Miserly-Likelihood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$30

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 05-10 04:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

46% — —

Sports

41% 100% +$5

Politics

13% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	2	$7	6	6	+0	Sean Strickland	+$5	05-10 04:48
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 27?	3	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	04-27 21:37
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	2	$2	145	0	+145	open	—	04-25 05:16
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 28?	2	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	04-27 21:45
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	2	$2	2	2	+0	Yes	$-0	04-26 12:23
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 28?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-27 22:00
Cavaliers vs. Raptors	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	04-25 05:25
Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?	1	$1	109	0	+109	open	—	04-29 00:19
Lakers vs. Rockets	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	04-24 11:07
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims)	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	04-25 05:24
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 27?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	04-26 12:19
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	04-29 00:22
Penguins vs. Flyers	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	04-25 05:23
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 28?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	04-27 21:46
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 28?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	04-27 21:32
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 29?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	04-27 21:33
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on April 27?	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	04-26 12:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-10 04:48:49	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x7fe573…
05-10 04:12:34	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb10c12…
04-29 00:22:12	Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?	No	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x82c588…
04-29 00:19:36	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by April 30?	Yes	BUY	109	1¢	$1	0x728d64…
04-27 22:00:48	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 28?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0x918a2a…
04-27 21:46:44	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 28?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x0f40c2…
04-27 21:45:44	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 28?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xef222f…
04-27 21:37:04	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 27?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xd5d0e6…
04-27 21:33:58	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on April 28?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd7d1fb…
04-27 21:33:26	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 29?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x8debeb…
04-27 21:32:34	Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 28?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x74a44d…
04-27 02:20:52	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 27?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x2915b1…
04-26 12:24:00	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on April 27?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$1	0x677e64…
04-26 12:23:08	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x681536…
04-26 12:20:26	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on April 27?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xa72ceb…
04-26 12:19:30	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 27?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xc3fc4e…
04-26 09:21:08	Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xa992de…
04-25 05:25:26	Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Raptors	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x09f08b…
04-25 05:24:22	UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims)	Ryan Spann	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xd53cbe…
04-25 05:23:46	Penguins vs. Flyers	Flyers	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x397356…
04-25 05:16:10	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xcee43b…
04-24 11:07:32	Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xaa2019…
04-24 10:57:12	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x01a258…