Exalted-Lid — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$17

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.8%

Resolved

Trades

630

lifetime

Volume

$1.58K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 05-12 01:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 36% $-16

Politics

1% 0% $-1

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 210 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1776801900	4	$53	54	50	+4	open	—	04-21 20:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	10	$51	93	93	+0	Up	+$17	05-05 00:14
btc updown 5m 1775823600	5	$45	129	120	+9	open	—	04-10 12:23
btc updown 5m 1776270900	6	$37	40	39	+1	open	—	04-15 16:40
btc updown 5m 1776792900	5	$30	125	24	+101	open	—	04-21 17:39
btc updown 5m 1776646800	5	$26	31	30	+2	open	—	04-20 01:04
btc updown 5m 1776300000	5	$23	30	29	+1	open	—	04-16 00:44
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$23	33	33	+0	open	—	05-12 00:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	7	$22	31	31	+0	Down	+$8	05-04 22:24
btc updown 5m 1776803100	7	$22	43	38	+5	open	—	04-21 20:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	3	$21	18	18	+0	open	—	04-30 01:13
btc updown 5m 1776436800	3	$20	31	29	+2	open	—	04-17 14:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	6	$20	31	31	+0	Down	+$6	05-04 22:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	3	$19	15	15	+0	Up	+$11	05-05 00:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	9	$19	35	35	+0	Up	+$3	05-04 23:54
btc updown 5m 1776745800	4	$18	15	14	+1	open	—	04-21 04:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	6	$18	34	14	+20	Up	+$9	05-05 00:19
btc updown 5m 1776738300	4	$18	24	23	+1	open	—	04-21 02:27
btc updown 5m 1776772200	5	$17	35	20	+15	open	—	04-21 11:54
btc updown 5m 1775829900	3	$16	21	20	+1	open	—	04-10 14:09
btc updown 5m 1775845200	4	$15	14	13	+1	open	—	04-10 18:24
btc updown 5m 1776247200	3	$15	24	22	+1	open	—	04-15 10:04
btc updown 5m 1775800200	3	$15	11	11	+1	open	—	04-10 05:55
btc updown 5m 1776273600	4	$14	26	24	+2	open	—	04-15 17:24
btc updown 5m 1776298500	3	$14	17	16	+1	open	—	04-16 00:19
btc updown 5m 1776438900	2	$14	33	31	+2	open	—	04-17 15:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	3	$14	11	11	+0	Down	+$6	05-04 22:58
btc updown 5m 1775813400	5	$13	47	13	+34	open	—	04-10 09:34
btc updown 5m 1776245700	3	$13	12	11	+1	open	—	04-15 09:40
btc updown 5m 1775803500	4	$13	27	25	+2	open	—	04-10 06:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 01:18:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x62c0e3…
05-12 00:43:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x175a57…
05-12 00:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x9af9cb…
05-12 00:42:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x22ba79…
05-12 00:37:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd2aa41…
05-12 00:37:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x5284de…
05-12 00:13:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xcc4898…
05-12 00:12:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xba3a50…
05-12 00:12:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x38c439…
05-12 00:12:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x95cc9f…
05-12 00:11:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x465023…
05-12 00:03:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	67¢	$22	0x1887aa…
05-05 01:06:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x826235…
05-05 01:02:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa2fe8e…
05-05 01:01:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x58ed51…
05-05 01:01:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x744a24…
05-05 01:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x8c8d85…
05-05 01:01:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x10fff3…
05-05 00:59:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x7bb903…
05-05 00:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x55f99e…
05-05 00:53:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xe1cbcf…
05-05 00:52:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd84606…
05-05 00:52:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xf8913c…
05-05 00:51:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x0bd259…
05-05 00:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x167fff…
05-05 00:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x3b6185…
05-05 00:45:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x9b4eb6…
05-05 00:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x85e6a3…
05-05 00:43:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x6efd82…
05-05 00:39:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x29c37d…
05-05 00:38:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xf0666f…
05-05 00:37:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xc9a6cc…
05-05 00:37:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x35f82f…
05-05 00:37:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x29b765…
05-05 00:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0x1d52a1…
05-05 00:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xa2712b…
05-05 00:33:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xc32fbe…
05-05 00:33:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1c83f0…
05-05 00:32:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x88608a…
05-05 00:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x377700…
05-05 00:32:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x5b6fcc…
05-05 00:27:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	12	67¢	$8	0x30d2c0…
05-05 00:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xcc1fb1…
05-05 00:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x385b24…
05-05 00:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x44ffb3…
05-05 00:23:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x37a37e…
05-05 00:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x7568a0…
05-05 00:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xd1c13b…
05-05 00:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x525b63…
05-05 00:19:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x875d65…
05-05 00:19:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	SELL	14	64¢	$9	0x3ca5d4…
05-05 00:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x9dd12d…
05-05 00:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x9f87cf…
05-05 00:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xfdb9ed…
05-05 00:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	40	30¢	$12	0xcc79fa…
05-05 00:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xd03010…
05-05 00:14:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xca2503…
05-05 00:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xeec70c…
05-05 00:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xdd6d39…
05-05 00:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	53	42¢	$22	0x44cbbe…
05-05 00:12:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x7be4e2…
05-05 00:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xe5463c…
05-05 00:10:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x75d99c…
05-05 00:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xe7bbc6…
05-05 00:08:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x73e023…
05-05 00:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x8a4849…
05-05 00:05:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x8a4e27…
05-05 00:03:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x932f40…
05-05 00:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	7¢	$1	0xda183c…
05-05 00:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x847eea…
05-05 00:03:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xc4d2c7…
05-04 23:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	9¢	$0	0xeb8ff6…
05-04 23:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	31	34¢	$11	0x3bc1fc…
05-04 23:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd3300b…
05-04 23:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xfa89ac…
05-04 23:52:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x8e8a3e…
05-04 23:51:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xb54658…
05-04 23:51:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x2f9d03…
05-04 23:51:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7cda71…
05-04 23:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x038175…
05-04 23:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x58006f…
05-04 23:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xfeabbd…
05-04 23:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	12	44¢	$5	0xcd6892…
05-04 23:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xb86036…
05-04 23:46:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x17931b…
05-04 23:44:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc6ceb0…
05-04 23:44:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	SELL	82	6¢	$5	0xed449b…
05-04 23:44:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xb531a9…
05-04 23:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x031efc…
05-04 23:43:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Up	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x4e195b…
05-04 23:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x8cd661…
05-04 23:02:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x24386e…
05-04 23:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x41841e…
05-04 23:01:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x896ce8…
05-04 23:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xa1e316…
05-04 23:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xbe6cab…
05-04 22:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	87¢	$10	0x07739e…
05-04 22:56:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xc6a5b0…
05-04 22:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x43a1e0…
05-04 22:54:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x5ede09…