Gregarious-Methodology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$26

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

50.7%

Resolved

Trades

198

lifetime

Volume

$775

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-31

last 05-30 08:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 60% +$26

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 47 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	1	$100	10,000	0	+10,000	Up	$-100	05-13 19:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	1	$57	103	0	+103	Down	$-57	05-13 19:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	4	$40	81	0	+81	open	—	05-13 18:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	3	$30	82	0	+82	Up	+$52	05-13 18:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	3	$30	61	0	+61	Up	+$31	05-13 17:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	3	$30	49	0	+49	open	—	05-13 18:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	2	$20	31	0	+31	Up	+$11	05-13 16:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	2	$20	46	0	+46	Up	+$26	05-13 19:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	2	$20	55	0	+55	Down	$-20	05-13 18:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	2	$20	34	0	+34	Up	+$14	05-13 17:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	2	$20	35	0	+35	Up	+$15	05-13 17:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	2	$20	61	0	+61	Up	+$41	05-13 17:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	2	$20	49	0	+49	Down	$-20	05-13 19:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	2	$15	30	0	+30	Up	+$15	05-13 16:36
btc updown 5m 1775117400	6	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	04-02 08:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Up	+$10	05-13 16:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	1	$10	21	0	+21	Down	$-10	05-13 19:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	1	$10	22	0	+22	Down	$-10	05-13 18:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	1	$10	26	0	+26	open	—	05-13 19:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$10	24	0	+24	Up	+$14	05-13 18:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	1	$10	14	0	+14	Down	$-10	05-13 20:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	1	$10	11	0	+11	Down	+$1	05-12 15:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	3	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	05-29 20:15
btc updown 5m 1774997400	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	03-31 22:54
btc updown 5m 1775112600	3	$6	5	3	+2	open	—	04-02 06:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	2	$6	100	18	+82	Down	$-4	05-13 19:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	Up	+$4	05-13 16:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	2	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$3	05-12 13:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	1	$5	11	0	+11	Down	$-5	05-13 16:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Up	+$3	05-12 13:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-30 08:26:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xa9e26c…
05-30 08:20:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xfa40c6…
05-30 08:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x1e2729…
05-30 08:09:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x2133d0…
05-30 08:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x016dfc…
05-30 08:05:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xebc9e2…
05-29 20:29:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x36a2b0…
05-29 20:26:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x817dea…
05-29 20:25:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xefe8ab…
05-29 20:15:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xfce889…
05-29 20:13:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x18dacb…
05-29 20:10:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x0097c0…
05-29 20:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x05fd7d…
05-29 19:10:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x9c09be…
05-29 19:05:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xa9b3c9…
05-15 10:50:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x7299ce…
05-15 09:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	12	34¢	$4	0x8236a4…
05-15 09:37:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	53¢	$2	0x10b3b0…
05-15 09:33:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xeeae41…
05-15 09:21:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x926f3c…
05-15 09:20:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x050d4a…
05-15 09:15:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc6da40…
05-15 09:13:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	SELL	1	59¢	$1	0x8afea4…
05-15 09:10:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x00cb60…
05-15 09:00:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xfbeb21…
05-13 20:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x534103…
05-13 20:26:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x80ee8a…
05-13 20:20:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x43519b…
05-13 20:02:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x4566b7…
05-13 19:50:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10,000	1¢	$100	0xa67b9e…
05-13 19:42:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Up	BUY	103	55¢	$57	0x002673…
05-13 19:35:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xca0248…
05-13 19:35:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xe2d4b8…
05-13 19:29:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	SELL	18	3¢	$1	0x9968fb…
05-13 19:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xb87596…
05-13 19:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	35	28¢	$10	0xca9a09…
05-13 19:21:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x08e272…
05-13 19:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xae2b15…
05-13 19:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x1ad02a…
05-13 18:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xd011ff…
05-13 18:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x95a596…
05-13 18:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0x0438d8…
05-13 18:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xc99256…
05-13 18:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0xb144b0…
05-13 18:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xb6f6a9…
05-13 18:25:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x5ddb69…
05-13 18:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x290da9…
05-13 18:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xd0a5dd…
05-13 18:17:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x0d73f4…
05-13 18:17:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xdd6cbf…
05-13 18:13:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x50e281…
05-13 18:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xb36323…
05-13 18:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x3ab441…
05-13 17:56:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xac0186…
05-13 17:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xc28be9…
05-13 17:56:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x3b9e7e…
05-13 17:54:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xb8a285…
05-13 17:54:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xa6a503…
05-13 17:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	47	21¢	$10	0xa485b6…
05-13 17:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x862c12…
05-13 17:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xf79437…
05-13 17:40:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x4d1ab9…
05-13 16:46:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xe2dfd0…
05-13 16:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x3e7688…
05-13 16:36:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	17	57¢	$10	0x06ca7c…
05-13 16:31:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x4922e5…
05-13 16:27:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x6579ac…
05-13 16:26:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xf6190f…
05-13 16:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd7eb21…
05-13 16:15:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xe1fd90…
05-13 16:05:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x1e89cb…
05-13 15:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x61c5ba…
05-12 15:10:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xf614ef…
05-12 15:04:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0xa466dd…
05-12 14:50:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x2d56ba…
05-12 14:22:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$2	0xc94d32…
05-12 14:21:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x761a34…
05-12 14:16:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x5c2b30…
05-12 14:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x28bd66…
05-12 14:05:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc3bd64…
05-12 14:00:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xf4a62b…
05-12 13:50:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x8b0b3a…
05-12 13:48:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	93¢	$4	0x64ffbc…
05-12 13:46:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb88e3e…
05-12 13:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xbc532b…
05-12 13:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0xe43709…
05-12 13:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd46306…
05-12 13:02:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xe5e689…
05-12 12:57:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x65c05a…
05-12 12:06:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x422370…
05-12 12:05:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x2ee15e…
05-12 12:00:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x5083d9…
04-02 08:30:33	btc updown 5m 1775118600	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0xf36cf7…
04-02 08:27:55	btc updown 5m 1775118300	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x015e63…
04-02 08:21:01	btc updown 5m 1775118000	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xd2442e…
04-02 08:16:47	btc updown 5m 1775117700	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x875da2…
04-02 08:15:15	btc updown 5m 1775117400	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x078154…
04-02 08:12:07	btc updown 5m 1775117400	Down	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x62abdb…
04-02 08:11:35	btc updown 5m 1775117400	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x4729f4…
04-02 08:11:19	btc updown 5m 1775117400	Up	SELL	4	35¢	$1	0x4b98e9…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Alive-Supermarket 0x927f…d215	114	$22.9K	1,648	05-30 08:28
Responsible-Carboxyl 0x72ab…e1ee	113	$5.22K	778	05-30 08:30
(anonymous) 0x89b5…8beb	112	$71.1K	4,623	05-30 08:28
Nice-Trapdoor 0xc1b4…624f	112	$10.2K	4,839	05-30 08:29
(anonymous) 0x8b64…b5fc	111	$48.9K	8,716	05-30 08:27
Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08	111	$10.2K	2,178	05-30 08:28
Silly-Briefly 0x3f2f…8150	111	$4.05K	666	05-30 08:29
(anonymous) 0xdaa9…e31d	111	$1.37K	210	05-30 08:25