Crafty-Alloy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

36.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$189

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-12

last 07-02 21:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Tech

38% — —

Other

37% 100% +$1

Sports

10% 0% $-0

Politics

10% — —

Crypto

6% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	3	$42	38	9	+28	open	—	04-23 15:23
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$19	28	28	+0	No	$-0	04-19 20:25
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$16	8	8	+0	open	—	04-15 17:40
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$15	24	0	+24	open	—	04-23 21:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	2	$11	15	15	+0	Yes	+$1	05-04 10:47
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$11	28	28	+0	open	—	04-23 20:54
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	4	$9	9	9	+0	open	—	04-22 09:12
btc updown 5m 1776609300	4	$6	6	5	+0	open	—	04-19 14:40
will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	07-01 20:08
Will Trump say "Love Trump" or "Loves Trump" in April?	2	$5	8	8	+0	open	—	04-28 17:35
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	06-12 09:25
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	1	$4	10	0	+10	open	—	04-15 17:51
will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	1	$4	9	0	+9	open	—	06-10 09:29
fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	3	$3	7	4	+3	open	—	06-29 18:53
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by june 30 2026	2	$3	9	9	+0	open	—	06-08 08:49
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$3	10	0	+10	open	—	04-22 09:14
will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	3	$3	3	2	+2	open	—	07-02 02:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	04-24 07:42
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	04-24 07:42
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	06-08 14:44
btc updown 5m 1776613500	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	04-19 15:45
fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 btts	1	$2	5	0	+5	open	—	06-10 09:27
fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	06-29 08:52
fifwc ury esp 2026 06 26 btts	1	$2	4	0	+4	open	—	06-26 22:28
fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	07-02 21:06
btc updown 5m 1776609600	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	04-19 14:41
fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 total 1pt5	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	07-02 21:07
atp manning mmoh 2026 07 02	1	$1	1	0	+1	open	—	07-01 22:10
gpt 5pt6 released by june 8 2026 884	2	$1	11	11	+0	open	—	06-05 08:53
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	1	$1	12	0	+12	open	—	04-22 20:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 21:07:31	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0xb215a3…
07-02 21:06:58	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 btts	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xe30300…
07-02 21:06:46	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Portugal	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x29054d…
07-02 02:49:20	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	Yes	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0x3fb339…
07-02 02:47:44	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x2d3289…
07-01 22:10:07	atp manning mmoh 2026 07 02	Michael Mmoh	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xaab22f…
07-01 20:09:25	will trump speak to mohammed bin salman in june	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x0ded42…
07-01 20:08:31	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x5ee150…
07-01 09:28:08	will olivia dean have a 1 hit in the us in june	No	BUY	3	84¢	$2	0x43db1d…
06-29 18:53:58	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x0b23d2…
06-29 18:41:05	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0xf8f149…
06-29 08:52:37	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x026d13…
06-29 08:50:07	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xefde82…
06-26 22:28:52	fifwc ury esp 2026 06 26 btts	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xaf9f34…
06-12 09:25:04	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x0e8ff3…
06-10 09:29:28	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x0bff15…
06-10 09:27:28	fifwc mex rsa 2026 06 11 btts	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x6a0309…
06-08 14:44:12	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$3	0xd9bb50…
06-08 08:50:33	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x96db70…
06-08 08:49:45	another 7pt0 or above earthquake by june 30 2026	No	SELL	9	0¢	$0	0xbeee14…
06-05 08:53:03	gpt 5pt6 released by june 8 2026 884	Yes	SELL	11	2¢	$0	0xf27a76…
06-01 11:54:34	Another 7.0 or above earthquake by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x01a7e1…
05-31 20:12:13	GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x56df3d…
05-04 10:47:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	15	39¢	$6	0xc2baf2…
05-03 13:37:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0xdb0282…
04-28 17:35:42	Will Trump say "Love Trump" or "Loves Trump" in April?	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x4f060e…
04-24 07:42:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	No	BUY	3	83¢	$3	0xad5ea2…
04-24 07:42:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	BUY	3	88¢	$3	0x1930b7…
04-23 21:34:14	Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	63¢	$15	0x2ace98…
04-23 20:54:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	8¢	$2	0xf07cc7…
04-23 15:24:02	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	31¢	$9	0x0255f6…
04-23 15:23:38	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	93¢	$9	0x3c3e42…
04-22 21:15:54	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	89¢	$26	0xb902dd…
04-22 20:47:18	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xc7fa06…
04-22 09:14:46	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xaffb70…
04-22 09:12:44	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x904472…
04-19 20:25:42	Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x6b35d3…
04-19 20:25:10	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	15	34¢	$5	0x3f9048…
04-19 20:25:02	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xf8ec99…
04-19 15:45:24	btc updown 5m 1776613500	Down	BUY	4	63¢	$2	0x3950f5…
04-19 14:41:14	btc updown 5m 1776609600	Up	BUY	2	68¢	$2	0xba03f7…
04-19 14:40:54	btc updown 5m 1776609300	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xfc781c…
04-19 14:37:48	btc updown 5m 1776609300	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x9121b8…
04-19 14:37:36	btc updown 5m 1776609300	Down	SELL	4	31¢	$1	0x526e4a…
04-19 14:36:20	btc updown 5m 1776609300	Down	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x107cf0…
04-17 18:38:32	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x0ab771…
04-17 18:37:50	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0x8b4590…
04-17 17:26:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x4d6eae…
04-17 17:25:56	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x8c74cd…
04-16 21:36:52	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0xcacff2…
04-15 17:51:48	Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x4f4fe7…
04-15 17:42:26	Will Trump say "Love Trump" or "Loves Trump" in April?	Yes	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x734825…
04-15 17:40:50	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x83d917…
04-12 16:55:39	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x0c19ca…