Wrong-Thermostat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$10

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.7%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$251

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 07-02 11:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

70% 67% +$10

Other

26% — —

Politics

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	2	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	04-29 07:59
btc updown 5m 1781900400	1	$20	100	0	+100	open	—	06-19 20:20
starmer out by june 22 2026	1	$20	32	0	+32	open	—	06-21 16:19
btc updown 5m 1782058800	3	$15	148	0	+148	open	—	06-21 16:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	2	$10	20	0	+20	Up	+$10	05-13 17:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	1	$10	16	0	+16	open	—	04-21 12:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	2	$10	66	0	+66	open	—	05-15 20:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	1	$7	8	0	+8	open	—	04-27 17:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	2	$6	11	0	+11	open	—	04-27 09:56
btc updown 5m 1782059700	2	$6	22	0	+22	open	—	06-21 16:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	2	$6	11	0	+11	Down	+$5	05-13 17:22
James Comey arrested by April 30?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	04-29 08:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	1	$5	25	0	+25	Down	$-5	05-10 08:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	05-16 07:47
highest temperature in london on april 22 2026 16c	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	04-21 23:42
btc updown 5m 1780952400	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	06-08 21:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	1	$5	83	0	+83	open	—	05-14 18:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	05-14 13:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	1	$5	19	0	+19	open	—	05-15 12:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	1	$5	71	0	+71	open	—	05-15 12:31
btc updown 5m 1782374700	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	06-25 08:05
btc updown 5m 1782120600	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	06-22 09:31
btc updown 5m 1781173200	1	$5	14	0	+14	open	—	06-11 10:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	1	$5	23	0	+23	open	—	04-29 08:05
btc updown 5m 1782119400	1	$5	15	0	+15	open	—	06-22 09:10
eth updown 5m 1780952400	1	$5	23	0	+23	open	—	06-08 21:00
btc updown 5m 1781998200	1	$5	16	0	+16	open	—	06-20 23:31
elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	04-21 12:17
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	3	$4	3,009	0	+3,009	open	—	04-21 23:45
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 27?	1	$4	8	0	+8	open	—	04-27 09:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 11:29:44	btc updown 5m 1782991500	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd17f7f…
07-02 08:32:01	btc updown 5m 1782981000	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xc4956a…
07-02 08:32:01	btc updown 5m 1782981000	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x0b1f3c…
07-02 07:50:37	btc updown 5m 1782978600	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x6482ff…
07-02 07:50:34	btc updown 5m 1782978600	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xad3c21…
07-02 06:26:50	btc updown 5m 1782973500	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xbbc8ed…
06-29 21:12:50	btc updown 5m 1782767400	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xd1d23c…
06-25 08:05:14	btc updown 5m 1782374700	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x30eee9…
06-25 08:03:55	btc updown 5m 1782374400	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xeee5ca…
06-24 21:02:58	btc updown 5m 1782334800	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x532cef…
06-24 16:34:37	btc updown 5m 1782318600	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x542ba7…
06-22 09:31:34	btc updown 5m 1782120600	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x9aadb2…
06-22 09:10:44	btc updown 5m 1782119400	Down	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0x1f68e8…
06-21 16:42:53	btc updown 5m 1782060000	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x3ec51e…
06-21 16:42:13	btc updown 5m 1782060000	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x5166de…
06-21 16:42:11	btc updown 5m 1782060000	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xbd0a40…
06-21 16:35:55	btc updown 5m 1782059700	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x01be56…
06-21 16:35:52	btc updown 5m 1782059700	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x2cdf15…
06-21 16:23:08	btc updown 5m 1782058800	Down	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0xd9ca42…
06-21 16:20:26	btc updown 5m 1782058800	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x5eb316…
06-21 16:20:25	btc updown 5m 1782058800	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xd914d5…
06-21 16:19:07	starmer out by june 22 2026	Yes	BUY	32	63¢	$20	0x19bc21…
06-20 23:31:43	btc updown 5m 1781998200	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x4847cb…
06-19 20:20:46	btc updown 5m 1781900400	Up	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x76df2e…
06-11 10:20:31	btc updown 5m 1781173200	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xac9c70…
06-08 21:00:46	eth updown 5m 1780952400	Down	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x579e9b…
06-08 21:00:25	btc updown 5m 1780952400	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x4f60d4…
06-08 20:59:00	eth updown 5m 1780952100	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xea6e4c…
06-08 20:58:36	btc updown 5m 1780952100	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x8474c8…
05-17 07:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x1ca53a…
05-16 07:47:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xea0441…
05-15 20:21:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x77c748…
05-15 20:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xe870cf…
05-15 19:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xebe79a…
05-15 19:06:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9bf064…
05-15 16:21:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x289a51…
05-15 12:45:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xd5be06…
05-15 12:31:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x8b56b2…
05-14 18:02:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Up	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x6db3b0…
05-14 13:00:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x3ad6da…
05-13 17:22:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	34¢	$1	0x03b4ab…
05-13 17:20:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x9b9e8c…
05-13 17:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x290472…
05-13 17:10:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x184c66…
05-10 08:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x55cc9d…
05-02 09:32:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x2a02cf…
05-01 17:56:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x9749cc…
04-29 08:05:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xf5fa5f…
04-29 08:04:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xf465a0…
04-29 08:01:34	James Comey arrested by May 15?	No	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x7878f3…
04-29 08:01:18	James Comey arrested by April 30?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xe3c997…
04-29 07:59:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xf2aa80…
04-27 17:17:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x61046b…
04-27 09:59:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 27?	Yes	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x066375…
04-27 09:56:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xd7a3d7…
04-27 09:55:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xe6d80c…
04-21 23:45:34	Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x5b41bb…
04-21 23:44:36	Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xba47e4…
04-21 23:42:24	highest temperature in london on april 22 2026 16c	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd1519d…
04-21 12:29:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0xa9fcb4…
04-21 12:20:10	Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xd56978…
04-21 12:17:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x6eb692…
04-21 12:17:16	elon musk of tweets april 14 april 21 220 239	Yes	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x75688a…