Idealistic-Forecast — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$249

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

51.4%

Resolved

Trades

164

lifetime

Volume

$1.86K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 05-12 21:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 41% $-249

Politics

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 151 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	8	$146	203	146	+57	Up	$-7	05-12 20:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	7	$145	258	64	+195	Down	+$47	05-12 20:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	4	$137	363	83	+279	Down	+$18	05-12 20:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	6	$137	161	161	+0	Down	+$17	05-12 20:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	4	$129	102	102	+0	Down	+$9	05-12 20:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	5	$122	163	51	+112	Up	$-79	05-12 20:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	3	$62	67	52	+15	Down	$-16	05-12 20:58
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	4	$61	476	476	+0	open	—	05-10 23:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	3	$55	316	0	+316	Down	$-55	05-12 17:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	6	$51	159	24	+135	Down	+$2	05-12 19:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	1	$50	88	0	+88	Up	$-50	05-12 20:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	5	$48	101	19	+82	Up	$-1	05-12 19:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	7	$47	53	27	+26	Down	+$4	05-12 19:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	2	$46	30	30	+0	Up	+$14	05-10 23:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	2	$45	704	0	+704	Down	$-45	05-10 23:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	4	$42	56	13	+43	Up	+$15	05-12 19:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	7	$35	77	77	+0	Up	+$3	05-12 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	3	$35	145	0	+145	Down	$-35	05-12 17:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	6	$32	79	26	+53	Down	$-2	05-12 19:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	2	$30	32	32	+0	Up	+$7	05-10 22:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	1	$29	128	0	+128	Up	$-29	05-10 23:01
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	3	$29	34	34	+0	Up	$-13	05-12 21:09
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	2	$28	17	17	+0	Up	+$7	05-12 21:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	5	$27	67	9	+58	Down	$-16	05-12 18:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	2	$25	39	0	+39	Down	$-2	05-12 20:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	4	$22	92	11	+81	Up	$-8	05-12 18:32
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	5	$22	87	81	+7	Down	$-8	05-12 21:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	4	$22	90	29	+61	Up	$-10	05-12 20:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	3	$20	36	0	+36	Up	+$16	05-12 20:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	2	$20	27	0	+27	Down	$-3	05-12 20:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-12 21:27:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x11105f…
05-12 21:23:47	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0x15048d…
05-12 21:22:30	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x36fb07…
05-12 21:22:16	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x50a91f…
05-12 21:21:39	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x462796…
05-12 21:19:26	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	71	1¢	$1	0x50b467…
05-12 21:16:23	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0x801090…
05-12 21:16:10	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x37d010…
05-12 21:15:55	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	SELL	10	66¢	$6	0x409a9e…
05-12 21:15:09	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xcc5e85…
05-12 21:14:41	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	67¢	$4	0x8e1f69…
05-12 21:13:33	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x7872b3…
05-12 21:13:26	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xa46602…
05-12 21:12:49	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x9e876d…
05-12 21:12:26	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0x1c2405…
05-12 21:11:46	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x90cfff…
05-12 21:09:19	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	SELL	34	22¢	$8	0x7e5993…
05-12 21:06:31	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	28	61¢	$17	0x759eeb…
05-12 21:06:10	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x3c3b90…
05-12 21:05:39	Dogecoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x816cf4…
05-12 21:04:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0x67b133…
05-12 21:02:12	XRP Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	17	62¢	$11	0x4dab56…
05-12 21:01:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x24170f…
05-12 20:58:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0xcdeb6f…
05-12 20:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	52	30¢	$15	0xdbfc1a…
05-12 20:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	52	64¢	$33	0x232f57…
05-12 20:51:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	88	57¢	$50	0xd3bdc7…
05-12 20:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x6fc848…
05-12 20:48:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	113	4¢	$5	0x7b6a80…
05-12 20:48:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	SELL	83	93¢	$77	0xa61886…
05-12 20:46:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x4f29d0…
05-12 20:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x6962f6…
05-12 20:42:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	SELL	51	41¢	$21	0xdf6786…
05-12 20:42:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	79	65¢	$51	0x1add86…
05-12 20:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	32	60¢	$19	0x28b3a5…
05-12 20:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x53da39…
05-12 20:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	41	92¢	$37	0x2bfe7d…
05-12 20:36:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	41	74¢	$30	0x151105…
05-12 20:35:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	SELL	61	52¢	$32	0xc407e4…
05-12 20:35:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	61	49¢	$30	0xf29196…
05-12 20:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	82	2¢	$2	0xbf14b2…
05-12 20:33:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	75	4¢	$3	0xdde4fc…
05-12 20:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	SELL	79	95¢	$75	0x709412…
05-12 20:31:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x2f8d8d…
05-12 20:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xf17292…
05-12 20:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xeea346…
05-12 20:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x9f72f0…
05-12 20:28:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	80	18¢	$14	0x2667cc…
05-12 20:28:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	80	25¢	$20	0xa3793c…
05-12 20:27:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	47	43¢	$20	0x71eafd…
05-12 20:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x91874a…
05-12 20:26:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	19	37¢	$7	0x7de5e6…
05-12 20:26:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x9859ff…
05-12 20:25:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x23f35f…
05-12 20:24:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	135	32¢	$43	0x8d9219…
05-12 20:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xd19d04…
05-12 20:23:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	SELL	64	45¢	$29	0x0db1a4…
05-12 20:23:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	36	42¢	$15	0x31a601…
05-12 20:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	37	72¢	$27	0x187c7b…
05-12 20:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0xa65260…
05-12 20:21:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0x6301c8…
05-12 20:19:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x170ac3…
05-12 20:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	SELL	29	2¢	$1	0x122acc…
05-12 20:17:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0x7c4921…
05-12 20:17:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xfa684b…
05-12 20:13:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x9c678c…
05-12 20:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x1ddabe…
05-12 20:06:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0xaa2fb5…
05-12 20:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x4457c4…
05-12 20:02:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xacf58d…
05-12 20:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xbcae94…
05-12 20:00:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x9db700…
05-12 19:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x8c0f13…
05-12 19:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	13	50¢	$7	0x090050…
05-12 19:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x97fa92…
05-12 19:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x1788ca…
05-12 19:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x58c557…
05-12 19:48:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xfc2ae4…
05-12 19:48:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x353165…
05-12 19:47:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x4e88c5…
05-12 19:47:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	19	38¢	$7	0x93e07a…
05-12 19:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xbda7a9…
05-12 19:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xf8b77a…
05-12 19:43:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	SELL	11	14¢	$2	0x9bf234…
05-12 19:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x19216d…
05-12 19:41:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x8a65b5…
05-12 19:41:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	SELL	12	60¢	$8	0x94f083…
05-12 19:40:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xe46da5…
05-12 19:39:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xd6c010…
05-12 19:36:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0x64566f…
05-12 19:35:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x5126be…
05-12 19:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xa8bb9d…
05-12 19:30:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x285603…
05-12 19:28:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x922de2…
05-12 19:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xf6f7d7…
05-12 19:27:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	SELL	14	61¢	$8	0x77c1ae…
05-12 19:26:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x429b86…
05-12 19:26:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	12	54¢	$7	0x6de8e4…
05-12 19:26:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x78f72a…
05-12 19:24:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x56a387…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	42	$28.9K	963	05-26 12:04
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	42	$5.99K	479	05-12 21:26
(anonymous) 0x38e5…8a4a	42	$4.35K	2,082	05-12 21:29
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	41	$20.0K	3,183	05-12 21:28
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	41	$9.30K	332	05-12 21:29
Alive-Supermarket 0x927f…d215	41	$9.07K	498	05-12 21:25
(anonymous) 0xd901…8e14	41	$8.64K	2,200	05-12 21:28
Agile-Analogy 0x1015…bac8	41	$8.55K	1,448	05-12 21:29