Unlucky-Entry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

32.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$12.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$145

Open exposure

$69

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 07-08 03:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

81% 100% +$5

Crypto

14% — —

Politics

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	+24	$22	89¢	$21	$-1	07-08 03:13
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	+22	$20	92¢	$20	$-0	07-08 03:12
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	-20	$-17	89¢	$-18	$-1	07-08 03:11
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	+10	$10	95¢	$10	$-0	07-08 03:13

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	6	$9.9K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	03-05 06:23
eth updown 15m 1775536200	1	$805	806	0	+806	open	—	04-07 04:43
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	28	$402	527	527	+0	open	—	03-05 06:18
sol updown 15m 1775532600	1	$300	300	0	+300	open	—	04-07 03:44
eth updown 15m 1775534400	1	$159	161	0	+161	open	—	04-07 04:12
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	11	$124	103	122	-19	open	—	05-22 02:47
eth updown 15m 1775533500	1	$120	125	0	+125	open	—	04-07 03:59
xrp updown 15m 1775531700	1	$100	101	0	+101	open	—	04-07 03:29
sol updown 15m 1775470500	1	$73	75	0	+75	open	—	04-06 10:29
sol updown 15m 1775469600	1	$72	73	0	+73	open	—	04-06 10:13
eth updown 15m 1775468700	1	$69	73	0	+73	open	—	04-06 09:59
spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	4	$63	45	45	+0	open	—	04-07 03:28
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$37	23	23	+0	No	$-2	04-06 09:54
mlb lad tor 2026 04 07 total 7pt5	3	$26	33	23	+10	open	—	04-07 02:47
will ethereum reach 4400 in january 2026	2	$24	12	12	+0	open	—	01-27 00:39
GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$22	24	0	+24	open	—	07-08 03:13
gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	1	$20	25	0	+25	open	—	03-05 09:57
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	07-08 03:12
tsla close above 390 on march 5 2026	1	$20	21	0	+21	open	—	03-05 11:54
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$18	23	0	+23	No	+$5	03-05 07:12
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$17	0	20	-20	open	—	07-08 03:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	1	$13	15	0	+15	open	—	05-22 22:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	1	$13	15	0	+15	open	—	05-22 12:55
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	1	$12	13	0	+13	open	—	01-27 00:39
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	07-08 03:12
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	1	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	07-08 03:13
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	07-08 03:12
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by january 31	1	$7	8	0	+8	open	—	01-13 11:27
Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	03-05 04:53
will polymarket mindshare hit 90	2	$7	4	4	+0	open	—	03-05 04:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 03:13:47	GRVT FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0xf45566…
07-08 03:13:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x54e462…
07-08 03:12:55	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x47ef2f…
07-08 03:12:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	No	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x10b414…
07-08 03:12:26	Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xa01073…
07-08 03:11:49	Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x9b6cc9…
05-22 22:43:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	15	88¢	$13	0xc4cc3c…
05-22 12:55:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x408fb0…
05-22 02:47:01	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	16	43¢	$7	0x71b5eb…
05-22 02:30:48	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	22	53¢	$12	0x10341a…
05-22 02:25:17	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x8ce879…
05-22 02:24:58	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x300ef7…
05-22 02:17:18	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xb35b6a…
05-22 02:09:30	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	22	61¢	$13	0xdb4048…
05-22 02:02:44	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x122cc0…
05-22 01:58:13	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xba33e1…
05-22 01:53:09	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	22	62¢	$14	0xe32441…
05-22 01:46:10	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x889bbc…
05-22 00:54:15	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	SELL	40	59¢	$24	0x607315…
04-07 04:43:29	eth updown 15m 1775536200	Up	BUY	806	100¢	$805	0xd2a8cb…
04-07 04:12:43	eth updown 15m 1775534400	Down	BUY	161	99¢	$159	0x1682c1…
04-07 03:59:23	eth updown 15m 1775533500	Down	BUY	125	96¢	$120	0xf46361…
04-07 03:44:51	sol updown 15m 1775532600	Down	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xf7a9f0…
04-07 03:29:33	xrp updown 15m 1775531700	Up	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x77d2de…
04-07 03:28:33	spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	Down	SELL	45	71¢	$32	0x0f0480…
04-07 03:26:57	spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	Down	BUY	34	71¢	$24	0x7eb2d3…
04-07 03:25:31	spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	Down	BUY	8	71¢	$5	0x37dbbc…
04-07 03:16:47	spx opens up or down on april 7 2026	Down	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xd01b67…
04-07 02:47:09	mlb lad tor 2026 04 07 total 7pt5	Under	SELL	23	46¢	$10	0x86417d…
04-07 02:07:03	mlb lad tor 2026 04 07 total 7pt5	Over	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x420137…
04-07 02:04:19	mlb lad tor 2026 04 07 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	28	48¢	$13	0xb8af45…
04-06 10:29:57	sol updown 15m 1775470500	Up	BUY	75	98¢	$73	0x73331e…
04-06 10:13:13	sol updown 15m 1775469600	Up	BUY	73	99¢	$72	0x05996a…
04-06 09:59:23	eth updown 15m 1775468700	Down	BUY	73	95¢	$69	0x7a0909…
04-06 09:54:19	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	23	77¢	$18	0xc6aeb6…
03-07 08:38:31	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	23	84¢	$19	0x872fcf…
03-05 11:54:07	tsla close above 390 on march 5 2026	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x2c7a05…
03-05 09:57:43	gpt 5pt4 released by march 5	Yes	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x41e10e…
03-05 07:12:13	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	23	79¢	$18	0x2a3e30…
03-05 06:23:33	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	2,376	99¢	$2,345	0xd286cf…
03-05 06:23:11	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	871	99¢	$860	0x045ea2…
03-05 06:22:47	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0xd081aa…
03-05 06:22:15	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	120	99¢	$118	0x1977fb…
03-05 06:22:03	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	1,600	99¢	$1,579	0x878cf4…
03-05 06:21:13	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	5,000	99¢	$4,940	0x6961c2…
03-05 06:18:43	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	113	38¢	$43	0x6c55a8…
03-05 06:18:29	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	18	38¢	$7	0xfb2211…
03-05 06:18:17	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	15	38¢	$6	0xc252d0…
03-05 06:14:05	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	12	38¢	$5	0xb1d640…
03-05 06:13:53	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	24	38¢	$9	0xd31cf8…
03-05 06:13:41	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	45	38¢	$17	0x020a65…
03-05 06:13:35	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	16	38¢	$6	0x2c0f2a…
03-05 06:13:23	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	18	38¢	$7	0x299e36…
03-05 06:12:15	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	17	38¢	$7	0x5c6d4e…
03-05 06:12:03	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	12	38¢	$5	0x9f68b2…
03-05 06:11:51	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	9	38¢	$3	0xeea698…
03-05 06:11:49	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	10	38¢	$4	0x33e40e…
03-05 06:09:53	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x73807e…
03-05 06:08:55	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	73	38¢	$28	0x2799c1…
03-05 06:08:13	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	16	38¢	$6	0x5c5bc4…
03-05 06:06:39	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	70	38¢	$27	0x43eafb…
03-05 06:05:45	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	38	39¢	$15	0xe458c5…
03-05 06:05:39	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	35	39¢	$14	0x7d43d1…
03-05 06:02:29	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	210	39¢	$81	0xc3a292…
03-05 05:05:33	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	99	37¢	$37	0x6a8b93…
03-05 05:05:17	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	12	37¢	$5	0x2f03fa…
03-05 05:02:03	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	13	37¢	$5	0xe2defe…
03-05 05:00:57	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	1	37¢	$0	0x650b01…
03-05 05:00:45	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x58c341…
03-05 04:58:45	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	120	38¢	$45	0xda0495…
03-05 04:57:49	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	SELL	4	38¢	$2	0xa12230…
03-05 04:56:51	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x524946…
03-05 04:55:03	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x4413f7…
03-05 04:53:27	will polymarket mindshare hit 90	No	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0x806516…
03-05 04:53:19	Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$3	0x9720ce…
01-27 00:39:33	will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	No	BUY	13	98¢	$12	0x94784d…
01-27 00:39:17	will ethereum reach 4400 in january 2026	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x2ccd39…
01-27 00:38:43	will silver si hit high 140 by end of january 438 122 492	No	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0x474132…
01-13 11:27:49	will russia capture all of pokrovsk by january 31	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xe3be47…
01-13 11:27:31	will polymarket mindshare hit 90	No	BUY	4	91¢	$3	0x29e34f…
01-13 11:27:13	Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$3	0xbefd83…
01-13 11:26:55	will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x77ddd9…
01-13 11:26:23	will ethereum reach 4400 in january 2026	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xee0225…
01-13 11:26:05	msft above 530 on january 16 2026	No	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0xfa5388…
01-13 11:25:47	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	Yes	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0x2d8415…
01-13 11:25:35	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x92e3f1…