Severe-Deformation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$383

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 07-13 07:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

72% — —

Tech

18% — —

Crypto

7% 100% +$4

Politics

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by march 13	2	$39	20	20	+0	open	—	03-12 08:40
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 380 399	1	$30	30	0	+30	open	—	03-16 07:18
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	03-30 15:47
netanyahu out by march 31 854	3	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-31 13:30
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-25 06:32
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 180 199	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-29 06:22
will crude oil cl hit low 75 by march 13 797 448 955	1	$19	20	0	+20	open	—	03-12 08:40
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	2	$19	11	10	+1	open	—	03-11 02:10
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	2	$18	11	11	+0	open	—	04-19 09:24
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 280 299	1	$13	14	0	+14	open	—	04-19 09:24
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 380 399	2	$11	5	5	+0	open	—	04-02 02:20
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 380 399	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	03-28 01:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	2	$10	42	0	+42	open	—	05-03 13:23
will neuralinks valuation hit high 60 by july 31 20260629184735354	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	07-13 07:51
will crude oil cl hit low 70 by march 13 323 755 644	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	03-11 02:10
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	06-18 16:12
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by march 20	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	03-19 08:01
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 340 359	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	03-30 15:47
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 360 379	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	03-29 06:23
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	1	$5	0	5	-5	open	—	06-06 16:28
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-22 14:47
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	07-01 10:26
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 360 379	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-05 07:29
gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026 272	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	07-04 18:01
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 280 299	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	04-22 16:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	1	$4	8	0	+8	Up	+$4	05-05 11:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	1	$4	18	0	+18	open	—	05-03 13:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	04-01 05:01
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	04-03 16:15
Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	05-07 20:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 07:51:10	will neuralinks valuation hit high 60 by july 31 20260629184735354	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x326ada…
07-04 18:01:46	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026 272	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd73a70…
07-01 10:26:29	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x0bf379…
06-22 14:47:19	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x29a5e3…
06-18 16:12:02	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x78a62d…
06-14 05:42:31	lol t1 gen 2026 06 14	T1	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x86f551…
06-06 16:28:52	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xa2ad89…
06-05 19:02:04	jd vance out as vp by december 31	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf1cbd6…
06-02 14:50:55	JD Vance out as VP by June 15?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x29f32f…
06-02 14:50:40	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x48f185…
05-09 09:38:24	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xf984c4…
05-07 20:16:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 7?	No	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x739760…
05-05 11:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xd19391…
05-03 13:26:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	18	22¢	$4	0xd3dabd…
05-03 13:23:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xb1d1db…
05-03 13:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x324fd1…
04-25 13:14:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xfc7fb2…
04-22 16:06:14	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 280 299	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe5363a…
04-19 09:24:44	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 280 299	No	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0x9939e4…
04-19 09:24:06	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	No	SELL	11	75¢	$8	0x5063c5…
04-16 08:36:40	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x6c56e0…
04-11 18:52:55	btc updown 5m 1775933400	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xf53654…
04-09 11:32:43	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xf89311…
04-08 08:43:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x6ceee9…
04-06 14:45:59	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x514da6…
04-05 07:29:15	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 360 379	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x5196bf…
04-03 16:15:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xa5f16c…
04-02 02:21:01	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x0afe43…
04-02 02:20:45	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 380 399	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9a59b5…
04-01 05:01:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x77ba4b…
03-31 13:30:49	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 320 339	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x88bac7…
03-31 13:30:03	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x91fc44…
03-30 15:47:43	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 340 359	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x4a503e…
03-30 15:47:29	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x70b85d…
03-29 06:23:04	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 360 379	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xef2489…
03-29 06:22:50	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 180 199	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x6579e5…
03-28 01:49:09	elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 380 399	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd73181…
03-28 01:48:51	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 380 399	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9560ba…
03-27 13:17:37	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 380 399	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x78147f…
03-27 13:17:01	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x28f97c…
03-25 06:33:29	elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 180 199	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x813345…
03-25 06:32:45	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xe23af1…
03-22 01:03:17	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$10	0x0b2c23…
03-22 01:02:59	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc2ec70…
03-19 08:01:31	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by march 20	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb490df…
03-19 08:01:07	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x3c593b…
03-16 07:18:07	elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 380 399	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xbdb918…
03-12 08:40:57	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by march 13 797 448 955	No	BUY	20	98¢	$19	0x2443fa…
03-12 08:40:27	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by march 13	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xc9bba6…
03-11 02:11:17	will crude oil cl hit high 140 by march 13	No	BUY	20	99¢	$19	0x616cf6…
03-11 02:10:59	will crude oil cl hit low 70 by march 13 323 755 644	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xd40ff1…
03-11 02:10:27	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xff2ad5…
03-10 13:10:11	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x5d906b…