Hard-To-Find-Illusion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$239

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.6%

Resolved

Trades

216

lifetime

Volume

$1.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-11

last 05-18 08:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

75% 30% $-10

Politics

14% 100% +$257

Other

8% — —

Sports

4% 0% $-9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 57 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1773319500	1	$98	110	0	+110	open	—	03-12 12:48
btc updown 5m 1773322500	1	$75	100	0	+100	open	—	03-12 13:39
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	5	$59	317	0	+317	Yes	+$257	03-17 00:59
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	12	$49	411	0	+411	open	—	03-16 12:21
btc updown 5m 1773317700	2	$37	60	0	+60	open	—	03-12 12:17
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	3	$34	18,417	0	+18,417	open	—	03-13 11:45
btc updown 5m 1773395400	2	$32	40	0	+40	open	—	03-13 09:55
btc updown 5m 1773315000	6	$32	40	0	+40	open	—	03-12 11:34
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	3	$30	23,333	0	+23,333	open	—	03-12 09:21
btc updown 5m 1773317100	4	$28	40	0	+40	open	—	03-12 12:08
btc updown 5m 1773401400	1	$25	30	0	+30	open	—	03-13 11:34
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	03-16 10:14
btc updown 5m 1773312900	4	$20	30	0	+30	open	—	03-12 10:59
btc updown 5m 1773312600	4	$20	40	0	+40	open	—	03-12 10:51
btc updown 5m 1773316800	3	$19	30	0	+30	open	—	03-12 12:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	6	$18	25	0	+25	Down	+$7	05-13 14:04
btc updown 5m 1773322200	4	$18	30	0	+30	open	—	03-12 13:31
btc updown 5m 1773312300	3	$18	30	0	+30	open	—	03-12 10:49
btc updown 5m 1773396000	6	$17	50	0	+50	open	—	03-13 10:02
btc updown 5m 1773395700	3	$17	20	20	+0	open	—	03-13 09:58
bitcoin above 74k on march 13	2	$15	100	100	+0	open	—	03-13 11:39
Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	6	$13	144	0	+144	open	—	03-13 11:37
btc updown 5m 1773315300	3	$12	30	0	+30	open	—	03-12 11:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	5	$11	19	9	+10	open	—	05-18 08:08
btc updown 5m 1773315900	4	$11	30	0	+30	open	—	03-12 11:48
btc updown 5m 1773316500	2	$11	20	0	+20	open	—	03-12 11:59
btc updown 5m 1773319800	4	$11	40	0	+40	open	—	03-12 12:51
Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	1	$10	111	0	+111	open	—	03-11 10:34
btc updown 5m 1773321900	4	$10	30	0	+30	open	—	03-12 13:26
ethereum above 2100 on march 12	1	$10	120	0	+120	open	—	03-12 09:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 08:09:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x302f2c…
05-18 08:08:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xc660f3…
05-18 08:08:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3ae409…
05-18 08:08:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x69068d…
05-18 08:07:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0x4d68b4…
05-18 08:06:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xea3b36…
05-18 08:05:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xc4ef12…
05-18 08:03:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x445f68…
05-18 08:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x1a8e78…
05-18 08:02:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x6cab15…
05-18 08:02:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0xbe904c…
05-18 07:58:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x89f11c…
05-18 07:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x12f3cd…
05-13 14:17:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	SELL	11	30¢	$3	0xe9ce82…
05-13 14:17:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0xdbb0b7…
05-13 14:12:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x9373f1…
05-13 14:12:31	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0xf91b4f…
05-13 14:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x354c44…
05-13 14:11:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x9d5fd7…
05-13 14:11:09	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0x095421…
05-13 14:08:17	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x182cd6…
05-13 14:07:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x0f1f2d…
05-13 14:07:14	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x3f1ed9…
05-13 14:06:27	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x16d2a5…
05-13 14:06:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x45f791…
05-13 14:04:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x013d76…
05-13 14:04:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xb59c47…
05-13 14:03:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x536c57…
05-13 14:03:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x0f2047…
05-13 14:02:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x71d4ae…
05-13 14:02:39	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x0ce2b2…
05-13 14:02:34	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xf4378c…
05-13 14:02:20	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xc534f4…
05-13 14:01:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x2179d2…
05-13 14:01:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	79¢	$3	0x42211c…
05-13 14:01:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0x6ebac1…
05-13 14:01:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$3	0xa03046…
05-13 13:59:01	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	18	4¢	$1	0x5491a5…
05-13 13:58:01	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x5a5f0b…
05-13 13:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x839d08…
05-13 13:57:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x30f28a…
05-13 13:56:48	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0xe6ac3a…
05-13 13:56:07	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x9d163d…
05-13 13:54:07	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xc65206…
05-13 13:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x5c8f2c…
05-13 13:52:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x169dc6…
05-13 13:51:17	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xf5c9ad…
05-13 13:48:20	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x80f87b…
05-13 13:47:08	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x1e0f16…
05-13 13:46:00	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9ddd6c…
05-13 13:45:57	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xe328e9…
05-13 13:44:01	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	51¢	$1	0xfba94c…
05-13 13:43:47	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x482345…
05-13 13:43:00	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0xbcffaa…
05-13 13:42:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x73ccd6…
05-13 13:42:04	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x455b0b…
05-13 13:41:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x4e6de6…
05-13 13:37:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa32a7c…
05-13 13:37:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xecf97e…
05-13 13:37:38	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x6d4fc0…
05-13 13:37:06	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x3a9fb8…
05-13 13:33:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	36	8¢	$3	0xcdbcc4…
05-13 13:31:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	28¢	$3	0x8bdacc…
05-13 13:31:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xc4927a…
05-13 13:31:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xb247dc…
05-13 13:23:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x710a72…
05-13 13:22:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x0d8003…
05-13 13:21:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	16	13¢	$2	0x5a7f06…
05-13 13:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xb2a8af…
05-13 13:18:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x2129db…
03-26 11:56:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	Yes	BUY	80	8¢	$6	0x266a11…
03-23 05:16:01	Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	54	6¢	$3	0x73b3ce…
03-22 22:28:55	will gold gc settle at 5125 5250 in march	Yes	BUY	81	3¢	$2	0x1488fa…
03-20 18:30:01	Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0x5c6eb9…
03-20 18:30:01	Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	23	6¢	$1	0x22ebf7…
03-20 12:39:01	will gold gc settle at 5125 5250 in march	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x6f7912…
03-20 10:04:21	will gold gc settle at 5125 5250 in march	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x3755c1…
03-20 08:50:41	Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	12	6¢	$1	0x208cd5…
03-17 00:59:07	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	4	19¢	$1	0xf04bdb…
03-17 00:48:49	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xded9bd…
03-17 00:46:21	Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	36	19¢	$7	0x67674d…
03-16 12:21:41	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	No	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0x46dfe6…
03-16 11:37:29	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?	No	BUY	58	8¢	$5	0x77faeb…
03-16 10:14:41	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	15	70¢	$11	0x477632…
03-13 11:51:57	Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0xb50f74…
03-13 11:45:53	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x79df00…
03-13 11:39:01	bitcoin above 74k on march 13	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x7f33d7…
03-13 11:37:45	Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	3	9¢	$0	0xe06295…
03-13 11:37:45	Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xc7d867…
03-13 11:37:45	Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	6	8¢	$0	0x2a4791…
03-13 11:37:39	Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xf83709…
03-13 11:37:29	Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	11	8¢	$1	0x86ae36…
03-13 11:37:21	Will Delhi Capitals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	9	9¢	$1	0x199465…
03-13 11:36:35	bitcoin above 72k on march 13	Yes	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x1886d1…
03-13 11:34:29	btc updown 5m 1773401400	Up	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x30f868…
03-13 10:08:51	btc updown 5m 1773396300	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x7f81e8…
03-13 10:07:53	btc updown 5m 1773396300	Up	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xe27353…
03-13 10:07:25	btc updown 5m 1773396300	Up	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x186a4b…
03-13 10:02:53	btc updown 5m 1773396000	Down	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x9484db…
03-13 10:01:23	btc updown 5m 1773396000	Down	BUY	10	24¢	$2	0x5b8c3b…