Rigid-Environment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$158

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.1%

Resolved

Trades

193

lifetime

Volume

$555

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 05-18 06:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

81% 42% +$158

Other

15% — —

Politics

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 94 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	35	$56	59	59	+0	Up	$-8	05-13 04:19
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	3	$54	84	84	+0	open	—	05-18 06:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$51	42	42	+0	Down	+$31	05-08 00:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	2	$34	156	0	+156	Up	+$122	05-08 00:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	17	$32	45	20	+24	Down	$-0	05-12 09:47
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31?	2	$30	400	400	+0	open	—	05-11 23:14
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	12	$29	18	18	+0	Up	+$7	05-12 00:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	2	$28	86	0	+86	Down	+$59	05-08 07:13
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	16	$25	24	24	+0	Down	$-3	05-12 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	2	$25	104	0	+104	Up	$-25	05-08 00:07
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	13	$22	21	21	+0	Up	+$0	05-13 04:24
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$21	94	94	+0	open	—	05-12 10:11
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	17	$20	30	30	+0	Up	$-12	05-12 09:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	14	$19	31	9	+21	Down	$-7	05-12 09:52
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	6	$13	9	9	+0	Down	+$3	05-12 01:02
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	6	$12	9	7	+2	Up	+$2	05-11 23:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	5	$11	28	0	+28	Down	$-11	05-08 07:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	1	$10	1,000	0	+1,000	Down	$-10	05-08 07:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	1	$10	33	0	+33	Up	+$23	05-08 07:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	1	$10	59	0	+59	Up	$-10	05-08 07:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	10	$10	20	0	+20	Up	+$10	05-11 23:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	6	$9	14	14	+0	Down	$-1	05-11 23:27
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	5	$8	7	7	+0	Down	+$2	05-12 00:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	6	$5	24	0	+24	Up	$-5	05-12 00:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	1	$5	50	0	+50	Up	$-5	05-07 23:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	5	$5	11	0	+11	Down	$-3	05-13 04:07
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	1	$1	4	0	+4	Down	$-1	05-13 04:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 06:10:09	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	84	29¢	$24	0x3b03bf…
05-17 01:04:39	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xa6c1e3…
05-16 23:48:24	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	32¢	$20	0x2ccbbf…
05-13 04:24:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0x4c8025…
05-13 04:24:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x0916b7…
05-13 04:24:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x075e05…
05-13 04:24:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x05857d…
05-13 04:24:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xf3b648…
05-13 04:24:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x9f1a03…
05-13 04:24:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x92cb64…
05-13 04:24:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x77de6a…
05-13 04:23:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	12	67¢	$8	0xf361a6…
05-13 04:20:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x3eeb6a…
05-13 04:20:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xa91b2f…
05-13 04:20:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x396ed3…
05-13 04:20:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xded198…
05-13 04:19:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	SELL	45	39¢	$17	0xfbcbb1…
05-13 04:19:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x0d641a…
05-13 04:19:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xe47411…
05-13 04:19:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa934a3…
05-13 04:19:30	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2df284…
05-13 04:19:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb4bb0e…
05-13 04:19:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6d669f…
05-13 04:19:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4a5540…
05-13 04:19:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x0156a9…
05-13 04:17:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x911b76…
05-13 04:17:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x1c178b…
05-13 04:16:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x951d80…
05-13 04:16:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf2904f…
05-13 04:16:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x4344e5…
05-13 04:15:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xdd24ed…
05-13 04:15:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x84ef01…
05-13 04:15:56	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x06c013…
05-13 04:15:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x0798a9…
05-13 04:15:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0x924666…
05-13 04:14:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xf10479…
05-13 04:14:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8e142d…
05-13 04:14:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x4e7c3c…
05-13 04:14:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe04d04…
05-13 04:14:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xd3cd86…
05-13 04:14:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	4	49¢	$2	0xf595cb…
05-13 04:14:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe0a054…
05-13 04:14:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xaaa062…
05-13 04:13:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6b574c…
05-13 04:13:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x5a0531…
05-13 04:13:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xb61a36…
05-13 04:13:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8bc806…
05-13 04:13:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xc05507…
05-13 04:13:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4d847f…
05-13 04:13:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xd854c6…
05-13 04:13:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4f24b5…
05-13 04:12:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x18a3d3…
05-13 04:07:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xb97ed9…
05-13 04:07:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x60a19d…
05-13 04:07:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x53a24c…
05-13 04:07:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x0bc506…
05-13 04:07:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7b02c5…
05-12 10:11:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Yes	SELL	94	6¢	$6	0xd334a6…
05-12 10:04:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	SELL	13	25¢	$3	0x1f8609…
05-12 10:03:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	SELL	11	70¢	$8	0x26b693…
05-12 10:03:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x4f38d1…
05-12 10:03:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xc8e3ff…
05-12 10:02:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xef35ea…
05-12 10:02:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x4f2ca2…
05-12 10:02:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x34e89c…
05-12 10:00:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x6ecc93…
05-12 10:00:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xf43e59…
05-12 10:00:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x189387…
05-12 09:59:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x22006c…
05-12 09:59:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x339d04…
05-12 09:59:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x1bd663…
05-12 09:59:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xd824bd…
05-12 09:59:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x6c778b…
05-12 09:59:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x809c67…
05-12 09:58:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	30	15¢	$4	0xedf245…
05-12 09:56:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xde04ac…
05-12 09:55:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x9d6dc9…
05-12 09:55:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x33c40e…
05-12 09:55:39	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x1af96d…
05-12 09:55:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xbdf02f…
05-12 09:55:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xef2228…
05-12 09:55:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x081991…
05-12 09:54:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xac229f…
05-12 09:54:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x6738c3…
05-12 09:54:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x644495…
05-12 09:54:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xe86417…
05-12 09:54:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x730c37…
05-12 09:54:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xed46ae…
05-12 09:54:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd28156…
05-12 09:54:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x891d6e…
05-12 09:54:29	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x7a4bfc…
05-12 09:52:50	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xc52034…
05-12 09:51:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	9	63¢	$6	0x0a4431…
05-12 09:51:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x6dcb08…
05-12 09:50:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xd6052a…
05-12 09:50:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x47edc6…
05-12 09:50:12	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x928ef5…
05-12 09:50:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x7eadf6…
05-12 09:50:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x649ad3…
05-12 09:50:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x50c548…