Vivid-Sorrow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

5.0%

Resolved

Trades

340

lifetime

Volume

$10.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-12 09:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Sports

57% 25% $-0

Other

22% — —

Politics

18% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	20	$667	356	356	+0	open	—	03-03 13:06
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	19	$580	302	302	+0	open	—	03-02 23:04
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	14	$452	233	233	-0	No	$-0	03-03 00:30
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	16	$427	204	236	-32	open	—	03-02 15:26
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	12	$424	220	220	+0	open	—	03-02 09:41
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	10	$380	197	197	+0	open	—	03-02 17:12
Will France win Eurovision 2026?	10	$310	164	164	+0	open	—	03-02 18:34
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$301	155	155	+0	No	$-0	03-02 04:14
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	10	$294	153	153	+0	open	—	03-04 06:25
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	6	$289	151	151	+0	open	—	01-12 20:38
will marty supreme win best picture at the 98th academy awards	6	$282	144	144	+0	open	—	02-26 23:31
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	11	$277	148	148	+0	open	—	03-02 04:11
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	9	$259	137	137	+0	open	—	02-27 08:06
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	8	$254	130	130	+0	open	—	02-27 02:00
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	17	$227	118	118	+0	open	—	02-01 06:29
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	6	$215	113	113	+0	open	—	03-02 17:06
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	6	$207	109	109	+0	open	—	03-01 06:35
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League?	5	$198	93	111	-19	open	—	02-11 15:28
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$182	97	97	+0	open	—	03-03 00:31
will the us next strike iran on march 8 2026 et	4	$175	89	89	+0	open	—	02-26 06:34
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	4	$172	90	90	+0	open	—	02-11 15:36
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$165	89	89	+0	open	—	02-26 06:27
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	4	$157	82	82	+0	open	—	02-26 09:24
will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	4	$148	77	77	+0	open	—	03-02 09:42
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$147	76	76	+0	open	—	03-03 00:39
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	4	$144	77	77	+0	open	—	03-02 20:00
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$144	77	77	+0	open	—	03-01 06:39
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	8	$142	73	73	+0	open	—	03-01 06:33
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	4	$139	71	71	+0	open	—	02-26 23:37
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	4	$135	70	70	+0	open	—	03-01 10:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-12 09:24:52	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	33	93¢	$31	0x85ca0c…
07-12 05:21:25	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	33	93¢	$31	0x9de929…
06-14 11:42:15	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x3a16c4…
03-04 06:25:41	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	37	96¢	$35	0xd202c1…
03-03 21:11:05	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	37	96¢	$35	0x86cff4…
03-03 13:06:13	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	27	93¢	$25	0xdfd86f…
03-03 04:45:51	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x07ee49…
03-03 00:39:11	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0xa07817…
03-03 00:38:43	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x0ad7a0…
03-03 00:38:13	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	26	92¢	$24	0x8b41a8…
03-03 00:37:41	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0x620890…
03-03 00:37:13	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	36	90¢	$32	0x781d62…
03-03 00:36:41	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	36	90¢	$32	0xf6597e…
03-03 00:35:27	Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	33	96¢	$32	0x26d937…
03-03 00:34:59	Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xf2ded0…
03-03 00:31:39	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	39	92¢	$36	0xf33e4e…
03-03 00:31:09	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	39	92¢	$36	0x44f406…
03-03 00:30:47	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	35	97¢	$33	0x1498a1…
03-03 00:30:19	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0xae88a3…
03-02 23:04:25	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	37	97¢	$35	0x5b8f30…
03-02 23:04:03	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0xc3ba01…
03-02 21:35:23	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	37	94¢	$35	0x3bc482…
03-02 21:34:53	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	37	94¢	$35	0xcac33d…
03-02 21:32:47	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0x10d665…
03-02 21:32:17	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$29	0xeffbbb…
03-02 20:02:05	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	32	96¢	$31	0x205032…
03-02 20:01:39	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	32	96¢	$31	0x07cdc5…
03-02 20:00:29	Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	39	94¢	$37	0x3532c4…
03-02 20:00:07	Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	39	94¢	$37	0x01b362…
03-02 18:37:13	Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	38	94¢	$35	0xed3ea8…
03-02 18:36:49	Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	38	94¢	$35	0xb2507f…
03-02 18:35:09	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	41	94¢	$38	0x3cab7e…
03-02 18:34:41	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	41	94¢	$38	0x3cd0fb…
03-02 18:34:07	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	39	94¢	$37	0x58d566…
03-02 18:33:35	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	39	94¢	$37	0x8466a0…
03-02 18:31:43	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	38	97¢	$37	0xe52e0e…
03-02 18:31:09	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x48514f…
03-02 17:13:53	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0xc9aa32…
03-02 17:13:25	will bitcoin dip to 45k in march 2026	No	BUY	27	97¢	$26	0xcf2e70…
03-02 17:13:01	will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	3	96¢	$3	0x32eac9…
03-02 17:12:37	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xa1ca3b…
03-02 17:12:09	will xander schauffele win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xbd56c6…
03-02 17:11:23	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x901750…
03-02 17:10:59	Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	30	98¢	$29	0xac82fc…
03-02 17:10:27	Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x2c73fd…
03-02 17:08:59	Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	36	98¢	$36	0x934f06…
03-02 17:08:35	Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	36	98¢	$36	0x2c218f…
03-02 17:06:25	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	35	95¢	$33	0xf8d92e…
03-02 17:05:59	Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x6b04a8…
03-02 17:05:35	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	42	94¢	$39	0xb5df46…
03-02 17:05:03	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	42	94¢	$39	0x2c0a9a…
03-02 15:27:17	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	35	96¢	$34	0x08b353…
03-02 15:26:51	Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	35	96¢	$34	0x9752a5…
03-02 15:26:25	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	3	91¢	$3	0x09d918…
03-02 15:26:05	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	29	97¢	$28	0x7e4be9…
03-02 15:25:43	Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	3	92¢	$3	0xe4d8c4…
03-02 15:24:53	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	29	97¢	$28	0xa0f56c…
03-02 12:35:31	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	37	96¢	$35	0xc35ee9…
03-02 12:34:53	Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	37	97¢	$36	0xe0cf9b…
03-02 12:34:09	will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0xb2c577…
03-02 12:33:43	will ludvig aberg win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x9d0549…
03-02 12:29:49	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	SELL	38	97¢	$37	0x3e6456…
03-02 12:29:21	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x41e3d6…
03-02 10:57:09	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	35	96¢	$34	0xf686cb…
03-02 10:56:35	Will France win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	35	96¢	$34	0xa938dd…
03-02 09:44:23	Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$30	0xcc9a98…
03-02 09:43:57	Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$30	0x1c2d63…
03-02 09:42:49	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	SELL	39	97¢	$38	0xdb2c26…
03-02 09:42:19	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0x39fafc…
03-02 09:41:27	Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	39	97¢	$38	0x2c3140…
03-02 09:41:01	Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0xe549f9…
03-02 08:07:19	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	SELL	38	96¢	$36	0xba18f6…
03-02 08:06:47	will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	No	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x898f62…
03-02 08:05:29	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0x21a0d2…
03-02 08:05:03	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0xa92239…
03-02 06:37:55	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	42	97¢	$40	0xf3cf14…
03-02 06:37:25	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0x441684…
03-02 06:34:33	will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	No	SELL	42	97¢	$41	0x8481c2…
03-02 06:34:05	will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	No	BUY	42	97¢	$41	0xa428b5…
03-02 04:16:59	will illinois win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	43	96¢	$41	0x113a56…
03-02 04:16:37	will illinois win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	43	96¢	$41	0x64ad11…
03-02 04:15:21	will kansas win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0x891b38…
03-02 04:14:53	will kansas win the 2026 ncaa tournament	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x159828…
03-02 04:14:29	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0x2e251e…
03-02 04:13:41	Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x07a1a6…
03-02 04:11:47	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	38	93¢	$36	0xaaa677…
03-02 04:10:57	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	38	93¢	$36	0x6d7ed1…
03-02 04:08:15	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x0efd38…
03-02 04:07:55	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	38	96¢	$37	0x9e44ea…
03-01 10:57:23	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x04400f…
03-01 10:52:17	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	38	96¢	$37	0xbfb1c5…
03-01 10:51:57	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	31	97¢	$31	0x8e96fd…
03-01 10:51:29	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$31	0xf9fd2c…
03-01 10:51:07	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0x2ae037…
03-01 10:50:45	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	34	98¢	$33	0x5189a6…
03-01 10:48:07	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	34	93¢	$31	0x7c7590…
03-01 10:47:45	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	BUY	34	93¢	$31	0x86ec23…
03-01 06:39:35	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0x8cd257…
03-01 06:39:05	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x8f4640…
03-01 06:37:27	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	35	97¢	$34	0xe8e399…