Probable-Banking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

61.1%

Resolved

Trades

557

lifetime

Volume

$4.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 05-21 18:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 80% $-29

Other

2% 100% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 111 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	2	$92	60	60	+0	Up	$-7	05-07 08:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	2	$61	31	31	+0	open	—	04-27 21:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	4	$61	61	31	+30	open	—	04-27 16:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	2	$60	32	32	+0	open	—	04-26 09:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	2	$60	31	31	+0	open	—	04-29 09:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	6	$60	45	30	+15	open	—	04-29 10:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	3	$60	62	32	+30	open	—	04-27 16:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$59	31	31	+0	open	—	04-27 21:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	4	$57	84	0	+84	Down	$-23	05-07 10:18
btc updown 5m 1776986100	4	$56	49	33	+15	open	—	04-23 23:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	2	$55	33	32	+0	open	—	04-27 11:30
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	2	$55	37	37	+0	open	—	05-15 10:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	3	$55	145	0	+145	Down	$-5	05-07 09:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$52	50	50	+0	open	—	05-21 18:15
btc updown 5m 1776865800	2	$51	77	0	+77	open	—	04-22 13:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	3	$51	51	51	+0	open	—	05-21 18:00
btc updown 5m 1777047600	4	$50	48	33	+16	open	—	04-24 16:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	5	$50	49	32	+17	open	—	04-24 21:34
btc updown 5m 1776862800	1	$49	53	0	+53	open	—	04-22 13:04
btc updown 5m 1776861600	1	$49	51	0	+51	open	—	04-22 12:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	7	$48	51	51	+0	open	—	05-21 17:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	3	$46	52	0	+52	Down	+$1	05-07 09:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$46	57	0	+57	Up	+$6	05-07 09:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	2	$46	55	0	+55	Down	+$4	05-07 09:52
btc updown 5m 1777039500	9	$45	70	37	+33	open	—	04-24 14:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	2	$43	32	32	+0	open	—	04-27 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	4	$41	31	21	+10	open	—	04-29 17:29
btc updown 5m 1777038900	3	$40	54	37	+17	open	—	04-24 13:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	4	$40	30	20	+10	open	—	04-29 18:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET	2	$37	21	21	+0	open	—	04-29 20:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 18:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	SELL	49	22¢	$11	0x29a6b1…
05-21 18:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x98f68f…
05-21 18:15:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	SELL	50	53¢	$26	0x5b9440…
05-21 18:14:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x8be789…
05-21 18:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	45	52¢	$23	0x949778…
05-21 18:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	SELL	6	52¢	$3	0x4c65fc…
05-21 17:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	51	48¢	$24	0xd7022a…
05-21 17:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0xdb6257…
05-21 17:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xabfaaa…
05-21 17:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	25	49¢	$12	0x39fde1…
05-21 17:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x2986c8…
05-21 17:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	49¢	$3	0x0ee331…
05-21 17:20:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	SELL	9	49¢	$4	0x020a1f…
05-21 17:18:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	51	45¢	$23	0x9c4c42…
05-15 10:53:19	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	SELL	37	66¢	$24	0x909291…
05-15 08:57:49	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?	Up	BUY	37	83¢	$31	0xb3a732…
05-12 12:48:33	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	31	95¢	$30	0xa1de09…
05-08 12:02:50	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?	Down	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0xa9f04d…
05-07 21:11:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0xc5f612…
05-07 21:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0xa7a12c…
05-07 20:56:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x7ea73c…
05-07 20:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x6a5d8b…
05-07 20:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x600de2…
05-07 20:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x58e00b…
05-07 20:45:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x395482…
05-07 20:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x082b1e…
05-07 20:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	9	48¢	$5	0x8fbf1c…
05-07 20:41:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0x3ba715…
05-07 20:40:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x95544e…
05-07 20:35:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x308a75…
05-07 20:33:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xa7e32d…
05-07 20:33:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x3c1639…
05-07 20:31:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0xd34303…
05-07 20:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x847424…
05-07 20:30:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x2da943…
05-07 20:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0xf9191c…
05-07 20:25:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xd2ef04…
05-07 17:05:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x34dffc…
05-07 17:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xaa5cf8…
05-07 17:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x87e118…
05-07 16:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x705373…
05-07 16:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x1fec89…
05-07 16:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	1	48¢	$1	0x3eabb0…
05-07 16:50:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xb4521a…
05-07 16:49:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xe2036f…
05-07 16:45:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x177944…
05-07 16:42:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x623187…
05-07 16:40:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xf5f9d5…
05-07 16:40:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x02faf7…
05-07 16:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xcb25e7…
05-07 16:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x9249d2…
05-07 16:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x758760…
05-07 16:35:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	1	48¢	$1	0x03fe16…
05-07 16:30:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0x6d09ba…
05-07 16:30:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x46a665…
05-07 16:30:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	0	48¢	$0	0x3438d6…
05-07 16:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$2	0xd21099…
05-07 16:30:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x73d9c8…
05-07 16:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x589826…
05-07 16:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xa1cbe8…
05-07 16:23:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x15bb22…
05-07 16:22:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x14fc4d…
05-07 16:17:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x4770c6…
05-07 16:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x824a2a…
05-07 16:14:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x25bf43…
05-07 16:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb14f78…
05-07 16:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x66fbfa…
05-07 16:07:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x84f22d…
05-07 16:05:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xdba54c…
05-07 16:04:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xcf2e5d…
05-07 15:59:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x2d0781…
05-07 15:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xe8ad8e…
05-07 15:55:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x36a3fe…
05-07 15:55:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xe50321…
05-07 15:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xd3d174…
05-07 15:50:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x4f4ebe…
05-07 15:45:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x75c583…
05-07 15:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x26b10c…
05-07 15:40:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xefd034…
05-07 15:39:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x98f56d…
05-07 15:35:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0xc8e256…
05-07 15:35:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xb89328…
05-07 15:34:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x4eaca0…
05-07 15:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x766a9c…
05-07 15:30:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x7bd3c5…
05-07 15:26:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xb39597…
05-07 15:23:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x0ca2a1…
05-07 15:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x3ef118…
05-07 15:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	48¢	$1	0xbcfdf3…
05-07 15:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x64698e…
05-07 15:15:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x9ada47…
05-07 15:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x9fd0d3…
05-07 15:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x92b2b8…
05-07 15:09:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xab66b5…
05-07 15:05:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xf9240c…
05-07 15:04:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x03e08a…
05-07 11:40:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x70f25d…
05-07 11:40:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x546292…
05-07 10:18:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0xa280d3…
05-07 10:18:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x47088b…