Improbable-Violence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$105

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

50.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$12.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$369

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 05-31 23:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Other

50% 25% $-73

Sports

37% 33% $-3

Politics

13% 50% +$1

Crypto

1% 38% $-30

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	6	$3.1K	1,589	1,589	+0	No	+$1	03-16 13:07
Will Brighton finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	2	$1.7K	832	832	+0	No	+$1	03-17 00:25
will zelenskyy talk to putin by march 31	3	$1.6K	830	830	+0	No	+$1	03-16 15:28
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	3	$1.6K	821	821	+0	No	$-1	03-15 14:36
over 200m hyperliquid buybacks in q1	2	$1.6K	827	827	+0	No	$-3	03-16 14:50
Will Fulham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	3	$1.5K	778	778	+0	No	$-2	03-16 13:59
nba 2025 26 bpg leader donovan clingan	2	$1.5K	761	761	+0	No	$-2	03-15 15:23
itsb spe emp 2026 03 17 btts	2	$70	143	0	+143	Yes	$-70	03-17 02:38
xrp up or down february 26 6pm et	2	$16	31	0	+31	Up	$-16	02-26 17:16
solana up or down february 28 11pm et	1	$14	28	0	+28	Down	$-14	02-28 19:02
solana up or down february 24 8pm et	1	$9	17	0	+17	Up	+$9	02-24 17:09
sol updown 4h 1772053200	1	$9	17	0	+17	Down	$-9	02-25 20:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	2	$8	4	4	+0	No	+$0	05-31 23:55
xrp updown 4h 1772240400	2	$8	15	0	+15	Down	$-8	02-28 00:21
xrp up or down march 1 9pm et	1	$8	15	0	+15	Down	+$8	03-01 19:02
ethereum up or down february 10 8am et	1	$6	12	0	+12	Up	$-6	02-10 07:42
xrp up or down february 24 2am et	1	$6	11	0	+11	Down	+$6	02-23 22:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-31 23:55:15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0x81c093…
05-30 09:45:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xeccca7…
03-17 02:38:21	itsb spe emp 2026 03 17 btts	No	BUY	140	49¢	$69	0x6a842d…
03-17 02:38:17	itsb spe emp 2026 03 17 btts	No	BUY	3	49¢	$2	0x550e4c…
03-17 00:25:57	Will Brighton finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	No	SELL	832	99¢	$827	0x596ff7…
03-17 00:20:53	Will Brighton finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	No	BUY	832	99¢	$826	0x1673a2…
03-16 15:28:57	will zelenskyy talk to putin by march 31	No	SELL	796	99¢	$786	0xa47bd5…
03-16 15:28:55	will zelenskyy talk to putin by march 31	No	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x71b3f5…
03-16 15:22:55	will zelenskyy talk to putin by march 31	No	BUY	830	99¢	$819	0xc27f8d…
03-16 14:50:19	over 200m hyperliquid buybacks in q1	No	SELL	827	98¢	$811	0x1f00c9…
03-16 14:46:23	over 200m hyperliquid buybacks in q1	No	BUY	827	98¢	$814	0x2bc298…
03-16 13:59:35	Will Fulham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xc1f154…
03-16 13:59:33	Will Fulham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	No	SELL	771	99¢	$765	0xac704a…
03-16 13:55:35	Will Fulham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	No	BUY	778	99¢	$773	0xbc3aa5…
03-16 13:07:39	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	No	SELL	760	99¢	$751	0x1e5399…
03-16 13:07:37	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	No	SELL	33	99¢	$32	0x9e5f23…
03-16 13:03:35	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	No	BUY	793	99¢	$785	0x518ca5…
03-16 12:09:33	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	No	SELL	765	99¢	$756	0x7be872…
03-16 12:09:31	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	No	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0x10e328…
03-16 12:05:11	will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	No	BUY	795	99¢	$785	0x9672a7…
03-15 15:23:49	nba 2025 26 bpg leader donovan clingan	No	SELL	761	100¢	$758	0x3d87aa…
03-15 15:12:45	nba 2025 26 bpg leader donovan clingan	No	BUY	761	100¢	$761	0x1db602…
03-15 14:36:51	Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	803	99¢	$796	0xbf404c…
03-15 14:36:49	Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x2bd384…
03-15 14:32:47	Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?	No	BUY	821	99¢	$816	0xe86762…
03-01 19:02:07	xrp up or down march 1 9pm et	Down	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x3bdd18…
02-28 19:02:15	solana up or down february 28 11pm et	Up	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x1e89c4…
02-28 00:21:07	xrp updown 4h 1772240400	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x1a3944…
02-28 00:21:05	xrp updown 4h 1772240400	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0x5f9ca3…
02-26 17:16:38	xrp up or down february 26 6pm et	Down	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x9c768a…
02-26 17:16:36	xrp up or down february 26 6pm et	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x720099…
02-25 20:07:26	sol updown 4h 1772053200	Up	BUY	17	50¢	$9	0x93d143…
02-24 17:09:56	solana up or down february 24 8pm et	Up	BUY	17	50¢	$9	0x1b9a7a…
02-23 22:16:20	xrp up or down february 24 2am et	Down	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0xa0681d…
02-10 07:42:01	ethereum up or down february 10 8am et	Down	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xd1fc68…