First-Lookout — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$529

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-27

last 05-23 17:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

57% 100% +$3

Politics

36% — —

Sports

7% 50% $-3

Other

0% 0% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the US strike Iran next?	4	$94	2,003	2,003	+0	open	—	03-01 10:21
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$61	927	927	+0	open	—	02-28 06:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	2	$50	90	0	+90	open	—	05-21 22:27
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	2	$34	125	0	+125	open	—	02-28 06:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	3	$32	38	8	+30	open	—	05-22 09:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	1	$25	50	0	+50	open	—	05-22 15:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	1	$25	42	0	+42	open	—	05-22 22:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	1	$25	45	0	+45	open	—	05-22 22:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	1	$25	34	0	+34	open	—	05-22 22:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	1	$25	34	0	+34	open	—	05-22 09:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	3	$21	18	11	+6	Up	+$1	05-08 20:00
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	1	$15	22	0	+22	Pistons	+$7	05-07 23:23
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic	1	$10	126	0	+126	open	—	05-03 21:13
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	1	$10	25	0	+25	Cavaliers	$-10	05-08 09:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	05-23 17:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	05-23 17:45
btc updown 5m 1772351100	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	03-01 07:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	1	$10	18	0	+18	open	—	05-22 15:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-23 17:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	1	$5	16	0	+16	open	—	05-22 09:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	open	—	05-22 09:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-21 22:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	1	$5	6	0	+6	Up	+$1	05-08 15:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-21 22:19
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	Up	$-1	05-08 15:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-23 17:51:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x14b822…
05-23 17:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x6e9f0a…
05-23 17:41:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xc4ed30…
05-22 22:52:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xb64afd…
05-22 22:46:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	45	56¢	$25	0xdfa3db…
05-22 22:41:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x7ac843…
05-22 15:55:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xdf97c4…
05-22 15:48:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xa6d9d5…
05-22 09:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x1c2636…
05-22 09:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0x069819…
05-22 09:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x3c3727…
05-22 09:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0xbf02cd…
05-22 09:18:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x886be3…
05-22 09:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xa95e32…
05-21 22:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0xcd8665…
05-21 22:25:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	56	44¢	$25	0x7f269f…
05-21 22:21:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x2e7990…
05-21 22:19:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x62550f…
05-08 20:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x1e9444…
05-08 19:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x123224…
05-08 19:57:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xc5253f…
05-08 15:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x70d304…
05-08 15:48:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x1cca76…
05-08 09:47:07	Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Pistons	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x0f8693…
05-07 23:23:58	Cavaliers vs. Pistons	Pistons	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0xaa6d20…
05-03 21:13:50	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic	Magic	BUY	126	8¢	$10	0x540162…
03-01 10:21:45	Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	SELL	614	2¢	$12	0x571648…
03-01 07:46:11	btc updown 5m 1772351100	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x46d349…
02-28 19:14:31	Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	BUY	614	5¢	$29	0x89d0e6…
02-28 19:13:51	Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	SELL	1,389	2¢	$29	0x42ce1d…
02-28 12:03:47	Will the US strike Iran next?	Yes	BUY	1,389	2¢	$25	0x253cdf…
02-28 06:27:15	US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	69¢	$11	0xe51b36…
02-28 06:26:05	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	SELL	927	1¢	$10	0x6ac8bd…
02-27 15:50:45	US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	21¢	$23	0xe6c700…
02-27 15:50:29	us strikes iran by february 27 2026	Yes	BUY	927	5¢	$51	0x698960…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	21	$24.4K	706	05-23 17:55
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	20	$30.5K	295	05-23 17:51
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	19	$6.26K	959	05-23 17:54
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	17	$38.4K	1,796	05-23 17:56
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	17	$12.7K	2,076	05-23 17:54
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	17	$6.09K	416	05-23 17:51
(anonymous) 0x48ac…4a7e	17	$4.35K	1,387	05-23 17:54
(anonymous) 0xba67…4727	17	$4.27K	757	05-23 17:54