Probable-Papa — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13.6K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

1.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$36.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$529

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-17

last 05-07 18:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

51% 100% +$10

Sports

49% 0% $-13,610

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	3	$13.6K	16,600	0	+16,600	Sean Strickland	$-13,610	05-06 04:33
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	10	$8.2K	11,986	0	+11,986	open	—	04-14 03:44
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	4	$5.7K	7,783	7,381	+402	open	—	04-27 01:02
ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	1	$3.7K	4,129	0	+4,129	open	—	01-25 05:29
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase january 13 19	3	$2.3K	3,523	0	+3,523	open	—	01-18 16:50
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?	3	$1.1K	542	669	-127	open	—	04-13 22:57
Lakers vs. Rockets	2	$200	354	0	+354	open	—	04-25 02:19
Will Solana reach $100 in May?	2	$101	142	0	+142	open	—	05-07 03:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	1	$100	124	0	+124	open	—	04-25 01:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	1	$100	104	0	+104	Down	+$4	05-06 04:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	1	$100	103	0	+103	Down	+$3	05-07 03:27
nba lac tor 2026 01 16	1	$80	121	0	+121	open	—	01-17 02:27
btc updown 5m 1776024900	2	$60	98	0	+98	open	—	04-12 20:18
btc updown 15m 1776396600	1	$50	72	0	+72	open	—	04-17 03:43
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase april 7 13	1	$50	52	0	+52	open	—	04-09 21:31
btc updown 15m 1776297600	1	$46	46	0	+46	open	—	04-16 00:11
btc updown 15m 1776296700	1	$45	46	0	+46	open	—	04-15 23:52
btc updown 15m 1776298500	1	$40	48	0	+48	open	—	04-16 00:23
btc updown 15m 1776222900	1	$40	44	0	+44	open	—	04-15 03:25
eth updown 15m 1769391900	2	$32	24	23	+0	open	—	01-26 01:59
btc updown 15m 1776711600	1	$30	59	0	+59	open	—	04-20 19:06
btc updown 15m 1776219300	1	$30	34	0	+34	open	—	04-15 02:24
btc updown 15m 1776710700	1	$30	35	0	+35	open	—	04-20 18:50
Cavaliers vs. Raptors	2	$27	40	39	+1	open	—	04-26 19:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	1	$25	27	0	+27	Down	+$2	05-06 04:42
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase january 27 february 2	2	$22	17	17	+0	open	—	01-27 04:33
btc updown 15m 1769459400	1	$20	42	0	+42	open	—	01-26 20:31
btc updown 15m 1776622500	1	$12	13	0	+13	open	—	04-19 18:24
btc updown 15m 1776620700	1	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	04-19 17:52
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	04-26 20:17

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-07 18:56:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x7874e8…
05-07 03:40:46	Will Solana reach $100 in May?	No	BUY	142	71¢	$100	0x6ebe94…
05-07 03:38:29	Will Solana reach $100 in May?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x2aaed3…
05-07 03:27:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	103	98¢	$100	0x379b23…
05-07 01:54:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xc35233…
05-06 04:58:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x7fb7cd…
05-06 04:42:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0xc1c51f…
05-06 04:33:44	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	16,463	82¢	$13,500	0xcf6603…
04-27 01:02:24	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	42	83¢	$35	0x44852a…
04-26 20:17:04	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Spurs	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x7b8307…
04-26 19:21:02	Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Raptors	SELL	39	44¢	$17	0x711ac2…
04-26 18:10:38	Cavaliers vs. Raptors	Raptors	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x02061d…
04-26 17:38:12	Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5	Under	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xfc699c…
04-25 22:28:24	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x7c7587…
04-25 02:19:40	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0x312c4e…
04-25 01:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	124	80¢	$100	0x665f2a…
04-25 01:09:36	Lakers vs. Rockets	Lakers	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0x7895f7…
04-21 04:48:48	UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	Khamzat Chimaev	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x1e7eda…
04-21 01:56:08	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	7,381	40¢	$2,934	0x2fce6f…
04-20 19:06:42	btc updown 15m 1776711600	Up	BUY	59	50¢	$30	0x3c35eb…
04-20 18:50:46	btc updown 15m 1776710700	Up	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0xe7a7e0…
04-20 13:49:54	btc updown 15m 1776692700	Up	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xfdae64…
04-19 18:24:24	btc updown 15m 1776622500	Down	BUY	13	92¢	$12	0x66f449…
04-19 17:52:20	btc updown 15m 1776620700	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x5de669…
04-17 03:46:58	btc updown 15m 1776397500	Up	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x647e4e…
04-17 03:43:24	btc updown 15m 1776396600	Down	BUY	72	69¢	$50	0x3e6a42…
04-16 00:23:32	btc updown 15m 1776298500	Down	BUY	48	83¢	$40	0xece536…
04-16 00:11:14	btc updown 15m 1776297600	Down	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0xed8565…
04-15 23:52:58	btc updown 15m 1776296700	Up	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0xb9f383…
04-15 03:25:16	btc updown 15m 1776222900	Up	BUY	44	90¢	$40	0x090660…
04-15 02:24:52	btc updown 15m 1776219300	Down	BUY	34	87¢	$30	0x4fd21a…
04-15 01:23:06	btc updown 15m 1776215700	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x1e4284…
04-14 03:52:49	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	715	35¢	$250	0xef922a…
04-14 03:51:29	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	7,026	36¢	$2,500	0xa2d4eb…
04-14 03:44:57	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	204	68¢	$139	0x813c58…
04-14 03:32:45	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	46	66¢	$30	0x1a1448…
04-14 02:13:45	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	784	67¢	$525	0x35780a…
04-14 02:12:27	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	91	66¢	$60	0xdd6c46…
04-14 02:12:17	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	60	65¢	$39	0xe9de93…
04-13 23:10:31	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	8,412	69¢	$5,804	0x4867f1…
04-13 23:09:55	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	765	68¢	$520	0x71454d…
04-13 23:07:49	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	1,202	67¢	$804	0x525da9…
04-13 23:05:09	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	402	64¢	$257	0xc15584…
04-13 22:57:33	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	669	99¢	$662	0xfea05e…
04-12 20:27:59	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xb2d76c…
04-12 20:18:49	btc updown 5m 1776024900	Down	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x54b826…
04-12 20:16:23	btc updown 5m 1776024900	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xca153a…
04-09 21:31:51	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase april 7 13	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0x75f257…
03-29 23:59:32	btc updown 5m 1774828800	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x444143…
03-25 23:45:39	btc updown 5m 1774482300	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x25d0b9…
01-28 05:46:59	bitcoin up or down january 28 12am et	Up	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0x41e422…
01-27 07:55:39	bitcoin up or down january 27 2am et	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x6e5298…
01-27 04:33:11	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase january 27 february 2	Yes	SELL	17	73¢	$12	0x3fd4bc…
01-26 23:26:03	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase january 27 february 2	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xe337aa…
01-26 20:31:37	btc updown 15m 1769459400	Up	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xaeb80e…
01-26 20:28:53	btc updown 15m 1769458500	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x27f1b1…
01-26 07:18:22	btc updown 15m 1769411700	Up	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x67a4c7…
01-26 07:06:50	btc updown 15m 1769410800	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x09fef3…
01-26 02:49:30	btc updown 15m 1769395500	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xefb6be…
01-26 01:59:50	eth updown 15m 1769391900	Down	SELL	23	94¢	$22	0x93dd61…
01-26 01:49:32	eth updown 15m 1769391900	Down	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x3d80fa…
01-25 05:29:26	ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	Gaethje	BUY	4,129	90¢	$3,728	0x946bd0…
01-20 00:46:18	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	312	80¢	$250	0x7e6e94…
01-20 00:44:56	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	230	79¢	$182	0x011cab…
01-18 16:50:56	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase january 13 19	No	BUY	2,067	66¢	$1,364	0x514115…
01-18 16:49:52	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase january 13 19	No	BUY	1,062	66¢	$700	0x126013…
01-18 16:11:18	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase january 13 19	No	BUY	394	51¢	$200	0x405b61…
01-17 02:27:36	nba lac tor 2026 01 16	Raptors	BUY	121	66¢	$80	0x7f5168…