Large-Fear — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$35.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$580

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 06-04 03:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

49% 100% +$6

Politics

48% 100% +$1

Crypto

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	1	$1.3K	1,318	+1,318	open	—	06-04 03:33
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	1	$1.3K	1,314	+1,314	open	—	06-02 18:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$1.3K	1,304	+1,304	open	—	06-01 18:54
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	5	$1.3K	1,303	+1,303	open	—	05-20 22:53
Will Trump visit China by May 8?	2	$1.3K	1,273	+1,273	No	+$1	05-05 21:53
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	1	$1.3K	1,271	+1,271	Yes	+$3	05-03 01:00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	1	$1.3K	1,269	+1,269	open	—	04-25 03:05
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	1	$1.3K	1,260	+1,260	open	—	04-21 19:52
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	1	$1.3K	1,259	+1,259	open	—	04-17 16:15
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?	1	$1.3K	1,258	+1,258	open	—	04-14 19:38
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$1.3K	1,257	+1,257	open	—	04-09 03:48
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	1	$1.3K	1,254	+1,254	open	—	04-07 04:24
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	1	$1.2K	1,250	+1,250	open	—	04-02 06:22
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	7	$1.2K	1,248	+1,248	open	—	03-20 05:38
will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	1	$1.2K	1,240	+1,240	open	—	03-18 21:52
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$1.2K	1,237	+1,237	open	—	03-14 05:28
will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	1	$1.2K	1,232	+1,232	open	—	03-12 04:39
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	1	$1.2K	1,231	+1,231	open	—	03-09 15:47
will khamenei tweet again by march 5	17	$1.2K	1,218	+1,218	open	—	03-06 07:19
will trump say waste this week march 1	1	$1.2K	1,202	+1,202	open	—	03-04 22:42
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$1.2K	1,199	+1,199	open	—	02-06 06:12
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	1	$1.1K	1,162	+1,162	open	—	02-02 23:01
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	1	$1.1K	1,145	+1,145	open	—	01-29 22:22
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$1.1K	1,140	+1,140	open	—	01-27 20:55
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	1	$1.1K	1,111	+1,111	open	—	05-19 04:32
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	1	$1.1K	1,110	+1,110	open	—	05-16 22:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$1.1K	1,108	+1,108	open	—	05-15 18:55
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	1	$1.1K	1,107	+1,107	open	—	05-14 07:38
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$1.1K	1,101	+1,101	No	+$3	05-11 05:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	4	$175	177	+177	open	—	05-10 21:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 03:33:33	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1,318	100¢	$1,315	0x03afb2…
06-02 18:35:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,314	99¢	$1,304	0x20e76d…
06-01 18:54:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	1,304	100¢	$1,303	0xbd21e7…
05-20 22:53:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	180	99¢	$177	0xdcc5f0…
05-20 19:40:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	136	99¢	$134	0x087a90…
05-20 19:25:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	182	99¢	$180	0xaaace2…
05-20 19:07:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x17aa6b…
05-20 18:38:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	805	99¢	$796	0x562488…
05-19 04:32:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	1,111	100¢	$1,110	0x6b7530…
05-16 22:22:13	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,110	100¢	$1,108	0xa3dabc…
05-15 18:55:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	1,108	100¢	$1,107	0x3325b8…
05-14 07:38:24	Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?	No	BUY	1,107	100¢	$1,101	0x106809…
05-11 05:55:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	1,101	100¢	$1,098	0xc29079…
05-10 21:32:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	84	99¢	$83	0xf4e535…
05-10 21:32:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf20ba5…
05-10 21:32:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x94ac22…
05-10 21:32:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0x73629e…
05-05 21:53:48	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	BUY	554	100¢	$554	0x743820…
05-05 20:47:10	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	BUY	719	100¢	$718	0x4e261e…
05-03 01:00:20	Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,271	100¢	$1,269	0xa7d3e0…
04-25 03:05:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	No	BUY	1,269	99¢	$1,260	0x3d7e50…
04-21 19:52:40	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,260	100¢	$1,259	0x3c538c…
04-17 16:15:54	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	Yes	BUY	1,259	100¢	$1,258	0xc7523a…
04-14 19:38:24	Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,258	100¢	$1,257	0xe4f30d…
04-09 03:48:43	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	Yes	BUY	1,257	100¢	$1,254	0x41cb2a…
04-07 04:24:33	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,254	100¢	$1,250	0x1f2442…
04-02 06:22:37	will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	No	BUY	1,250	100¢	$1,248	0xb0cf0e…
03-20 05:38:01	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	770	99¢	$765	0x15f98f…
03-20 05:37:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xd59c90…
03-20 05:37:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0xdfecf4…
03-20 05:36:57	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x3b9254…
03-20 05:36:45	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	49	99¢	$49	0x7f82cd…
03-20 05:36:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	327	99¢	$324	0xf632b8…
03-20 05:36:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	No	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xbb52a4…
03-18 21:52:53	will trump say ayatollah or khamenei this week march 15	No	BUY	1,240	100¢	$1,237	0x33b94b…
03-14 05:28:23	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1,237	100¢	$1,232	0xd0982b…
03-12 04:39:37	will the greens win the second most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	No	BUY	1,232	100¢	$1,231	0x6d6452…
03-09 15:47:55	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	No	BUY	1,231	99¢	$1,218	0x5e83a6…
03-06 07:19:57	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	281	100¢	$280	0xfed063…
03-06 07:18:27	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	139	100¢	$139	0x1e7e77…
03-06 07:16:13	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x51ff55…
03-06 07:16:07	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	77	99¢	$77	0x36e132…
03-06 07:13:47	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	399	100¢	$397	0x768a88…
03-06 07:11:15	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x8f9c48…
03-06 07:11:01	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x07ccee…
03-06 07:10:53	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0x8d2223…
03-06 07:07:35	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0x45418a…
03-06 07:06:47	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x87a194…
03-06 07:02:29	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	6	95¢	$5	0xf1e29f…
03-06 07:02:27	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	55	95¢	$52	0x3fd798…
03-06 07:02:07	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x02550c…
03-06 07:01:51	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x613b28…
03-06 07:01:51	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x2ccf08…
03-06 07:01:41	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	31	95¢	$30	0xe5dbed…
03-06 07:01:33	will khamenei tweet again by march 5	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xd303ac…
03-04 22:42:21	will trump say waste this week march 1	Yes	BUY	1,202	100¢	$1,199	0xe8bfc3…
02-06 06:12:25	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	733	97¢	$711	0x6b9e90…
02-06 06:07:49	Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	466	97¢	$451	0x88d936…
02-02 23:01:16	us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	Yes	BUY	1,162	99¢	$1,145	0x55d225…
01-29 22:22:00	new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	No	BUY	1,145	99¢	$1,140	0x73c25f…
01-27 20:55:41	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	1,140	100¢	$1,135	0x28b202…