Warm-Fortune — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

39.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$324

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 05-22 18:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Sports

58% 50% +$11

Crypto

40% 44% $-19

Politics

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	3	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	05-02 14:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	2	$20	33	0	+33	open	—	05-16 15:28
UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelims)	3	$16	14	10	+4	open	—	05-02 14:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	4	$12	56	0	+56	Down	$-12	05-11 13:48
ufc riz jai3 2026 02 07	1	$10	25	0	+25	open	—	02-07 13:04
ufc nik2 mod 2026 01 24	1	$10	18	0	+18	open	—	01-24 15:39
ufc raf mau4 2026 01 31	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	01-31 12:05
ufc dan6 ben8 2026 01 31	1	$10	38	0	+38	open	—	01-31 10:21
ufc arn jea 2026 01 24	2	$10	30	0	+30	open	—	01-23 18:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	3	$9	19	0	+19	Up	$-9	05-10 14:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	3	$9	16	0	+16	Up	$-9	05-09 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	3	$9	16	0	+16	Up	+$7	05-09 16:44
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	2	$8	20	0	+20	Sean Brady	$-8	05-09 12:58
ufc mov ler 2026 03 21	1	$6	19	0	+19	open	—	03-21 15:51
ufc pat3 aar8 2026 04 11	1	$6	19	0	+19	open	—	04-11 15:59
ufc cas1 gab5 2026 03 28	1	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	03-26 17:07
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	2	$6	66	0	+66	open	—	05-22 18:13
ufc cur1 jos52 2026 04 11	1	$6	12	0	+12	open	—	04-11 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	2	$6	14	0	+14	Down	$-6	05-09 19:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	2	$6	14	0	+14	Down	+$8	05-09 16:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	2	$6	11	0	+11	Down	$-6	05-11 17:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	2	$6	11	0	+11	Up	+$5	05-09 17:01
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	1	$5	12	0	+12	Joshua Van	+$8	05-08 08:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-16 13:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	05-02 17:04
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	05-16 15:37
ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21	1	$5	16	0	+16	open	—	02-21 19:26
ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	03-07 12:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-16 12:56
ufc rei1 cai2 2026 03 07	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	03-07 17:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-22 18:13:14	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0xdf3030…
05-22 16:29:38	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x8cf43a…
05-16 15:37:23	UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)	Melquizael Costa	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x93f515…
05-16 15:28:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x5ad409…
05-16 15:27:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x4c25ed…
05-16 13:07:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x7f5b0d…
05-16 13:01:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xfa125c…
05-16 12:56:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x2d6f2f…
05-16 12:51:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0x3aac3e…
05-14 13:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x3280b4…
05-11 17:47:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x42e6da…
05-11 17:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x11141d…
05-11 13:48:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xddbabc…
05-11 13:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x560fe5…
05-11 13:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x844c5c…
05-11 13:46:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xd1a158…
05-10 14:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0xc75bed…
05-10 14:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x3fe748…
05-10 14:58:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x69f1ae…
05-10 14:24:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xbf8ab3…
05-09 19:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x77c809…
05-09 19:02:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xedc14c…
05-09 18:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x6c8e73…
05-09 18:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0xe03d1c…
05-09 18:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0xfa517a…
05-09 18:14:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xf5fffa…
05-09 18:14:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x4d67ce…
05-09 18:13:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xbb39c9…
05-09 17:01:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xb03b82…
05-09 17:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xf1c883…
05-09 16:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x862658…
05-09 16:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0xec2963…
05-09 16:44:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xec213b…
05-09 16:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x09f0f3…
05-09 16:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x27c8c1…
05-09 15:42:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0xeb99e3…
05-09 14:18:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x645455…
05-09 14:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x884a5c…
05-09 13:57:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x1d796c…
05-09 12:58:53	UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Joaquin Buckley	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x06377b…
05-08 08:31:08	UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)	Joaquin Buckley	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xfc80f9…
05-08 08:30:19	UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	Joel Álvarez	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xc7890e…
05-08 08:22:27	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Sean Strickland	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xdba2ef…
05-08 08:15:07	UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)	Joshua Van	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x58ba8b…
05-02 17:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x93a623…
05-02 14:37:16	UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelims)	Brando Pericic	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x1398e3…
05-02 14:37:04	UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Carlos Prates	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x18961b…
05-02 13:45:14	UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Carlos Prates	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x9fc027…
05-02 12:01:12	UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelims)	Shamil Gaziev	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x33abb0…
05-02 11:39:24	UFC Fight Night: Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight, Main Card)	Beneil Dariush	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x844930…
05-02 11:32:52	UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelims)	Brando Pericic	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x772196…
05-02 11:28:52	UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Carlos Prates	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9311b7…
04-11 15:59:15	ufc pat3 aar8 2026 04 11	Patricio Pitbull	BUY	19	31¢	$6	0xd42cd7…
04-11 15:24:51	ufc cur1 jos52 2026 04 11	Josh Hokit	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0xde9223…
03-27 09:43:45	ufc ign tof 2026 03 28	Tofiq Musayev	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x05b3bf…
03-27 09:06:55	ufc isr joe8 2026 03 28	Joe Pyfer	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x80890e…
03-26 17:07:19	ufc cas1 gab5 2026 03 28	Gabriella Fernandes	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x9de393…
03-21 18:15:03	ufc ant6 man18 2026 03 21	Antonio Trocoli	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x93b2fd…
03-21 16:43:17	ufc mas axe 2026 03 21	Axel Sola	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x4e313c…
03-21 15:51:43	ufc mov ler 2026 03 21	Lerone Murphy	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0x1ae158…
03-07 17:17:13	ufc rei1 cai2 2026 03 07	Reinier de Ridder	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x147866…
03-07 12:42:53	ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07	Charles Oliveira	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xdff632…
02-21 19:26:06	ufc sea2 ant 2026 02 21	Strickland	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x67e010…
02-07 13:04:45	ufc riz jai3 2026 02 07	Kuniev	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x070c1b…
01-31 12:05:18	ufc raf mau4 2026 01 31	Fiziev	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x1264f8…
01-31 10:21:02	ufc dan6 ben8 2026 01 31	Hooker	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x9d27b6…
01-24 15:39:38	ufc nik2 mod 2026 01 24	Bukauskas	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x6b0e07…
01-23 18:39:52	ufc arn jea 2026 01 24	Allen	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x41c815…
01-23 18:28:50	ufc ros1 nat7 2026 01 24	Namajunas	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x58aca7…
01-23 18:25:36	ufc der wal2 2026 01 24	Lewis	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x63ad54…
01-23 18:23:08	ufc arn jea 2026 01 24	Allen	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xd22d35…