Insignificant-Confidence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$283

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.5%

Resolved

189

Trades

747

lifetime

Volume

$5.27K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-21

last 06-04 14:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 57% +$283

Other

1% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 147 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	4	$205	118	118	+0	open	—	05-15 10:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	1	$100	356	0	+356	Up	+$256	05-05 10:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	3	$79	104	0	+104	open	—	05-18 08:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	12	$65	56	56	+0	open	—	05-04 07:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	8	$61	105	0	+105	Up	$-8	05-11 16:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	3	$53	73	0	+73	Down	$-10	05-14 05:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	2	$51	79	0	+79	Up	$-12	05-06 07:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	7	$51	30	43	-13	open	—	05-04 06:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	3	$51	75	0	+75	Up	$-12	05-08 12:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	3	$48	62	0	+62	open	—	05-15 07:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	2	$46	61	0	+61	Down	$-16	05-12 02:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	2	$45	75	0	+75	Down	$-6	05-11 19:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	3	$43	54	0	+54	Down	$-16	05-07 14:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	4	$43	62	0	+62	Down	$-13	05-08 15:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	9	$41	38	29	+9	open	—	05-04 07:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	2	$40	64	0	+64	open	—	05-15 02:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	2	$40	57	0	+57	open	—	05-15 07:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	4	$39	57	57	+0	open	—	05-15 09:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	3	$38	76	0	+76	Up	+$0	05-08 12:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	4	$36	25	25	+0	open	—	05-15 09:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	2	$36	59	0	+59	Up	$-7	05-12 01:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	4	$35	20	20	+0	open	—	05-15 09:29
bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	14	$34	34	34	+0	open	—	06-04 14:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	2	$34	44	0	+44	Up	$-11	05-08 11:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	2	$34	63	0	+63	open	—	05-14 13:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	2	$33	43	0	+43	open	—	05-15 04:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	4	$33	32	32	+0	open	—	05-04 07:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	5	$33	32	29	+3	open	—	05-04 07:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	4	$32	32	32	+0	open	—	05-04 15:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	6	$32	26	18	+9	open	—	05-04 12:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-04 14:43:51	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	SELL	3	86¢	$2	0x60e72e…
06-04 14:43:51	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x3db3c3…
06-04 14:43:13	bitcoin above 64k on june 4 2026	Yes	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0x22a303…
06-04 14:42:48	bitcoin above 64k on june 4 2026	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xaa6d0a…
06-04 14:41:51	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0x64462f…
06-04 14:41:25	bitcoin above 64k on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x601119…
06-04 14:38:21	will bitcoin reach 65k on june 4	Yes	SELL	7	43¢	$3	0xe4e4e1…
06-04 14:36:16	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Up	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0xf6d32a…
06-04 14:36:15	eth updown 15m 1780583400	Down	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x4b8f7c…
06-04 14:36:13	btc updown 15m 1780583400	Down	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xf95ffb…
06-04 14:36:13	btc updown 15m 1780583400	Down	SELL	4	85¢	$3	0xbd07d3…
06-04 14:35:43	eth updown 15m 1780583400	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x777978…
06-04 14:35:39	btc updown 15m 1780583400	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0xda0d2c…
06-04 14:34:42	btc updown 15m 1780583400	Up	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xd9a668…
06-04 14:34:42	btc updown 15m 1780583400	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x360609…
06-04 14:33:37	bitcoin above 66k on june 5 2026	Yes	SELL	23	14¢	$3	0xce4431…
06-04 14:28:48	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Up	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x429ad1…
06-04 14:28:28	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Up	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x73c438…
06-04 14:27:36	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Up	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xb201f1…
06-04 14:27:33	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Up	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xd8b820…
06-04 14:25:16	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0xda101a…
06-04 14:24:18	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x76fb4b…
06-04 14:23:22	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Up	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x082e5e…
06-04 14:17:55	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0x7a87dc…
06-04 14:17:54	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x90f40a…
06-04 14:17:54	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x7ef6f2…
06-04 14:14:54	will bitcoin reach 65k on june 4	Yes	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x8d1c37…
06-04 14:14:30	bitcoin above 66k on june 5 2026	Yes	BUY	23	21¢	$5	0x69c224…
06-04 14:10:39	btc updown 15m 1780581600	Up	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x1fc0c3…
06-04 14:09:03	ethereum up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0x42d1c9…
06-04 14:08:39	ethereum up or down june 4 2026 10am et	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xcc312a…
06-04 14:08:24	btc updown 15m 1780581600	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xd883bc…
06-04 14:06:19	eth updown 15m 1780581600	Up	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0xdaed9b…
06-04 14:04:27	eth updown 15m 1780581600	Up	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0xfe7070…
06-04 13:55:22	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 9am et	Up	SELL	6	66¢	$4	0xc5e8c0…
06-04 13:54:27	btc updown 15m 1780580700	Up	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0x661ea7…
06-04 13:54:27	btc updown 15m 1780580700	Up	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x27645b…
06-04 13:54:25	btc updown 15m 1780580700	Up	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0x26fa41…
06-04 13:54:15	btc updown 15m 1780580700	Up	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x1bc181…
06-04 13:54:13	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x7de18f…
06-04 13:54:04	ethereum up or down june 4 2026 9am et	Up	SELL	9	51¢	$4	0x178826…
06-04 13:54:00	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 9am et	Up	SELL	1	51¢	$0	0xec837a…
06-04 13:54:00	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 9am et	Up	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x477bcb…
06-04 13:53:34	ethereum up or down june 4 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x909ef9…
06-04 13:53:34	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	1	58¢	$0	0x1e2763…
06-04 13:53:33	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 9am et	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xba5ba2…
06-04 13:07:28	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 9am et	Down	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0x10eec6…
06-04 13:07:13	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 9am et	Down	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x125e8d…
06-04 05:44:27	bnb up or down june 4 2026 1am et	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xaf5c7e…
06-04 05:34:27	bnb up or down june 4 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x35ccbf…
06-04 05:18:16	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 1am et	Down	SELL	3	91¢	$2	0x5656f6…
06-04 05:18:09	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 1am et	Down	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x9ddf9a…
06-04 05:17:01	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 1am et	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x82969a…
06-04 05:11:42	dota2 dfam mental 2026 06 04	D family	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0xcd9f1d…
06-04 05:07:30	itf saigo wan 2026 06 04	Rina Saigo	SELL	4	67¢	$3	0x3e3283…
06-04 05:07:28	itf saigo wan 2026 06 04	Rina Saigo	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0xdd74fc…
06-04 05:06:34	bitcoin above 56k on june 10 2026	No	SELL	61	4¢	$2	0xdcbe54…
06-04 05:03:58	itf saigo wan 2026 06 04	Rina Saigo	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0x557c17…
06-04 05:02:09	cs2 sparta ursa 2026 06 04	Ursa	SELL	8	51¢	$4	0x5cd4f0…
06-04 05:01:03	itf yexinma yao 2026 06 04	Xinxin Yao	SELL	4	54¢	$2	0x7bf1b2…
06-04 05:01:03	itf yexinma yao 2026 06 04	Xinxin Yao	SELL	1	54¢	$0	0x41b657…
06-04 05:01:03	itf yexinma yao 2026 06 04	Xinxin Yao	SELL	1	54¢	$1	0x351d16…
06-04 04:54:15	itf yexinma yao 2026 06 04	Xinxin Yao	BUY	1	73¢	$0	0xf8f116…
06-04 04:54:09	itf yexinma yao 2026 06 04	Xinxin Yao	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x747a65…
06-04 04:52:57	bitcoin above 56k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	61	5¢	$3	0x344d15…
06-04 04:32:06	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 12am et	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0xdb0cac…
06-04 04:32:06	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 12am et	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x929813…
06-04 04:32:04	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 12am et	Up	SELL	2	66¢	$1	0x7054d2…
06-04 04:31:37	cs2 sparta ursa 2026 06 04	Ursa	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x28c6f5…
06-04 04:29:54	bitcoin up or down june 4 2026 12am et	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x71b2d6…
06-04 04:24:13	will trump praise weijia jiang by june 30	Yes	SELL	6	62¢	$4	0x71650b…
06-04 04:14:34	will trump praise weijia jiang by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0xf05f33…
06-04 04:06:36	dota2 dfam mental 2026 06 04	D family	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x95eed9…
06-02 22:20:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x55901d…
06-02 22:19:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x3dd810…
06-02 22:19:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xf825d4…
06-02 22:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x6c980f…
06-02 22:02:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x90f296…
06-02 22:01:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xb23fb9…
06-02 21:57:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x16cc04…
05-18 09:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	21	68¢	$15	0x82e995…
05-18 09:14:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x55761d…
05-18 09:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x9a02c9…
05-18 08:33:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	19	73¢	$14	0x62277e…
05-18 08:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x5d12b7…
05-18 08:29:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	53	95¢	$51	0x380305…
05-18 08:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	35	54¢	$19	0xf0575d…
05-18 08:28:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	16	61¢	$9	0x7adb65…
05-17 05:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x40c025…
05-15 10:18:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x16e8d7…
05-15 10:17:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	SELL	105	95¢	$100	0xe54937…
05-15 10:16:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x506f6b…
05-15 10:15:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x94b05c…
05-15 10:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x4e3c7b…
05-15 10:11:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe03208…
05-15 10:10:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xe54f20…
05-15 10:08:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x62e534…
05-15 10:07:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd4ea6f…
05-15 10:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x0a2c22…
05-15 10:05:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	SELL	8	78¢	$6	0xbbc665…