Organic-Thinking — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$23.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$281

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 05-10 15:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 100% +$1

Other

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9?	2	$10.7K	5,334	5,334	+0	Yes	+$0	05-08 23:43
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?	3	$10.6K	5,352	5,300	+52	Yes	+$0	05-10 15:26
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	1	$95	100	0	+100	open	—	04-23 02:09
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	1	$90	95	0	+95	open	—	04-21 01:33
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 180 199	1	$89	90	0	+90	open	—	04-17 00:26
will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on april 16	1	$88	89	0	+89	open	—	04-15 23:26
will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on april 15	1	$88	88	0	+88	open	—	04-14 23:45
Espresso FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$66	33	33	+0	Yes	+$1	02-13 02:56
will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on march 13	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-13 01:22
bitcoin above 62k on march 25	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-24 23:09
will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on march 12	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-12 00:02
will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on march 18	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-17 23:38
will the price of xrp be between 1pt00 1pt10 on march 11	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-11 01:06
will the price of xrp be between 1pt00 1pt10 on march 10	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-10 00:59
will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on march 9	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-09 06:54
will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on march 8	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-07 23:37
will the price of ethereum be greater than 2400 on march 6	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-06 01:21
will the price of solana be between 60 70 on march 5	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-05 01:17
will the price of xrp be less than 1pt00 on march 4	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-04 00:50
will the price of bitcoin be less than 56000 on march 3	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-03 00:46
will the price of bitcoin be greater than 74000 on march 2	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-02 00:26
bitcoin above 74k on march 1	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	03-01 01:01
Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	02-27 23:39
will the price of xrp be between 1pt00 1pt10 on february 27	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	02-26 23:24
bitcoin above 72k on february 25	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	02-25 00:17
will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on february 24	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	02-24 04:28
will the price of xrp be less than 1pt00 on february 23	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	02-22 23:33
will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on february 21	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	02-21 00:31
bitcoin above 60k on february 20	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	02-20 03:53
will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on february 19	1	$34	34	0	+34	open	—	02-19 13:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-10 15:26:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?	Yes	SELL	3,886	100¢	$3,882	0xdc0755…
05-10 15:22:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?	Yes	SELL	1,414	100¢	$1,413	0x2d52f7…
05-10 12:54:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11?	Yes	BUY	5,352	100¢	$5,346	0xd40c73…
05-08 23:43:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9?	Yes	SELL	5,334	100¢	$5,329	0x7ecad6…
05-08 23:01:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 9?	Yes	BUY	5,334	100¢	$5,329	0xac5a27…
04-26 01:08:16	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xbc1b9f…
04-23 02:09:42	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x4d9397…
04-21 01:33:48	elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	No	BUY	95	95¢	$90	0x91605c…
04-17 00:26:48	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 180 199	No	BUY	90	98¢	$89	0x5e9656…
04-15 23:26:46	will the price of bitcoin be between 66000 68000 on april 16	No	BUY	89	100¢	$88	0xe2e1a1…
04-14 23:45:42	will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on april 15	No	BUY	88	100¢	$88	0xab579a…
04-14 01:35:51	Genius FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf48dbc…
04-12 23:43:55	bitcoin above 62k on april 13	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xf1ea2f…
04-12 00:34:23	bitcoin above 66k on april 12	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$14	0x872188…
04-11 08:28:33	bitcoin above 70k on april 11	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x91e8c2…
04-07 11:19:23	elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 340 359	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x97c9c4…
04-01 09:52:49	will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on april 2	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xe6f709…
03-24 23:09:59	bitcoin above 62k on march 25	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xea1261…
03-17 23:38:23	will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on march 18	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x6389fe…
03-16 23:47:45	will the price of bitcoin be between 64000 66000 on march 17	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0xe1b47a…
03-16 02:42:23	will the price of xrp be between 1pt10 1pt20 on march 16	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0xa05622…
03-14 02:51:49	will the price of ethereum be between 1600 1700 on march 14	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x75bff0…
03-13 01:22:37	will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on march 13	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x7ebf77…
03-12 00:02:39	will the price of bitcoin be between 78000 80000 on march 12	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xf702fc…
03-11 01:06:43	will the price of xrp be between 1pt00 1pt10 on march 11	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x83cf07…
03-10 00:59:15	will the price of xrp be between 1pt00 1pt10 on march 10	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x4fa258…
03-09 06:54:35	will the price of bitcoin be between 76000 78000 on march 9	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x896524…
03-07 23:37:27	will the price of bitcoin be between 74000 76000 on march 8	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xb7532e…
03-06 01:21:43	will the price of ethereum be greater than 2400 on march 6	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xa236db…
03-05 01:17:59	will the price of solana be between 60 70 on march 5	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x96de3f…
03-04 00:50:23	will the price of xrp be less than 1pt00 on march 4	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x2f3806…
03-03 00:46:51	will the price of bitcoin be less than 56000 on march 3	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x5a5a8f…
03-02 00:26:27	will the price of bitcoin be greater than 74000 on march 2	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x4c958d…
03-01 01:01:17	bitcoin above 74k on march 1	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x7034a2…
02-27 23:39:29	Fabric FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x5746ae…
02-26 23:24:12	will the price of xrp be between 1pt00 1pt10 on february 27	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xdae214…
02-25 00:17:18	bitcoin above 72k on february 25	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x4db2b8…
02-24 04:28:36	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on february 24	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x0fc6ad…
02-22 23:33:18	will the price of xrp be less than 1pt00 on february 23	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x7ac9f3…
02-21 00:31:14	will the price of bitcoin be less than 60000 on february 21	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x9f87de…
02-20 03:53:30	bitcoin above 60k on february 20	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xde0112…
02-19 13:29:58	will the price of bitcoin be between 72000 74000 on february 19	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xeba991…
02-18 09:02:50	will the price of bitcoin be between 60000 62000 on february 18	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xfecd80…
02-17 08:51:49	bitcoin above 62k on february 17	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0xf1fcb4…
02-15 14:35:15	ethereum above 2300 on february 15	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0xb888b3…
02-14 00:22:15	will the price of xrp be between 1pt00 1pt10 on february 14	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xb76920…
02-13 02:57:05	bitcoin above 60k on february 13	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x5fd128…
02-13 02:56:29	Espresso FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x3c81db…
02-11 01:40:23	Espresso FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	33	98¢	$33	0x89cb72…
02-10 03:45:25	will the price of xrp be between 1pt10 1pt20 on february 10	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x254f8f…
02-08 23:47:57	xrp above 1pt1 on february 9	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0xfcebfd…
02-08 00:19:45	will the price of xrp be between 1pt10 1pt20 on february 8	No	BUY	33	99¢	$32	0xdde144…
02-06 23:39:27	will the price of bitcoin be between 84000 86000 on february 7	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xf2d983…
02-05 21:01:43	will the price of xrp be between 1pt90 2pt00 on february 6	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x47623f…
02-05 00:24:13	will the price of xrp be between 1pt80 1pt90 on february 5	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xf35a9f…
02-03 23:59:58	bitcoin above 86k on february 4	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x96a219…
02-03 23:59:30	Tria FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5d2dc1…
02-03 23:59:22	Tria FDV above $20M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2c695a…
02-03 23:59:16	Tria FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5fbf27…
02-03 23:58:18	bitcoin above 86k on february 4	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x15dcef…
02-03 23:58:08	will the price of bitcoin be between 84000 86000 on february 4	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe42d3e…
02-03 02:36:28	bitcoin above 86k on february 3	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x5ff21c…
02-02 02:36:46	will the price of solana be between 120 130 on february 2	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x77a553…
01-31 23:12:36	xrp above 2pt2 on february 1	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x92fa20…
01-31 00:25:34	will the price of xrp be between 2pt00 2pt10 on january 31	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x1bd3ac…
01-30 01:51:54	will the price of ethereum be between 3100 3200 on january 30	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x806ccd…
01-28 12:57:37	will gold gc hit high 5100 by end of january 412 277 258 652	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x1f3368…
01-27 11:34:15	will the price of bitcoin be less than 82000 on january 27	No	BUY	32	100¢	$31	0x4a0d9f…
01-26 05:18:56	gc hit 5000 high jan 2026 374 153 895 849	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$31	0x88b718…
01-24 01:36:02	First to 5k: Gold or ETH?	Gold	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x71cb7e…
01-23 00:59:26	will the price of xrp be between 1pt60 1pt70 on january 23	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xf4d0f9…
01-22 00:32:34	will the price of xrp be between 1pt60 1pt70 on january 22	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x9fc3fb…
01-21 05:42:58	will the price of xrp be less than 1pt70 on january 21	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x7a2990…
01-19 23:47:20	will the price of xrp be between 2pt40 2pt50 on january 20	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x4f645d…
01-18 23:47:58	will the price of xrp be greater than 2pt50 on january 19	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xb501d7…
01-18 00:20:00	will the price of bitcoin be between 86000 88000 on january 18	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x9559db…
01-17 00:39:46	will the price of xrp be between 1pt70 1pt80 on january 17	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x9591cc…
01-16 00:40:58	Fogo FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xac7c7a…
01-15 01:10:50	will the price of xrp be between 2pt50 2pt60 on january 15	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xdee077…
01-14 01:10:56	will the price of xrp be between 1pt80 1pt90 on january 14	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x804845…
01-13 00:50:13	will the price of bitcoin be between 84000 86000 on january 13	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x13662e…
01-12 06:48:36	will the price of bitcoin be less than 84000 on january 12	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xf9fd81…
01-07 00:48:11	will the price of solana be between 100 110 on january 8	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x30330a…
01-06 02:03:37	will the price of xrp be between 1pt90 2pt00 on january 6	No	BUY	31	100¢	$30	0x7eb2a7…
01-05 08:01:47	will the price of xrp be between 1pt70 1pt80 on january 5	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x78f9ff…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Silver-Compassion 0x0f03…8f84	62	$12.8K	69	05-10 16:32
Jubilant-Tolerant 0x8a85…ca1b	57	$4.92K	58	04-26 01:10
Internal-Meeting 0x2fc3…afb3	53	$1.87K	54	04-26 01:10
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	51	$2.80K	886	05-10 00:57
Regular-Ghost 0x469a…4285	51	$1.62K	52	04-26 01:10
Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81	51	$561	448	03-26 20:12
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	46	$2.28K	1,502	04-16 02:16
Rundown-Regard 0x39aa…583c	45	$30.3K	635	04-27 15:05