Accurate-Variability — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.1%

Resolved

Trades

183

lifetime

Volume

$424

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 06-02 05:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 60% +$6

Other

5% 60% +$2

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	4	$29	29	21	+8	Up	+$1	05-13 04:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	2	$23	17	17	+0	Down	+$5	05-13 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	6	$22	27	21	+6	Down	$-2	05-12 10:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	2	$19	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	05-13 02:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET	7	$16	27	18	+9	Down	$-2	05-11 16:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	2	$16	15	15	+0	Down	+$0	05-13 10:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	2	$15	11	11	+0	Down	+$5	05-13 08:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	3	$13	12	12	+0	Up	+$9	05-11 15:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	4	$11	45	5	+40	Up	$-3	05-12 09:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	2	$10	7	7	+0	Up	+$0	05-13 08:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	4	$10	106	6	+100	Down	+$0	05-12 09:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	1	$10	14	0	+14	Down	+$4	05-13 02:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	3	$9	57	7	+50	Up	$-1	05-12 05:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	2	$8	14	0	+14	Up	+$0	05-12 17:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	2	$8	6	6	+0	Down	+$2	05-12 12:27
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	4	$8	10	10	+0	open	—	05-13 13:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	5	$8	108	8	+100	Down	+$0	05-11 16:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	1	$8	13	0	+13	Down	$-8	05-13 10:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	4	$8	11	8	+3	Down	$-0	05-12 10:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	4	$7	10	2	+8	Down	$-5	05-13 10:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	4	$7	15	15	+0	Up	+$3	05-11 14:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	4	$6	12	12	+0	Down	+$0	05-11 17:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	2	$6	4	4	+0	Up	+$0	05-12 11:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	1	$6	9	0	+9	Up	+$3	05-12 17:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	1	$6	8	0	+8	Up	+$2	05-13 01:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET	3	$5	6	4	+2	Up	+$2	05-11 19:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	2	$5	8	8	+0	Down	+$3	05-11 19:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	1	$5	8	0	+8	Up	$-5	05-13 01:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	4	$5	13	0	+13	Down	$-5	05-12 09:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	5	$5	10	0	+10	Up	$-5	05-13 09:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 05:24:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe2d9ec…
05-17 02:44:01	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xa7a169…
05-13 21:58:11	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x694683…
05-13 14:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x2bdbfc…
05-13 14:26:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xdcb2fb…
05-13 13:51:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x7f8035…
05-13 13:39:12	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0x717bb2…
05-13 10:47:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0xe891ec…
05-13 10:30:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	15	57¢	$8	0x0d5614…
05-13 10:29:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0x7b93ba…
05-13 10:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x71da7e…
05-13 10:18:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0x720b6a…
05-13 10:18:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x967fb9…
05-13 10:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x46f4af…
05-13 10:04:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	17	79¢	$14	0xb18fa4…
05-13 10:00:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	17	52¢	$9	0x7be009…
05-13 09:45:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	48¢	$2	0xbaaa19…
05-13 09:45:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x196ad4…
05-13 09:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	50¢	$1	0xfd1551…
05-13 09:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xc4d60d…
05-13 09:45:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0xc04388…
05-13 09:32:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x3d6b6d…
05-13 08:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0x1512e3…
05-13 08:31:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x9eafe8…
05-13 08:29:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	11	92¢	$10	0x711acb…
05-13 08:29:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xaa8200…
05-13 08:17:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x6e6225…
05-13 08:16:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x00208f…
05-13 08:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xd2e4de…
05-13 05:03:46	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xacf35a…
05-13 05:03:39	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x171eb2…
05-13 05:03:24	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x22bebf…
05-13 04:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	9	44¢	$4	0x20db64…
05-13 04:29:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x818e3e…
05-13 04:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x67fba5…
05-13 04:28:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	21	68¢	$14	0x257b43…
05-13 04:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	61¢	$13	0x73d523…
05-13 02:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x0cc35c…
05-13 02:42:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xd87a78…
05-13 02:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x41d949…
05-13 02:03:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	4	70¢	$3	0x54c078…
05-13 02:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xa5ce82…
05-13 01:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0x99a475…
05-13 01:20:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x4b0c03…
05-13 01:05:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x025ffd…
05-12 22:26:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xb1e75c…
05-12 22:26:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	SELL	2	25¢	$0	0x0827e0…
05-12 22:25:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8befd8…
05-12 22:23:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x139da6…
05-12 22:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x73b1a9…
05-12 22:16:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x17dd81…
05-12 22:08:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x1434f0…
05-12 22:02:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xe8a499…
05-12 21:59:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x8f773e…
05-12 21:48:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xb2d5ad…
05-12 21:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xbdd887…
05-12 17:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xe14da5…
05-12 17:08:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	90¢	$8	0x46d8ee…
05-12 17:07:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xfacf71…
05-12 16:46:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x10415a…
05-12 16:40:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x55b8ea…
05-12 16:39:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8d372d…
05-12 15:17:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0xa64ba2…
05-12 15:16:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xea415f…
05-12 15:08:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xc36a40…
05-12 14:55:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x5c8f7b…
05-12 14:37:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0xa69484…
05-12 14:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x80685e…
05-12 13:50:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xd4fd61…
05-12 13:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xef1689…
05-12 13:43:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xab9d7a…
05-12 13:42:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x55b94e…
05-12 13:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0x4aa71e…
05-12 13:03:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x668fa8…
05-12 12:59:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf4092b…
05-12 12:58:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x5e83a2…
05-12 12:55:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x8c58c4…
05-12 12:55:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	0	33¢	$0	0x29666d…
05-12 12:54:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xbab80d…
05-12 12:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0xa5b6b3…
05-12 12:54:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	0	14¢	$0	0x20c323…
05-12 12:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	97¢	$5	0x21e5ca…
05-12 12:13:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xda90a6…
05-12 11:25:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	SELL	4	82¢	$3	0xa386e0…
05-12 11:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xd9f755…
05-12 11:09:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0xc29826…
05-12 11:06:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xdc7360…
05-12 11:06:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x963096…
05-12 10:46:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xea4b5c…
05-12 10:41:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x724c21…
05-12 10:39:56	LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend	Top Esports	SELL	4	63¢	$2	0x0f862c…
05-12 10:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0x24d2e6…
05-12 10:37:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x3eb10b…
05-12 10:32:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xf43316…
05-12 10:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x55021b…
05-12 10:18:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x9e2753…
05-12 10:12:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x625737…
05-12 10:11:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x78227e…
05-12 10:11:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	SELL	11	48¢	$5	0x9164a8…
05-12 10:11:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xa0dc02…