Informal-Afoul — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

91.6%

Resolved

Trades

193

lifetime

Volume

$521

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 06-21 02:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 78% +$9

Other

1% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 79 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-45	$-2	2¢	$-1	+$1	06-13 23:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	4	$24	15	15	+0	open	—	05-28 06:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	4	$21	39	39	+0	open	—	05-16 21:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	2	$18	12	12	+0	open	—	05-28 23:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	5	$16	147	16	+130	open	—	05-27 18:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	3	$15	25	0	+25	open	—	06-03 11:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	3	$14	24	19	+5	open	—	05-26 23:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	4	$14	19	19	+0	open	—	05-27 20:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	7	$13	18	18	+0	open	—	05-27 01:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	05-28 23:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	3	$12	10	10	+0	Up	+$8	05-12 05:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	2	$12	15	15	+0	open	—	05-25 21:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	3	$12	17	15	+2	open	—	05-26 23:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	3	$12	18	10	+8	open	—	05-28 23:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	3	$11	65	15	+50	open	—	05-27 00:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	2	$11	29	29	+0	open	—	05-25 20:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	3	$11	33	12	+21	open	—	05-28 22:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	3	$10	44	30	+14	open	—	05-27 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	1	$10	23	0	+23	open	—	05-25 21:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	3	$10	13	13	+0	open	—	05-26 19:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	5	$9	19	19	+0	open	—	05-27 01:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	2	$9	11	11	+0	open	—	05-28 18:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	5	$8	17	17	+0	open	—	05-27 03:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	2	$7	9	9	+0	open	—	05-27 01:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	4	$7	8	8	+0	open	—	05-26 23:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	4	$7	4	4	+0	Up	+$1	05-12 12:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	2	$7	7	7	+0	open	—	05-27 02:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	2	$7	7	7	+0	open	—	05-28 06:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	2	$7	5	5	+0	open	—	05-27 04:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	2	$7	11	11	+0	open	—	05-28 06:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	2	$7	6	6	+0	open	—	06-01 01:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-21 02:01:07	btc updown 5m 1782007200	Up	SELL	2	47¢	$1	0x96e2b8…
06-21 02:00:23	btc updown 5m 1782007200	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x0e5fe9…
06-13 23:52:09	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	4¢	$2	0x4c4bf6…
06-03 11:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x2a5b6a…
06-03 11:00:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x0958ed…
06-03 11:00:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0xd24c25…
06-01 07:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x929a56…
06-01 01:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0x325327…
06-01 01:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xf38cfa…
05-31 17:51:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Up	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xe1c9e0…
05-31 04:52:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x1c572b…
05-31 04:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	19	16¢	$3	0x0dd548…
05-28 23:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x0c51b4…
05-28 23:19:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0xb9eeaa…
05-28 23:16:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0x1f5f25…
05-28 23:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x86f9df…
05-28 23:12:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xfd7984…
05-28 23:11:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x1e1584…
05-28 23:08:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x2b900c…
05-28 23:06:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x06bbcc…
05-28 22:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0xb2ee45…
05-28 22:43:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	SELL	19	5¢	$1	0x398051…
05-28 22:42:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x105f76…
05-28 22:38:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xabad41…
05-28 22:27:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x9d13b6…
05-28 22:26:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xe21323…
05-28 22:23:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	SELL	7	32¢	$2	0x585e84…
05-28 22:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Up	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xb8b5fd…
05-28 22:12:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	21	14¢	$3	0x75a20d…
05-28 22:10:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0x712de5…
05-28 22:10:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	12	25¢	$3	0x3082c9…
05-28 18:58:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	SELL	11	51¢	$6	0x6fa5b9…
05-28 18:56:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	29¢	$3	0x59b915…
05-28 06:33:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0xeac484…
05-28 06:32:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x6abda7…
05-28 06:30:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xc379fe…
05-28 06:29:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x53f7d4…
05-28 06:27:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x14d9e7…
05-28 06:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x12f3e7…
05-28 06:22:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0xa036b5…
05-28 06:21:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	SELL	7	41¢	$3	0x4379ae…
05-28 06:21:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x491ae9…
05-28 06:18:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	SELL	7	61¢	$4	0x252ce2…
05-28 06:17:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xf1b9f7…
05-27 20:06:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x41c5d5…
05-27 20:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	9	47¢	$4	0xafd64a…
05-27 20:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x5e754f…
05-27 20:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x33f13b…
05-27 20:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x2c97d6…
05-27 18:14:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	130	2¢	$3	0x39ca71…
05-27 18:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	7	49¢	$3	0xf98794…
05-27 18:11:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x34e7b3…
05-27 18:11:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	SELL	9	35¢	$3	0x9f926b…
05-27 18:10:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	9	32¢	$3	0x8653e5…
05-27 18:09:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x4f6c6f…
05-27 18:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	SELL	30	14¢	$4	0x9ebe68…
05-27 18:08:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x8b6f2b…
05-27 18:04:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x703559…
05-27 04:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0x2da7fc…
05-27 04:36:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xd1e755…
05-27 04:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x78aa0f…
05-27 04:29:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xcae4bd…
05-27 04:27:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x5bc208…
05-27 04:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x81957e…
05-27 04:22:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x03d55a…
05-27 04:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x1b7349…
05-27 04:07:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xec748e…
05-27 03:57:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	SELL	6	27¢	$1	0x8dce6a…
05-27 03:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x7dd8d5…
05-27 03:41:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	32¢	$1	0xb1bbcc…
05-27 03:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xc04671…
05-27 03:38:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0x07425f…
05-27 03:36:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Up	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x705fb7…
05-27 03:30:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0x105515…
05-27 03:30:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x188825…
05-27 03:29:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x45a16e…
05-27 03:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0xa0f22c…
05-27 03:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xb3ff80…
05-27 03:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	SELL	4	44¢	$2	0x2fd243…
05-27 03:12:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xe08d1c…
05-27 03:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xec7745…
05-27 03:09:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xb01ad3…
05-27 03:03:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0xb57451…
05-27 03:02:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x0f252c…
05-27 03:02:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	SELL	13	25¢	$3	0x208ff6…
05-27 03:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xde3f54…
05-27 03:01:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xf9fce3…
05-27 02:57:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0x7cd124…
05-27 02:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x3a73fb…
05-27 02:52:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x1d690e…
05-27 02:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x4afa7f…
05-27 02:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0xf7bc8b…
05-27 02:50:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x488896…
05-27 02:47:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0xa452a1…
05-27 02:47:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x8594e4…
05-27 02:47:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xab3c00…
05-27 02:47:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x740265…
05-27 02:40:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x6e4319…
05-27 02:33:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	SELL	6	36¢	$2	0x1ca5c0…
05-27 02:32:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x322606…