Roasted-Craft — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.7%

Resolved

Trades

128

lifetime

Volume

$346

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 06-22 07:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

42% — —

Crypto

32% 71% +$3

Other

26% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iran strike israel on march 8	2	$31	21	21	+0	open	—	03-08 13:43
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$17	10	10	+0	open	—	03-21 10:02
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	3	$16	520	0	+520	open	—	04-01 18:27
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	04-12 20:29
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 9 795	2	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	03-08 23:12
us evacuates beirut embassy by march 31	2	$12	37	37	+0	open	—	03-21 10:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$11	18	18	+0	Up	+$1	05-11 16:22
will green left win the second most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	1	$11	15	0	+15	open	—	03-21 10:06
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	2	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	04-08 06:02
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	03-15 11:56
us strikes iraq by march 31	1	$10	56	0	+56	open	—	03-06 10:33
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	3	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	04-11 03:05
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$10	7	7	+0	open	—	04-15 13:40
btc updown 5m 1780644600	6	$10	13	2	+11	open	—	06-05 07:33
will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	2	$9	79	79	+0	open	—	03-21 10:01
James Comey arrested by April 30?	2	$9	7	7	+0	open	—	04-29 17:50
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	2	$8	10	10	+0	open	—	03-21 10:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	1	$6	8	0	+8	Up	+$2	05-11 16:45
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	2	$5	12	12	+0	open	—	04-22 05:42
will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 3 6	1	$5	50	0	+50	open	—	04-03 06:14
will iran strike jordan in march	1	$5	19	0	+19	open	—	03-07 08:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	1	$5	15	0	+15	Down	$-5	05-11 16:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	Up	+$2	05-11 16:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	3	$5	8	0	+8	Down	+$3	05-12 18:27
btc updown 5m 1780644000	5	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	06-05 07:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	3	$5	7	0	+7	Up	$-2	05-12 19:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	5	$5	9	2	+8	open	—	05-30 05:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-28 04:33
will the social democrats win 35 39 seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	1	$4	10	0	+10	open	—	03-22 12:30
will liberal alliance win the second most seats in the danish folketing in the 2026 danish general election	1	$4	20	0	+20	open	—	03-21 10:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-22 07:45:10	btc updown 5m 1782114300	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x315903…
06-22 07:41:16	btc updown 5m 1782114000	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x40bed8…
06-22 07:38:28	btc updown 5m 1782113700	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x483bbf…
06-22 06:09:22	btc updown 5m 1782108300	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x0ee7b5…
06-22 06:03:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	87¢	$4	0x7fcce9…
06-17 08:56:52	btc updown 5m 1781686500	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x4b7221…
06-17 07:35:44	btc updown 5m 1781681700	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x55f5b8…
06-13 19:59:13	btc updown 5m 1781380500	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xa44d36…
06-13 18:21:06	btc updown 5m 1781374800	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe4b73b…
06-13 18:01:27	btc updown 5m 1781373600	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x87d62c…
06-12 17:45:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0xb61625…
06-12 14:05:31	btc updown 5m 1781273100	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xa7540f…
06-11 04:00:54	btc updown 5m 1781150400	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x03fa04…
06-11 03:59:15	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xfcbd68…
06-10 20:21:27	btc updown 5m 1781122800	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xb8ff10…
06-05 07:37:28	btc updown 5m 1780644900	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9b7f1b…
06-05 07:37:09	btc updown 5m 1780644900	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x82a32b…
06-05 07:33:33	btc updown 5m 1780644600	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x6b5a93…
06-05 07:33:01	btc updown 5m 1780644600	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x2155a2…
06-05 07:32:51	btc updown 5m 1780644600	Up	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xa11a9b…
06-05 07:32:07	btc updown 5m 1780644600	Up	SELL	2	35¢	$1	0x22d3c8…
06-05 07:31:58	btc updown 5m 1780644600	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x2d61d9…
06-05 07:31:40	btc updown 5m 1780644600	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xa7e5b3…
06-05 07:26:58	btc updown 5m 1780644300	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x2c9865…
06-05 07:26:18	btc updown 5m 1780644300	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x846f52…
06-05 07:22:42	btc updown 5m 1780644000	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x405202…
06-05 07:22:19	btc updown 5m 1780644000	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x89ca33…
06-05 07:22:13	btc updown 5m 1780644000	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x580ccc…
06-05 07:22:00	btc updown 5m 1780644000	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x5957d0…
06-05 07:21:18	btc updown 5m 1780644000	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x715264…
06-05 07:17:18	btc updown 5m 1780643700	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xc909d2…
06-05 07:16:54	btc updown 5m 1780643700	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x091a77…
06-03 09:55:13	Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0x3f9285…
05-30 06:37:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xf715fb…
05-30 06:30:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xee6ca6…
05-30 06:26:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xabe5ae…
05-30 06:22:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x2cc4bc…
05-30 06:11:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xfb18b8…
05-30 06:11:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf9b4a2…
05-30 06:06:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x214605…
05-30 06:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x19708d…
05-30 06:00:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x9a792e…
05-30 05:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x3577bd…
05-30 05:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x30f06c…
05-30 05:55:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xcf06fe…
05-30 05:54:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x5b1e68…
05-30 05:46:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8e6867…
05-30 05:46:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x31f614…
05-30 05:43:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x82185d…
05-30 05:42:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x565c50…
05-30 05:41:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xaf4591…
05-30 05:40:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x700dc6…
05-30 05:40:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x6fe915…
05-30 05:32:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x2c5af7…
05-30 05:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xbe92ff…
05-30 05:28:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xc8547c…
05-29 07:46:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xb973e0…
05-14 11:16:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xf0b959…
05-14 11:15:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x7ec081…
05-13 05:21:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x793e0a…
05-13 05:18:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x187fc4…
05-13 05:15:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xade28e…
05-13 05:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xdbb2b4…
05-13 05:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x41e877…
05-12 19:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x7a7b3a…
05-12 19:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x022d72…
05-12 19:05:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0x89d7b5…
05-12 18:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x94da2a…
05-12 18:55:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x72d0fc…
05-12 18:51:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xd6608c…
05-12 18:50:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xf9bf16…
05-12 18:47:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xb839dd…
05-12 18:27:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xaed438…
05-12 18:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x114e79…
05-12 18:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xba5821…
05-12 04:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xee41df…
05-12 04:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xca8b70…
05-12 04:41:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x127d2f…
05-11 16:45:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xfeb889…
05-11 16:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x5750e6…
05-11 16:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xb6ef71…
05-11 16:22:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	18	35¢	$6	0x338e67…
05-11 16:22:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x46ff4e…
04-30 04:26:10	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x9735e6…
04-30 04:06:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x9b7cef…
04-30 04:04:06	Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	1¢	$0	0x28f887…
04-29 17:50:20	James Comey arrested by April 30?	Yes	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xbc876b…
04-29 07:32:04	James Comey arrested by April 30?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xc42017…
04-28 04:33:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xccb030…
04-22 05:42:20	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xa3b5e3…
04-19 20:04:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x6d788c…
04-15 13:40:50	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0x9005e5…
04-12 20:29:49	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x55b483…
04-12 06:17:47	will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xbca416…
04-12 04:44:05	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 6 9	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x4dd6dd…
04-12 04:43:17	will tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election by 0 3	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x1a181a…
04-11 06:39:35	jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 14 349 162	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x995eda…
04-11 03:05:51	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd52023…
04-10 07:22:03	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xa093a9…
04-09 04:47:07	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x2b2253…