Exemplary-Tick — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$27

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

82.7%

Resolved

Trades

162

lifetime

Volume

$4.28K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 05-06 12:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

55% 0% $-9

Other

45% 50% +$36

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
italy nordio reform referendum passes	7	$610	408	408	+0	open	—	03-23 14:56
naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	4	$282	163	163	+0	open	—	04-01 11:12
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$252	154	154	+0	open	—	03-13 14:55
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	2	$217	118	118	+0	open	—	03-31 22:49
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	2	$208	128	128	+0	open	—	04-09 22:52
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	2	$199	104	104	+0	open	—	03-05 07:16
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$168	100	100	+0	open	—	03-01 08:58
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	2	$125	77	77	+0	open	—	04-12 18:42
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$109	94	94	+0	Yes	+$55	04-13 08:16
Iran leadership change by April 30?	2	$109	81	81	+0	open	—	03-23 13:52
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	4	$98	64	64	+0	open	—	04-16 18:55
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	2	$98	104	104	+0	open	—	03-08 08:59
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 7 249 562	2	$93	107	107	+0	open	—	03-03 19:07
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	3	$71	190	0	+190	open	—	04-09 12:58
will emmanuel grgoire win the paris mayor election	2	$71	44	44	+0	open	—	03-16 13:25
will trump talk to reza pahlavi in march 848	2	$68	42	42	+0	open	—	03-14 20:35
Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 30?	2	$65	42	42	+0	open	—	04-13 22:40
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	2	$62	51	51	+0	open	—	04-16 18:31
will russia capture rodynske by march 31	2	$54	92	92	+0	open	—	03-22 10:19
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?	2	$53	103	103	+0	open	—	03-22 10:20
Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April?	2	$51	35	35	+0	open	—	04-03 23:33
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	1	$50	83	0	+83	open	—	03-17 11:17
will israel strike 2 countries in march 2026	1	$50	107	0	+107	open	—	03-16 23:59
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	2	$48	96	96	+0	open	—	03-17 19:15
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$46	29	29	+0	open	—	03-16 13:26
will uk strike iran by march 31	2	$46	103	103	+0	open	—	03-04 14:45
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	2	$45	32	32	+0	open	—	04-12 08:40
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$44	43	43	+0	open	—	04-11 10:24
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	2	$44	30	30	+0	open	—	03-08 09:00
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	2	$44	27	27	+0	open	—	03-08 09:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-06 12:09:00	Will Trump say "Maduro" during events with Brazilian president?	Yes	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x1b94cb…
05-06 12:08:24	Will Trump say "Cuba" during events with Brazilian president?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xa6d062…
05-06 12:08:04	Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Prize" during events with Brazilian president?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x1d6e36…
05-06 11:01:50	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0x82df37…
05-05 08:28:00	Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xa29867…
05-05 08:27:44	Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xa7c0e6…
05-05 08:27:34	Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xa6106e…
05-05 08:27:24	Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x84b9d9…
05-03 12:12:54	Will Trump say "Kamala" this week?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xb186cb…
05-03 11:09:50	Will Trump post "Paper tiger" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xde043d…
05-02 11:36:20	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in May 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x2285e3…
05-02 08:56:50	Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x1b9267…
05-02 08:56:36	Will Trump post "Triumphal Arc" or "Triumphal Arch" on Truth Social this week?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xb73346…
05-01 17:03:16	Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 20+ times at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x66ee5a…
05-01 00:03:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xe43b28…
04-30 12:31:04	Will Trump say "Melania" or "First Lady" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x286deb…
04-30 12:30:20	Will Trump say "Obamacare" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xfce087…
04-30 12:30:18	Will Trump say "Ballroom" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x30b17a…
04-30 12:30:06	Will Trump say "Mars" at The Villages on May 1?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x7c5444…
04-30 09:13:10	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	SELL	17	44¢	$7	0x97f706…
04-29 23:27:38	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0xc9ff35…
04-29 23:26:28	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x1686cd…
04-29 11:54:02	Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x875704…
04-29 11:51:14	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x352543…
04-29 11:49:46	Will Powell say "Iran" during April press conference?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x63b8c1…
04-29 08:00:24	Trump approval Up or Down this week?	Up	SELL	33	45¢	$15	0x6cbd33…
04-28 18:42:12	Trump approval Up or Down this week?	Up	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x4cb122…
04-28 18:05:40	Will "Iran" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 27)	Yes	SELL	8	0¢	$0	0x306ae6…
04-28 10:51:44	Will "Iran" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 27)	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xc3d302…
04-28 10:42:30	Will Keir Starmer say "Europe" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x01c3dc…
04-28 09:46:22	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	Yes	SELL	21	6¢	$1	0xa44a67…
04-28 09:46:10	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	582	0¢	$1	0xc9e826…
04-25 19:24:02	Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x4efd11…
04-22 12:29:24	Will Sheila Korth-Focken win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	SELL	17	0¢	$0	0xaee8ea…
04-21 17:47:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	55¢	$19	0x40d189…
04-18 10:22:18	Will Sheila Korth-Focken win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0xd12d1f…
04-18 10:17:42	Will Trump say "Elizabeth" during King Charles visit?	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x2b3fe7…
04-17 12:01:54	will trump say moon or astronaut during tpusa events on april 17	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x5b0b34…
04-16 18:55:12	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	SELL	38	83¢	$32	0xe00a64…
04-16 18:52:38	Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	582	0¢	$2	0xc180a5…
04-16 18:45:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xfd9042…
04-16 18:31:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	SELL	51	64¢	$32	0x9fa497…
04-14 20:32:38	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0xb7722e…
04-14 20:32:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Alex Jones by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	20¢	$3	0x164123…
04-14 20:17:08	btc updown 5m 1776197700	Down	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xdb0191…
04-14 20:15:44	Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x443986…
04-13 22:48:45	Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	No	BUY	51	59¢	$30	0x905731…
04-13 22:46:31	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	38	79¢	$30	0x245ac7…
04-13 22:45:25	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	41¢	$20	0x14a237…
04-13 22:40:03	Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 30?	No	SELL	42	83¢	$35	0xa80af0…
04-13 08:16:09	Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	94	88¢	$82	0x9e5f64…
04-12 23:55:13	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	26	39¢	$10	0x95b540…
04-12 18:42:57	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	77	98¢	$75	0xd52769…
04-12 08:40:55	Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?	Yes	SELL	34	24¢	$8	0x3fa01a…
04-12 08:40:27	Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	No	SELL	32	78¢	$25	0x315413…
04-11 23:29:11	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	SELL	26	65¢	$17	0x1d42a8…
04-11 15:20:35	Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	46	6¢	$3	0x0750be…
04-11 10:24:19	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	SELL	43	56¢	$24	0x337e2f…
04-11 10:07:27	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xfb294f…
04-10 08:15:03	Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30?	No	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0xfc57f6…
04-10 08:14:17	Pakistan military action against Kabul by April 30?	No	BUY	42	72¢	$30	0x77046f…
04-09 22:52:05	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	SELL	128	84¢	$108	0xeb5bef…
04-09 18:58:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xb6e36e…
04-09 18:44:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0x4ecf67…
04-09 12:58:37	Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0x7d9080…
04-08 12:58:43	will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be 20 or more on april 12 2026	No	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xe2e85f…
04-08 12:03:45	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0x721ffd…
04-08 12:03:17	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x4eb742…
04-08 11:59:29	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x3b8836…
04-08 11:58:49	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0x16078e…
04-08 11:50:17	Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	94	43¢	$40	0x95aa5f…
04-08 09:43:39	Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	36	32¢	$11	0x84b3bf…
04-07 23:19:03	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	SELL	29	85¢	$25	0xf80a72…
04-07 22:57:21	houthis successfully target shipping by april 15	No	SELL	27	86¢	$23	0xf4393d…
04-07 22:56:55	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	SELL	25	70¢	$17	0x8a5315…
04-07 22:55:33	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	SELL	25	91¢	$22	0xbf21df…
04-07 20:52:15	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	SELL	26	88¢	$23	0xfc2471…
04-07 10:27:05	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0xc31a2a…
04-07 10:26:13	Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	No	SELL	23	35¢	$8	0x0e6e26…
04-07 10:24:19	Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30?	No	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x1fd3e8…
04-07 10:15:43	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x86e349…
04-06 20:19:07	will trump say world cup during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x260df2…
04-05 10:51:19	will 35 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 30 april 5	No	SELL	7	92¢	$7	0xe99262…
04-04 13:44:15	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xb39c29…
04-04 11:57:19	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x0cee35…
04-03 23:33:13	Will Trump talk to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in April?	No	SELL	35	87¢	$31	0xd84e2c…
04-03 19:20:59	will 35 39 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 30 april 5	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xc0d456…
04-03 11:48:07	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x4e4556…
04-02 20:15:11	will trump say obliterated or obliteration during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xeeb8cb…
04-02 20:14:45	will trump say sleepy joe or biden during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xe90072…
04-02 20:14:39	will trump say world cup during the white house easter egg roll	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xdf7bbf…
04-02 18:24:55	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0x3e7f97…
04-01 11:50:13	Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x4d3e8a…
04-01 11:49:27	houthis successfully target shipping by april 15	No	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0xf0260c…
04-01 11:48:19	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x53d3be…
04-01 11:47:35	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x4bbdc5…
04-01 11:46:39	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	44	0¢	$0	0x58c9fc…
04-01 11:42:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x3c2a00…
04-01 11:12:59	naim qassem out as hezbollahs secretary general by march 31 2026	No	SELL	112	98¢	$110	0x11b20c…
03-31 22:50:15	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	No	BUY	128	78¢	$100	0x17fc00…