Disguised-Award — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$36

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

48.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$434

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-13

last 06-02 01:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

78% 0% $-13

Other

17% 50% +$51

Politics

5% — —

Sports

0% 0% $-2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+17	$5	20¢	$3	$-2	06-02 01:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	11	$94	138	29	+109	open	—	05-01 08:55
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	12	$88	204	15	+189	open	—	04-24 11:47
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	7	$65	79	0	+79	open	—	04-19 22:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	4	$25	191	0	+191	open	—	04-17 14:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$21	68	0	+68	open	—	05-02 15:03
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	5	$16	69	0	+69	Yes	+$53	05-06 12:32
tsla above 350 on april 17 2026	3	$16	20	0	+20	open	—	04-14 15:04
bitcoin above 76k on april 18	3	$13	44	0	+44	open	—	04-18 15:20
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	4	$10	67	0	+67	open	—	05-13 16:17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	2	$8	16	0	+16	open	—	05-02 17:50
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	3	$7	49	0	+49	open	—	05-20 15:24
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1?	2	$7	10	0	+10	open	—	04-28 01:38
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?	1	$6	25	0	+25	open	—	04-16 03:10
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6?	2	$6	24	0	+24	No	$-6	05-06 05:56
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	1	$6	10	0	+10	open	—	04-28 01:41
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	1	$5	31	0	+31	open	—	05-28 16:04
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$5	17	0	+17	open	—	06-02 01:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	1	$3	14	0	+14	open	—	04-23 23:58
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?	3	$3	46	0	+46	open	—	04-25 23:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	3	$3	7	0	+7	Down	$-3	05-06 12:36
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5?	1	$2	125	0	+125	No	$-2	05-05 13:28
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	1	$2	6	0	+6	Club Atlético de Madrid	$-2	05-05 20:23
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$2	5	0	+5	No	$-2	04-25 12:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	1	$2	7	0	+7	open	—	05-02 17:51
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?	1	$2	9	0	+9	No	$-2	05-05 13:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	2	$2	117	0	+117	open	—	05-01 10:22
btc updown 5m 1776135600	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-14 03:01
btc updown 5m 1776224100	2	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-15 03:36
will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 13	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	04-13 03:40
wti up or down on april 23 2026	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	04-24 00:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 01:14:36	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x4a399a…
05-28 16:04:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x2c23f4…
05-20 15:24:02	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x1d3f3a…
05-19 03:07:53	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x906102…
05-14 10:11:33	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x0cac6e…
05-13 16:17:24	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x31e9b6…
05-06 12:36:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xa7d8a1…
05-06 12:36:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xb2e69a…
05-06 12:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xe35a9c…
05-06 12:32:42	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x0a0d83…
05-06 06:51:24	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x95e9d5…
05-06 05:56:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xe08af6…
05-05 20:23:38	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x2dfc7c…
05-05 13:28:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	125	2¢	$2	0xb0c994…
05-05 13:28:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0x181b5e…
05-05 08:08:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xe34b73…
05-04 07:23:26	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x38b296…
05-02 22:45:56	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x07645f…
05-02 17:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x5f150d…
05-02 17:50:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xd2ccfa…
05-02 15:03:58	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x50f18e…
05-02 15:03:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xfd237f…
05-02 05:10:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x039a6e…
05-02 05:09:36	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x2745b0…
05-01 18:40:08	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x0cb40a…
05-01 10:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1320d3…
05-01 10:22:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x171880…
05-01 10:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xe6935d…
05-01 10:10:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xe28814…
05-01 10:04:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x5b1a14…
05-01 08:57:02	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x7b03ca…
05-01 08:55:12	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xaedf73…
04-28 01:41:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in April?	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x527cc8…
04-28 01:39:42	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x4dcda5…
04-28 01:38:54	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x25f428…
04-25 23:10:16	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x7888be…
04-25 12:09:56	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xa54cbf…
04-25 07:50:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x9e667e…
04-25 07:36:36	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x839e3f…
04-25 06:28:32	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase April 21-27?	No	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xd7026a…
04-25 06:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x185799…
04-24 11:47:34	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x266359…
04-24 08:33:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x2ffa62…
04-24 00:00:42	wti up or down on april 23 2026	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x042261…
04-23 23:58:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	No	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0xf5b3b8…
04-23 23:53:20	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xdcb695…
04-23 22:49:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xd71df4…
04-22 14:22:22	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	53	19¢	$10	0xafaa2e…
04-22 02:44:02	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x656dd8…
04-22 01:04:42	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xb3456d…
04-21 08:41:54	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0x1eb11e…
04-19 22:30:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xbb0e6a…
04-19 22:27:44	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	30	66¢	$20	0xe422ef…
04-18 15:20:10	bitcoin above 76k on april 18	No	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xbbdcfd…
04-18 12:18:20	bitcoin above 76k on april 18	No	BUY	15	31¢	$5	0x3b25a7…
04-18 11:08:22	bitcoin above 76k on april 18	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x7efa7e…
04-18 11:05:48	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x1b1625…
04-18 11:04:52	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x0a12a4…
04-17 14:54:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xbbe0c9…
04-17 14:53:40	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x089c4c…
04-17 14:17:58	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	No	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xf4dec4…
04-17 14:13:58	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	15	54¢	$8	0x77c4fa…
04-17 14:10:18	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xf0ad42…
04-17 13:59:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xadad0a…
04-17 10:49:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x3aea9c…
04-17 06:55:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x5f2212…
04-16 21:21:50	bitcoin up or down april 16 2026 5pm et	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x6118b9…
04-16 21:21:32	btc updown 15m 1776374100	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xd93d21…
04-16 21:17:18	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xeb5f5b…
04-16 16:31:54	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xd22ccc…
04-16 03:10:50	Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31?	No	BUY	25	24¢	$6	0xe6ed0e…
04-16 02:18:46	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x458add…
04-15 20:45:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xc337e0…
04-15 19:34:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x9851d4…
04-15 19:33:10	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x8a97b6…
04-15 03:36:02	btc updown 5m 1776224100	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd1f571…
04-15 03:35:18	btc updown 5m 1776224100	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x1fac5c…
04-15 00:41:20	btc updown 5m 1776213600	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x10527b…
04-14 20:55:00	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x4c6468…
04-14 20:54:12	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x674b89…
04-14 15:04:33	tsla above 350 on april 17 2026	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0x93038b…
04-14 15:03:17	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x51ec3e…
04-14 13:22:33	tsla above 350 on april 17 2026	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x0c51ea…
04-14 13:18:57	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x04fc9e…
04-14 11:13:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x71823b…
04-14 11:13:09	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x5975e2…
04-14 08:29:49	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	SELL	29	32¢	$9	0xad82ea…
04-14 08:29:23	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$80k	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x1a50e5…
04-14 04:45:51	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0xc436d8…
04-14 04:07:47	Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	$60k	BUY	17	34¢	$6	0xc5faed…
04-14 03:06:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xec0096…
04-14 03:01:35	btc updown 5m 1776135600	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x258ce1…
04-14 02:38:19	tsla above 350 on april 17 2026	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xee7951…
04-14 00:12:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x83485e…
04-13 03:43:03	tsla up or down on april 13 2026	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x9e536b…
04-13 03:40:43	will the price of bitcoin be between 70000 72000 on april 13	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x81f24d…
04-13 03:39:25	Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x3e807d…