36	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x947f50…
04-15 12:22:42	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0xeab418…
04-15 12:22:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x5bad9a…
04-15 12:04:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe38cdf…
04-15 08:25:10	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x516206…
04-15 07:45:58	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	Yes	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0xd2c1fb…
04-14 20:13:40	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xa1e08a…
04-13 14:09:43	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xab8b38…
04-12 17:43:07	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0xae57ee…
04-11 17:42:15	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x5a64a2…
04-10 16:38:49	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xa81936…
04-09 20:26:23	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	SELL	3	29¢	$1	0xa0d645…
04-09 19:29:33	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x88698c…
04-08 00:10:05	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x2aab97…
04-07 17:29:31	Pharos FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xea79d7…
04-07 17:29:15	Pharos FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x6b02a6…
04-07 17:18:13	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xc13ad3…
03-12 16:08:13	Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xac36cb…
03-06 02:36:05	Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x15ccd5…
02-06 07:59:25	nothing ever happens microstrategy	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x89dae9…
02-02 02:57:34	Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3c4a07…
02-02 02:56:32	Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x460aad…
01-15 04:30:16	us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x97218b…
01-15 04:05:38	us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x30fcb0…
01-07 19:37:07	new stranger things episode released by wednesday	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$2	0x4abdc5…