Frugal-Monitoring — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$38

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

31.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$468

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-28

last 05-09 15:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

93% 9% $-36

Other

6% 67% $-2

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	3	$62	72	37	+35	open	—	04-28 02:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	3	$33	42	28	+14	open	—	04-28 02:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	2	$29	20	19	+1	open	—	04-28 02:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	2	$27	17	17	+1	open	—	04-28 02:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	5	$27	114	14	+100	open	—	05-04 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	4	$26	215	15	+200	Up	+$2	05-09 15:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	3	$23	33	22	+11	open	—	04-28 03:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	3	$19	33	12	+21	Down	$-11	05-09 15:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	3	$16	14	6	+9	open	—	04-28 03:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	4	$15	9	9	+0	open	—	05-01 09:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	04-28 04:05
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	2	$13	222	222	+0	open	—	05-09 15:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	05-04 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	6	$11	205	5	+200	open	—	05-01 09:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	2	$10	8	8	+0	open	—	04-28 03:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	1	$10	167	0	+167	open	—	04-28 02:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	1	$9	17	0	+17	open	—	04-28 04:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	3	$8	13	5	+8	open	—	05-04 17:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	1	$8	112	0	+112	Up	$-8	05-09 15:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	05-01 09:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$8	2,500	2,500	+0	open	—	05-04 17:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	4	$6	5	3	+2	open	—	05-01 19:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	3	$5	9	4	+5	Down	$-1	05-06 18:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	3	$5	10	1	+8	Up	$-3	05-06 18:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	04-28 03:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	Down	$-5	05-06 16:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	1	$5	12	0	+12	open	—	04-28 03:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	05-01 09:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-0	05-06 16:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	4	$5	14	2	+12	Up	$-1	05-09 15:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-09 15:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0xb4fa7f…
05-09 15:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	12	37¢	$4	0xe2e33a…
05-09 15:41:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x6fadd0…
05-09 15:40:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x9438c0…
05-09 15:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x96e0f8…
05-09 15:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	15	97¢	$14	0xff17d1…
05-09 15:35:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xa67de7…
05-09 15:35:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0xf51a29…
05-09 15:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	112	7¢	$8	0xb8f364…
05-09 15:27:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x15804e…
05-09 15:26:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x224368…
05-09 15:26:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0x0efbac…
05-09 15:25:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xad7feb…
05-09 15:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x449b5f…
05-09 15:23:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x656bb0…
05-09 15:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x1d8085…
05-09 15:21:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	SELL	222	2¢	$5	0x1786cf…
05-06 18:48:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xd9d016…
05-06 18:47:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	4	56¢	$2	0xd2ac22…
05-06 18:46:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x72f96a…
05-06 18:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x9de802…
05-06 18:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xb33393…
05-06 18:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xaf79a1…
05-06 18:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x7caa79…
05-06 16:51:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	222	4¢	$8	0x763b45…
05-06 16:30:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xc729f4…
05-06 16:30:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x4f6d59…
05-06 16:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x82c851…
05-04 18:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xb89db9…
05-04 17:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x921529…
05-04 17:55:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x2f93bf…
05-04 17:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xc2fe86…
05-04 17:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x39af5d…
05-04 17:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x264b0f…
05-04 17:52:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xe91426…
05-04 17:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	SELL	9	97¢	$8	0x667944…
05-04 17:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0x9d404a…
05-04 17:49:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xa8a2e8…
05-04 17:46:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x9f842f…
05-04 17:43:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	SELL	58	2¢	$1	0x709a75…
05-04 17:43:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	166	1¢	$1	0xc5a184…
05-04 17:42:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	2,500	0¢	$2	0xe38f95…
05-04 17:42:04	Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0x3ece92…
05-01 21:00:10	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x883e29…
05-01 21:00:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x0347dc…
05-01 21:00:00	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x54441b…
05-01 20:57:58	Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x74dae3…
05-01 20:57:34	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	No	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x229807…
05-01 20:52:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x7a66af…
05-01 19:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	SELL	3	94¢	$3	0x1c99c0…
05-01 19:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x18919b…
05-01 19:30:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x4b7a3b…
05-01 19:30:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5a89f0…
05-01 19:27:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xabf3f2…
05-01 09:52:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xdc5ee4…
05-01 09:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xddeeb2…
05-01 09:49:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x38c223…
05-01 09:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xc8fc7a…
05-01 09:46:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5c78d5…
05-01 09:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x61e2f6…
05-01 09:45:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xeeb878…
05-01 09:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x81f73d…
05-01 09:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x7b18f8…
05-01 09:42:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	2,500	0¢	$5	0xbc707b…
05-01 09:41:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xd9d71a…
05-01 09:41:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x9ccff1…
05-01 09:40:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x154d31…
05-01 09:36:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x7d754a…
05-01 09:36:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x45bcd4…
05-01 09:36:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0xa795ec…
05-01 09:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x7f314a…
05-01 09:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xfe6ff7…
05-01 09:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x3fe436…
05-01 09:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc2e699…
05-01 09:24:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xea7a2b…
04-28 04:05:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	17	53¢	$9	0x6db001…
04-28 04:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x89ad31…
04-28 04:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x4f464a…
04-28 03:58:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x5bfa50…
04-28 03:58:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	22	53¢	$12	0xf0fcbd…
04-28 03:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	23	26¢	$6	0xee59b7…
04-28 03:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x0a4262…
04-28 03:52:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xad6fb5…
04-28 03:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x709ddc…
04-28 03:10:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x9a0287…
04-28 03:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x87640e…
04-28 03:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0xf450a9…
04-28 02:56:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0xe97149…
04-28 02:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xcb5a4d…
04-28 02:46:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xaaba97…
04-28 02:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	SELL	37	59¢	$22	0x02d265…
04-28 02:45:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Up	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x07ac33…
04-28 02:45:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x0e2e27…
04-28 02:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x5d227b…
04-28 02:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xc957db…
04-28 02:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x56cbfd…
04-28 02:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xc9f64d…
04-28 02:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	SELL	28	48¢	$13	0xead816…
04-28 02:31:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x694341…