Fearful-Pile — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$54

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.8%

Resolved

Trades

475

lifetime

Volume

$2.71K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 05-16 07:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 61% $-55

Politics

28% 50% +$1

Other

12% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 84 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (15) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	2	$178	104	104	+0	open	—	02-01 21:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	4	$106	120	120	+0	Up	+$2	05-10 16:01
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	2	$104	9,124	9,124	+0	open	—	04-28 22:19
moltbook ai agent sues a human by feb 28	3	$83	109	50	+59	open	—	02-02 20:58
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	5	$76	153	0	+153	open	—	02-05 19:20
us strikes iran by february 5 2026	3	$73	119	36	+83	open	—	02-04 22:56
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	2	$60	68	0	+68	open	—	01-23 19:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	2	$60	60	60	+0	Down	$-0	05-11 18:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	4	$55	195	70	+125	open	—	05-16 06:39
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	3	$52	66	66	+0	open	—	01-13 17:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	5	$52	60	60	+0	Down	+$2	05-09 13:34
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	4	$50	345	0	+345	open	—	02-28 10:22
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$45	57	4	+53	open	—	01-19 20:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	2	$45	60	60	+0	Down	+$2	05-11 06:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	3	$44	50	50	+0	Up	+$1	05-10 11:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	2	$40	100	0	+100	open	—	05-16 06:45
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	3	$40	66	0	+66	open	—	02-03 19:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	3	$34	80	0	+80	Down	+$6	05-11 17:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	2	$34	80	0	+80	Up	+$6	05-10 11:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	2	$34	80	0	+80	Down	+$6	05-09 15:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	4	$34	80	0	+80	Down	+$6	05-09 15:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	5	$34	80	0	+80	Up	+$6	05-09 23:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	10	$34	80	0	+80	Up	+$6	05-10 15:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	2	$33	40	40	+0	Down	$-0	05-12 21:17
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	2	$33	23	23	+0	open	—	02-03 17:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	2	$31	40	40	+0	Up	$-1	05-11 17:55
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$31	45	0	+45	open	—	02-03 19:22
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1	$28	35	0	+35	open	—	01-31 13:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	2	$25	60	0	+60	Down	+$5	05-09 13:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	6	$24	24	23	+1	Down	+$0	05-12 16:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 07:47:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xf94ccf…
05-16 07:43:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x2444ed…
05-16 07:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x47a8f0…
05-16 07:42:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x37886a…
05-16 07:12:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x3643b7…
05-16 07:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xd911bb…
05-16 07:06:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	SELL	24	7¢	$2	0x5d328d…
05-16 07:01:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	60	36¢	$22	0x77ad78…
05-16 06:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	50	35¢	$17	0x29970f…
05-16 06:45:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xc0e299…
05-16 06:42:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x0a84e5…
05-16 06:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0x0a8490…
05-16 06:37:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	SELL	70	28¢	$20	0x1e6b2f…
05-16 06:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x1c6329…
05-16 06:33:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	50	37¢	$18	0x279eed…
05-13 19:10:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	25¢	$3	0x4714a5…
05-13 19:09:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x1c5a13…
05-13 19:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	SELL	11	37¢	$4	0xbe6b4f…
05-13 19:05:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x5248c9…
05-13 18:10:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	SELL	11	54¢	$6	0x86e733…
05-13 18:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xd85a5a…
05-13 18:05:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0x9a4367…
05-13 18:04:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xb2a8e7…
05-13 18:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x9d95c2…
05-13 17:59:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x782fc5…
05-13 17:55:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0xd044af…
05-13 17:52:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x5c0b24…
05-13 17:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xe30aca…
05-13 17:45:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$5	0x364f2a…
05-13 17:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xe50130…
05-13 17:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xc7b10d…
05-13 17:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x47061e…
05-13 17:42:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x498263…
05-13 17:41:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc76410…
05-13 17:40:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x1ce0ae…
05-13 17:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x97df6d…
05-13 17:31:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	48¢	$4	0x89a1e7…
05-13 17:29:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x705b8a…
05-13 17:24:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x860051…
05-13 17:22:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x555f7c…
05-13 17:21:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x67e671…
05-13 17:20:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	SELL	10	48¢	$5	0x43b35e…
05-13 17:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xf28257…
05-13 17:18:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x1ead4d…
05-13 17:17:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xb09bab…
05-12 21:17:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	SELL	40	41¢	$16	0x1d262b…
05-12 21:17:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	40	42¢	$17	0x45a3b9…
05-12 21:05:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x1160a8…
05-12 20:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x47cb00…
05-12 20:55:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x1f42fe…
05-12 20:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x283c5c…
05-12 20:51:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xef158b…
05-12 20:48:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	125	7¢	$9	0x11e7b4…
05-12 20:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xba77bc…
05-12 20:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	19	30¢	$6	0xc1a5f4…
05-12 20:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x28146f…
05-12 16:53:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0xe17475…
05-12 16:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0xbfef8d…
05-12 16:48:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xe4794c…
05-12 16:48:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x696c39…
05-12 16:47:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xc3e146…
05-12 16:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	2	51¢	$1	0x72f302…
05-12 16:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xfe4144…
05-12 16:37:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xdabb58…
05-12 16:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xfed003…
05-12 16:36:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6f7857…
05-12 10:45:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x8ce798…
05-12 10:45:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x1f7f7f…
05-12 10:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x280545…
05-12 10:44:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xc35b27…
05-11 19:10:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xfd0700…
05-11 19:07:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6996cf…
05-11 19:06:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x40959e…
05-11 19:05:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2a4bf5…
05-11 18:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb3ac51…
05-11 18:56:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8df8c5…
05-11 18:54:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x918fa3…
05-11 18:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3608e6…
05-11 18:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x8e7150…
05-11 18:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x018091…
05-11 18:46:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x942263…
05-11 18:45:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xb60dd4…
05-11 18:41:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x6a6a55…
05-11 18:40:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	60	49¢	$30	0xfe2afb…
05-11 18:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xb36e55…
05-11 18:31:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x141fdb…
05-11 18:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x3feb99…
05-11 17:55:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	SELL	40	38¢	$15	0xc2e2e7…
05-11 17:55:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0x9eba19…
05-11 17:45:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0xb7ff85…
05-11 17:45:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x6a2724…
05-11 17:44:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	40	43¢	$17	0x692a2c…
05-11 17:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0xed728a…
05-11 17:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x698ab8…
05-11 17:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x3b11f2…
05-11 16:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	39¢	$3	0xbffd8d…
05-11 16:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	11	39¢	$4	0x3f4b52…
05-11 16:55:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x92d51f…
05-11 16:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x079943…
05-11 16:54:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xefaa32…