Smart-Giraffe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$81

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.50K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$31

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-24

last 07-06 17:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Sports

35% 100% +$101

Politics

32% 0% $-6

Other

22% 0% $-13

Crypto

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	2	$445	273	273	+0	Yaroslav Amosov	+$101	05-10 00:38
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	3	$192	124	124	+0	open	—	04-21 20:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$135	134	134	+0	open	—	04-23 08:35
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	2	$98	81	80	+1	open	—	04-23 23:06
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	2	$90	119	0	+119	open	—	04-01 00:38
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$71	51	51	+0	open	—	06-15 04:08
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$67	50	50	+0	open	—	06-01 17:11
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	3	$50	244	244	+0	open	—	04-08 00:39
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$45	31	31	+0	open	—	03-31 08:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$44	37	37	+0	open	—	03-31 08:32
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$43	24	24	+0	open	—	03-28 17:50
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$35	47	0	+47	open	—	03-31 21:04
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	1	$30	86	0	+86	open	—	07-06 17:19
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	2	$21	50	50	+0	open	—	04-07 17:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$20	22	22	+0	open	—	04-13 22:27
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	4	$18	97	97	+0	Yes	$-13	04-28 12:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$16	62	62	+0	open	—	06-19 10:29
ufc cur1 jos52 2026 04 11	1	$15	28	0	+28	open	—	04-10 13:58
ufc jproch car6 2026 04 11	2	$15	29	0	+29	open	—	04-10 13:58
ufc pau2 aza 2026 04 11	2	$15	23	0	+23	open	—	04-10 13:57
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	2	$11	17	17	+0	open	—	03-24 19:38
ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	06-14 16:00
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	1	$6	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	$-6	05-12 10:36
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	1	$5	71	0	+71	open	—	05-23 21:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-06 17:19:53	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	86	35¢	$30	0x85ce32…
06-19 10:29:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	62	9¢	$6	0x3aad6e…
06-15 04:08:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xe72c06…
06-14 16:00:45	ufc cir ale30 2026 06 14	Ciryl Gane	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x09fd90…
06-12 14:06:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xcf1590…
06-12 14:05:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0xa53f89…
06-01 17:11:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xf77e67…
06-01 14:43:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	34¢	$17	0x86e89e…
05-23 21:14:15	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0xe8543a…
05-12 10:36:42	Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May?	No	BUY	1,000	1¢	$6	0x3e08c9…
05-10 00:38:38	UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	Yaroslav Amosov	SELL	273	100¢	$273	0x18610c…
05-06 12:50:26	UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)	Yaroslav Amosov	BUY	273	63¢	$172	0x3336b6…
04-28 12:35:06	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	72	2¢	$1	0x13b1db…
04-28 12:34:44	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	SELL	25	2¢	$1	0x0dffac…
04-25 11:25:56	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	70	15¢	$10	0x80fe08…
04-25 11:24:24	Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	No	BUY	27	19¢	$5	0x33e5bd…
04-23 23:06:30	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	Yes	SELL	80	60¢	$48	0x4602e6…
04-23 22:20:00	US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	Yes	BUY	81	61¢	$50	0x2b8ab2…
04-23 08:35:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	71	97¢	$69	0xa166cf…
04-21 20:39:20	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	109	99¢	$108	0x1fb1fb…
04-19 09:13:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	15	86¢	$13	0xf6fa01…
04-18 09:04:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	71	63¢	$45	0xc4ed82…
04-17 16:50:12	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	124	57¢	$71	0x3ad472…
04-13 22:29:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	62	18¢	$11	0x5178bf…
04-13 22:27:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	22	47¢	$10	0x66bc55…
04-13 16:44:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x49bbd0…
04-13 16:43:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0xf887f2…
04-10 13:58:35	ufc jproch car6 2026 04 11	Jirí Procházka	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x635a60…
04-10 13:58:01	ufc cur1 jos52 2026 04 11	Curtis Blaydes	BUY	28	54¢	$15	0x77c312…
04-10 13:57:07	ufc pau2 aza 2026 04 11	Azamat Murzakanov	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x780d16…
04-10 13:57:01	ufc pau2 aza 2026 04 11	Azamat Murzakanov	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x26e1b7…
04-08 00:39:03	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	244	19¢	$47	0x931708…
04-07 19:03:13	ufc jproch car6 2026 04 11	Jirí Procházka	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x2e0c16…
04-07 17:16:27	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	SELL	50	22¢	$11	0x9d73ba…
04-07 12:16:23	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x2a474c…
04-07 12:14:55	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	161	1¢	$2	0x441da9…
04-07 12:14:45	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x731f32…
04-01 00:38:11	EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	78	77¢	$60	0x2d29a1…
03-31 21:04:25	Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x76d533…
03-31 19:17:51	Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	Yes	BUY	40	75¢	$30	0xd08f4a…
03-31 19:16:25	EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x78533a…
03-31 08:32:07	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	SELL	37	66¢	$24	0x044b04…
03-31 08:32:03	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	SELL	31	80¢	$25	0xdc9974…
03-28 17:50:49	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	24	97¢	$23	0x2061e6…
03-24 19:40:41	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	No	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x3f687c…
03-24 19:39:57	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xa6a24d…
03-24 19:39:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x99c7d7…
03-24 19:38:17	US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	17	32¢	$6	0x8dfafa…
03-24 12:06:45	US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x2960ce…