Verifiable-Gearshift — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$242

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

36.1%

Resolved

Trades

281

lifetime

Volume

$27.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$98

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 06-30 18:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Politics

41% — —

Other

28% — —

Sports

27% 40% +$242

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us invade iran by march 31	25	$7.6K	34,199	34,199	+0	open	—	03-30 10:10
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	5	$2.9K	9,018	9,018	+0	open	—	04-04 23:44
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	7	$2.0K	11,837	0	+11,837	open	—	04-10 22:49
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	6	$1.9K	4,427	0	+4,427	open	—	05-14 10:35
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	9	$1.2K	45,073	65,284	-20,211	open	—	06-27 18:35
ebola pandemic in 2026	1	$575	0	8,220	-8,220	open	—	06-04 10:25
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	1	$533	9,548	0	+9,548	open	—	03-30 22:04
GTA VI released before June 2026?	3	$460	3,916	3,916	+0	open	—	05-26 10:38
Nothing Ever Happens: May	4	$393	632	632	+0	open	—	05-25 17:07
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	2	$374	1,765	1,765	+0	open	—	04-25 19:19
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?	2	$363	727	727	+0	open	—	05-23 18:06
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase march 31 april 6	3	$350	13,516	0	+13,516	open	—	04-06 01:38
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	3	$350	912	0	+912	open	—	05-19 21:08
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	6	$312	4,108	5,100	-992	open	—	06-30 18:17
mlb pit atl 2026 06 07	2	$300	589	0	+589	open	—	06-07 18:07
mlb atl cws 2026 06 10	2	$300	1,099	0	+1,099	open	—	06-11 00:49
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	4	$286	328	321	+7	open	—	04-28 03:36
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners	6	$279	1,960	0	+1,960	Seattle Mariners	$-279	05-06 22:35
Kash Patel out by May 31?	2	$213	769	769	+0	open	—	05-10 03:39
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves	5	$210	503	0	+503	open	—	04-30 00:47
mlb atl sd 2026 06 24	1	$200	769	0	+769	open	—	06-25 01:42
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	3	$195	159	156	+3	open	—	04-26 02:03
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets	3	$192	162	159	+3	open	—	04-26 22:30
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals	7	$176	560	85	+475	open	—	05-03 01:24
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	2	$150	738	0	+738	Sean Strickland	+$588	05-10 03:38
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies	4	$144	369	211	+158	open	—	05-03 01:10
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies	6	$143	777	56	+721	open	—	05-02 02:18
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves	2	$130	450	0	+450	open	—	05-23 22:46
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets	3	$120	295	0	+295	open	—	04-26 22:34
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	2	$110	105	101	+5	open	—	04-27 15:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 18:17:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	5,100	4¢	$189	0x19a1f5…
06-27 18:35:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	SELL	34,852	0¢	$35	0xf87cf4…
06-25 01:42:37	mlb atl sd 2026 06 24	Atlanta Braves	BUY	769	26¢	$200	0x69b737…
06-24 00:53:29	mlb atl sd 2026 06 23	Atlanta Braves	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x7d3bd5…
06-20 20:25:35	mlb mil atl 2026 06 20	Atlanta Braves	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x18020b…
06-19 23:07:16	mlb mil atl 2026 06 19	Atlanta Braves	BUY	256	39¢	$100	0x8a855d…
06-17 05:53:56	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,914	3¢	$117	0xd7fe55…
06-15 19:52:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	122	3¢	$4	0xd14161…
06-15 19:43:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	16	3¢	$0	0x0046a5…
06-15 19:42:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x7b062c…
06-15 19:42:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	51	3¢	$2	0x7ea8e1…
06-14 18:26:27	mlb atl nym 2026 06 14	Atlanta Braves	BUY	375	16¢	$60	0xcb4f3e…
06-13 21:27:21	mlb mia pit 2026 06 13	Miami Marlins	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0x1f623e…
06-11 19:14:28	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10,052	1¢	$100	0x3d32ba…
06-11 02:20:55	mlb hou laa 2026 06 10	Houston Astros	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0x8b61cb…
06-11 00:49:12	mlb atl cws 2026 06 10	Atlanta Braves	BUY	385	26¢	$100	0xc2ed6f…
06-11 00:48:51	mlb atl cws 2026 06 10	Atlanta Braves	BUY	714	28¢	$200	0xc8254a…
06-08 00:44:57	mlb sf chc 2026 06 07	Chicago Cubs	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0xffdf62…
06-07 18:07:06	mlb pit atl 2026 06 07	Atlanta Braves	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x25c066…
06-07 18:00:45	mlb pit atl 2026 06 07	Atlanta Braves	BUY	385	52¢	$200	0x8a06f8…
06-06 02:06:57	mlb mil col 2026 06 05	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0xcdeb93…
06-06 02:06:18	mlb cle tex 2026 06 05	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	130	23¢	$30	0x552d37…
06-05 00:02:21	mlb tor atl 2026 06 04	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x833cbe…
06-04 22:02:33	mlb tor atl 2026 06 04	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0x47de82…
06-04 19:23:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	13,800	1¢	$152	0x289153…
06-04 10:25:25	ebola pandemic in 2026	Yes	SELL	8,220	7¢	$575	0x64c888…
06-04 01:14:25	mlb tex stl 2026 06 03	Texas Rangers	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x40e14b…
06-03 23:57:55	mlb tor atl 2026 06 03	Atlanta Braves	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xe66bb7…
06-02 12:10:48	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30,432	1¢	$446	0x915232…
06-01 01:05:00	Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago Cubs	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0xe50d48…
06-01 00:17:10	Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals	Chicago Cubs	BUY	143	21¢	$30	0xec066c…
05-31 20:19:24	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3,149	2¢	$75	0x9007dd…
05-31 20:07:40	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4,524	2¢	$100	0x6dbc2b…
05-31 19:08:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5,000	2¢	$100	0xbf0bcd…
05-31 19:07:47	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	SELL	337	29¢	$98	0x05af4e…
05-31 18:06:01	Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets	Miami Marlins	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0x98ba2a…
05-31 01:46:27	San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies	San Francisco Giants	BUY	97	31¢	$30	0x4b8b54…
05-30 23:48:32	Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds	Atlanta Braves	BUY	93	43¢	$40	0x330dd9…
05-30 21:31:04	Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets	Miami Marlins	BUY	47	43¢	$20	0x26a7c2…
05-28 23:15:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5,100	2¢	$102	0x3c8b67…
05-28 09:24:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3,448	3¢	$100	0xd2f73e…
05-28 00:52:58	Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox	Atlanta Braves	BUY	2,404	0¢	$10	0x8df920…
05-27 22:31:22	Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	BUY	528	2¢	$10	0xfe5a62…
05-27 01:18:14	Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	BUY	144	21¢	$30	0xfa3fa2…
05-26 23:05:37	Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox	Atlanta Braves	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0xb9adec…
05-26 22:59:31	Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox	Atlanta Braves	BUY	167	30¢	$50	0xd79c88…
05-26 10:38:41	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,916	2¢	$60	0x99ec7e…
05-26 10:22:38	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,100	9¢	$100	0xb97772…
05-26 10:21:54	GTA VI released before June 2026?	Yes	BUY	2,815	11¢	$300	0x7e3f8e…
05-25 23:59:12	Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	BUY	111	36¢	$40	0xa36a77…
05-25 17:07:15	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	271	60¢	$164	0xc03e56…
05-25 16:43:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	9,909	1¢	$50	0xd511d1…
05-25 16:13:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11,076	0¢	$50	0xd75292…
05-24 22:18:58	Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0xf25ec2…
05-24 19:46:31	Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xe629b4…
05-24 18:41:37	Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0xeab4d4…
05-24 18:05:43	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0xcd35d9…
05-24 18:05:08	New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins	New York Mets	BUY	87	46¢	$40	0xf68b89…
05-24 01:11:35	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	107	19¢	$20	0xee8bcc…
05-24 00:18:30	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	271	37¢	$100	0x8b3133…
05-23 22:46:50	Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x65f8d0…
05-23 18:10:44	Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves	Washington Nationals	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0xc53109…
05-23 18:06:13	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?	Yes	SELL	727	22¢	$163	0x1edfde…
05-23 18:03:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24?	Yes	BUY	727	28¢	$200	0xe41678…
05-23 15:26:46	Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0xf2d8c5…
05-23 02:52:01	Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels	Texas Rangers	BUY	125	16¢	$20	0x29b59c…
05-22 20:24:27	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	98	41¢	$40	0xbb8a7a…
05-22 20:23:54	Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	77	39¢	$30	0xcd4b9d…
05-22 20:23:31	Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	BUY	190	21¢	$40	0x09e074…
05-21 22:07:01	New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0xd42639…
05-21 18:30:11	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0xac3d79…
05-21 18:29:36	Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0xca4320…
05-21 16:20:55	Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	Colorado Rockies	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0x4573af…
05-21 16:19:44	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Something	SELL	362	22¢	$80	0x3cbf8e…
05-21 00:56:43	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	BUY	111	27¢	$30	0xf39ac3…
05-21 00:56:19	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	BUY	375	8¢	$30	0x80600d…
05-20 22:36:22	Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners	Chicago White Sox	BUY	333	6¢	$20	0x8f3150…
05-20 02:17:19	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Something	BUY	362	14¢	$50	0xc3df37…
05-20 02:15:04	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	SELL	500	7¢	$33	0x95e81a…
05-20 02:14:45	Trump kiss by May 31?	No	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0x495dc5…
05-20 02:02:39	Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees	Toronto Blue Jays	SELL	188	22¢	$41	0x37e7f7…
05-20 01:39:00	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x385511…
05-20 01:11:28	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0x42cf3d…
05-20 01:11:14	Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	BUY	158	19¢	$30	0x5fa339…
05-20 01:10:54	Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0x09f3d2…
05-19 21:08:00	Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	Atlanta Braves	BUY	500	30¢	$150	0xffe12f…
05-19 20:54:48	Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	Atlanta Braves	BUY	204	49¢	$100	0x5140db…
05-19 20:53:43	Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	Atlanta Braves	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0xa9c79c…
05-19 01:43:51	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	BUY	261	4¢	$10	0x84f17f…
05-19 00:32:51	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0x268c2f…
05-19 00:32:23	New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0x791378…
05-19 00:31:54	Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	1,667	1¢	$10	0xe8ee32…
05-19 00:31:40	Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	Atlanta Braves	BUY	774	4¢	$30	0xf2935b…
05-18 20:01:26	Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xffc535…
05-18 01:34:02	Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0xfd16a9…
05-17 01:15:52	Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	333	6¢	$20	0x2ee90a…
05-17 01:02:24	Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	BUY	250	16¢	$40	0x14903a…
05-16 23:56:17	Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox	Chicago Cubs	BUY	400	10¢	$40	0xefd504…
05-16 23:54:46	Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros	Texas Rangers	BUY	115	26¢	$30	0x463268…
05-16 15:54:39	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0xff3f40…