Thin-Alfalfa — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$96

Unrealized P&L

+$33

Hit rate

98.0%

Resolved

Trades

243

lifetime

Volume

$1.06K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$11

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 06-29 19:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

49% 0% $-2

Politics

34% 100% +$99

Tech

15% — —

Crypto

2% 0% $-1

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	Yes		-100	$-38	6¢	$-6	+$32	06-09 14:46
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+64	$3	6¢	$4	+$1	06-28 12:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	4	$132	200	200	+0	Yes	+$98	05-09 05:09
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	6	$78	200	200	+0	open	—	06-27 13:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$64	100	100	+0	open	—	04-11 23:52
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	9	$63	100	100	+0	open	—	05-06 15:59
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	4	$62	100	250	-150	open	—	06-09 14:46
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	14	$43	700	0	+700	open	—	05-11 02:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$41	75	75	+0	open	—	04-28 14:15
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	2	$40	300	300	+0	open	—	02-01 17:48
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$34	50	0	+50	open	—	04-26 17:36
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	5	$32	100	50	+50	open	—	05-28 14:21
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	8	$24	50	50	+0	open	—	04-09 04:30
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$24	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-10 14:22
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$19	500	0	+500	open	—	03-05 03:44
Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	6	$19	50	50	+0	open	—	05-22 03:43
spx up or down on february 3 2026	2	$18	25	25	+0	open	—	02-03 14:43
will trump praise allah again by april 15 423	2	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	04-14 10:08
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$18	100	100	+0	open	—	04-07 02:04
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28	3	$18	100	100	+0	open	—	02-02 08:01
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	5	$17	12	12	+0	open	—	06-28 22:50
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$17	9	9	+0	open	—	02-28 21:38
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	2	$15	50	0	+50	open	—	06-26 09:17
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	04-07 22:38
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	2	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	03-29 06:33
will february 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record	3	$14	100	22	+78	open	—	02-03 05:13
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	3	$13	100	100	+0	open	—	03-22 23:56
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?	3	$12	20	20	+0	open	—	04-14 04:45
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	44	$12	160	0	+160	open	—	05-29 10:50
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	4	$12	100	100	+0	Yes	+$1	04-16 06:07
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	3	$11	15	15	+0	open	—	05-21 15:42
will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	6	$11	500	250	+250	open	—	03-18 01:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 19:21:25	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	Yes	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0xa5b09a…
06-28 22:50:29	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	SELL	4	82¢	$3	0xd1c116…
06-28 22:40:04	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x41c4b9…
06-28 12:04:14	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x27b075…
06-28 02:27:56	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	14	5¢	$1	0xbb5e62…
06-28 02:07:02	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x16f1a8…
06-27 20:26:35	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x17837e…
06-27 19:08:38	will the next claude sonnet model be released by june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	1	5¢	$0	0xd03f1d…
06-27 13:22:22	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	150	22¢	$33	0x05e918…
06-27 05:24:50	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x2509b0…
06-27 05:19:25	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	SELL	2	10¢	$0	0x029ee2…
06-27 05:18:13	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	No	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0x05d1ec…
06-26 14:50:25	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x874962…
06-26 13:21:43	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xa9ba1a…
06-26 09:17:56	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x42cd37…
06-26 05:20:49	will the next claude sonnet model be released by july 2 2026	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x692509…
06-26 04:54:41	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138	No	BUY	19	4¢	$1	0x638836…
06-26 03:31:49	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31 668 138	No	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x002033…
06-21 20:46:01	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	45	3¢	$1	0xb050cd…
06-21 17:49:44	fifwc bel irn 2026 06 21 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x24f015…
06-21 06:29:49	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xd746a4…
06-19 20:19:14	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x77d1a2…
06-19 17:37:56	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x3f6471…
06-19 04:57:16	another gta vi trailer released by june 30	No	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x1a809b…
06-19 04:54:29	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x310aeb…
06-19 00:09:07	fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x069307…
06-18 14:12:01	fifwc can qat 2026 06 18 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x182298…
06-16 20:32:32	will xrp dip to 1 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0xbfdcaa…
06-14 03:35:00	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	26¢	$13	0xab5667…
06-12 02:47:48	spacex ipo will elon musk ring the bell 20260608201006493	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x50a490…
06-10 10:42:33	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xcb5e33…
06-09 23:29:54	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	49	19¢	$9	0x0d54ee…
06-09 14:46:43	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x608f83…
06-09 13:29:37	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	25¢	$25	0xde831b…
06-09 07:27:16	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0xb129f4…
06-09 07:25:03	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x0d6ca4…
06-08 03:05:51	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score below 1480	No	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xda130e…
06-08 03:04:55	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score below 1480	No	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x9df496…
06-08 03:04:55	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score below 1480	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x0379a7…
06-07 23:19:07	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	20¢	$20	0x316aa7…
06-07 09:28:06	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x08da95…
06-07 04:39:52	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x136b2e…
06-07 04:34:12	will the next claude opus 4pt8 model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score below 1480	No	BUY	144	1¢	$2	0x8112e6…
06-05 19:19:51	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	No	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xe33eb9…
06-04 12:22:40	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	9¢	$3	0xba57c5…
06-04 00:19:45	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	334	0¢	$1	0x36122f…
05-29 10:50:45	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0x40a77d…
05-29 05:13:28	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x977865…
05-29 02:53:53	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xfdee43…
05-28 14:21:05	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x673871…
05-28 13:57:58	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x3bbf19…
05-28 13:56:28	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	SELL	7	34¢	$2	0x6b88d3…
05-28 13:55:59	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	SELL	38	34¢	$13	0x456d30…
05-28 08:03:51	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0xf11ee6…
05-27 16:08:21	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	175	1¢	$1	0x51a012…
05-27 06:49:19	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x700095…
05-26 08:26:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	25	4¢	$1	0x5ec008…
05-26 08:17:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0x096a60…
05-23 04:38:32	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0x9e5b94…
05-22 03:43:39	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	Yes	SELL	18	20¢	$4	0xdf1765…
05-21 19:05:31	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0x773a4d…
05-21 15:54:53	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xaab1a2…
05-21 15:42:57	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	SELL	15	61¢	$9	0xbcbcc2…
05-21 02:38:22	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x27e693…
05-21 01:02:49	Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31?	No	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x99bbe5…
05-20 13:45:16	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	20¢	$1	0xbacccb…
05-17 23:50:19	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	Yes	SELL	7	21¢	$2	0x0c8e8e…
05-14 01:41:00	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb377f3…
05-12 15:49:58	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	21¢	$1	0xa1985c…
05-11 20:58:06	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	BUY	340	0¢	$1	0x72e76f…
05-11 19:08:42	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x81803c…
05-11 02:56:29	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	190	1¢	$2	0x82e8ce…
05-10 23:27:02	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x95600e…
05-10 23:17:42	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0xd4027a…
05-10 05:16:54	Critical Discord Incident by May 31?	Yes	SELL	19	25¢	$5	0x698103…
05-10 00:43:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x4d3600…
05-09 21:38:21	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xfb0401…
05-09 21:38:21	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xf6c883…
05-09 21:38:21	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x85d63c…
05-09 21:38:21	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x709a28…
05-09 21:38:21	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x2abbcc…
05-09 21:38:21	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x0b0d9d…
05-09 21:38:19	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xb67bb3…
05-09 21:38:19	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x74bf43…
05-09 21:38:19	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x6f1c93…
05-09 21:38:19	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x5e1de2…
05-09 21:38:19	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x53f85b…
05-09 21:38:19	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x201463…
05-09 21:38:19	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x17d645…
05-09 21:38:17	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xa73cad…
05-09 21:38:17	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xa6b24d…
05-09 21:38:17	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x8e9e02…
05-09 21:38:17	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x5b814c…
05-09 21:38:16	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xddf25e…
05-09 21:38:16	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xacc6d2…
05-09 21:38:16	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x803916…
05-09 21:38:16	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0x5df238…
05-09 21:38:14	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xc5dd6b…
05-09 21:38:14	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xc46136…
05-09 21:38:14	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xa4c5df…