Evil-Armrest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$73

Unrealized P&L

+$70

Hit rate

12.5%

Resolved

Trades

482

lifetime

Volume

$49.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$103

Open exposure

$160

1 position

First seen

2026-02-05

last 06-07 19:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

58% — —

Other

42% 50% $-73

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 78 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes		-5,330	$-230	3¢	$-160	+$70	06-07 00:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	87	$16.1K	19,351	20,924	-1,573	open	—	04-23 18:22
will a gulf state strike iran by march 7	59	$5.5K	5,815	5,857	-43	open	—	03-04 23:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	20	$4.5K	7,953	7,953	+0	open	—	02-28 18:45
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	38	$3.3K	3,678	3,678	+0	open	—	03-04 17:50
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 3 345	44	$2.4K	3,957	4,309	-352	open	—	03-04 00:03
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	17	$2.2K	5,299	5,299	+0	No	$-104	04-13 17:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	15	$1.6K	7,997	7,997	+0	open	—	03-01 01:33
Iran leadership change by May 31?	9	$1.4K	6,604	6,604	+0	open	—	05-05 22:58
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	12	$1.1K	2,135	2,135	+0	open	—	03-01 03:07
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	3	$1.1K	1,840	1,840	+0	open	—	03-02 18:11
Iran leadership change by April 30?	6	$1.0K	6,309	6,309	+0	open	—	04-20 22:12
hezbollah strike on israel by march 7	3	$859	627	627	-0	open	—	03-02 01:01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	14	$690	2,655	2,655	+0	open	—	04-19 12:00
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	10	$656	1,630	1,630	+0	open	—	03-03 21:25
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	27	$635	35,757	31,151	+4,606	open	—	03-01 06:14
iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 7	5	$633	1,369	1,369	+0	open	—	03-04 00:05
iran closes its airspace by june 8	4	$539	555	555	+0	open	—	06-07 19:07
will uae strike iran by march 31	4	$533	1,037	1,037	+0	open	—	03-04 21:25
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 15 153 144 999 648 116 955 829 149	2	$478	270	270	+0	open	—	03-03 20:51
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	2	$450	530	530	+0	open	—	06-07 18:46
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	14	$437	6,802	6,802	+0	open	—	04-20 12:19
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	15	$330	512	512	+0	open	—	02-22 15:19
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	7	$315	389	389	+0	open	—	03-04 21:38
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	5	$314	690	690	+0	Yes	+$31	04-19 12:51
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	10	$312	2,401	2,401	-0	open	—	04-19 20:57
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	2	$312	210	210	+0	open	—	04-19 21:55
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	2	$270	338	338	+0	open	—	02-11 08:19
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 4 844 575	4	$237	504	0	+504	open	—	03-04 00:19
Iran leadership change by June 30?	15	$230	0	5,330	-5,330	open	—	06-07 00:51
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	5	$209	738	738	+0	open	—	05-05 22:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 19:07:54	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	555	58¢	$323	0x074c79…
06-07 18:47:12	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	101	39¢	$40	0x578e9a…
06-07 18:46:48	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	181	39¢	$70	0xf45463…
06-07 18:46:42	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	273	39¢	$106	0x1c641b…
06-07 18:46:06	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	530	41¢	$217	0xbee660…
06-07 00:52:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	530	44¢	$233	0xcc2ce4…
06-07 00:51:03	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	3,138	4¢	$123	0xe60488…
06-03 13:39:13	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	117	5¢	$6	0x600db4…
06-03 13:34:44	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	81	5¢	$4	0x1242e9…
06-03 12:08:50	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	220	5¢	$11	0x3c867c…
06-03 12:08:08	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	408	5¢	$20	0xf7e6ed…
06-03 12:07:59	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	408	5¢	$20	0xccbf83…
06-03 12:07:38	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	408	5¢	$20	0x613c04…
06-03 12:07:29	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	408	5¢	$20	0x9b8dcf…
06-03 11:57:54	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	39	5¢	$2	0x611a90…
06-03 11:57:54	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	39	5¢	$2	0x0cf82d…
06-03 11:43:26	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0x53e879…
06-03 10:50:47	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x4fb16c…
06-03 10:49:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	5¢	$0	0x637ace…
06-03 09:50:26	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	30	5¢	$1	0xbfd996…
06-03 09:42:14	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0xbc6d4f…
05-12 18:19:10	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	245	27¢	$65	0xaf925c…
05-12 18:12:15	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	249	25¢	$62	0x407745…
05-05 22:58:32	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	SELL	738	9¢	$66	0x816486…
05-05 22:58:28	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5,902	9¢	$531	0x7f6de6…
05-02 21:38:36	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2,630	8¢	$210	0x76353e…
04-23 19:01:26	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,650	19¢	$314	0xab98cb…
04-23 18:42:08	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	122	21¢	$26	0x4d2247…
04-23 18:29:20	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	329	20¢	$66	0x496b6e…
04-23 18:23:04	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	19¢	$3	0xfd3e34…
04-23 18:22:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	422	97¢	$409	0x93d2d4…
04-22 19:51:36	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	211	21¢	$44	0x6a6296…
04-22 19:51:12	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	503	13¢	$65	0xc6fa3b…
04-22 19:43:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	141	93¢	$131	0x71fff0…
04-22 19:36:24	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	775	13¢	$101	0x8e9165…
04-22 19:36:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	110	93¢	$102	0xa97408…
04-22 19:23:32	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	58	19¢	$11	0xde4494…
04-22 19:22:48	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	347	18¢	$62	0x4ba589…
04-22 19:20:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	224	93¢	$209	0x084e92…
04-22 09:52:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	129	90¢	$116	0xac080f…
04-22 00:19:42	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	360	0¢	$1	0xba6dec…
04-21 21:13:28	will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	No	BUY	115	60¢	$69	0x28cf64…
04-21 20:45:18	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	702	10¢	$70	0x4172d1…
04-21 16:58:14	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	702	11¢	$77	0xd27ea5…
04-21 16:51:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	203	38¢	$77	0x4a938e…
04-20 22:25:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	80	74¢	$59	0x98fe22…
04-20 22:12:48	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	1,327	4¢	$58	0x2c2e85…
04-20 18:34:06	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0x9c9ec4…
04-20 18:14:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	98	72¢	$71	0x8b4315…
04-20 18:10:28	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	SELL	278	4¢	$12	0x73bdf6…
04-20 12:19:14	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,751	3¢	$58	0xd47119…
04-19 21:56:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	115	39¢	$45	0x074204…
04-19 21:56:32	Iran leadership change by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,628	4¢	$72	0x8899f4…
04-19 21:55:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	751	4¢	$29	0x40be31…
04-19 21:55:36	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	SELL	210	69¢	$146	0xb5aafa…
04-19 21:14:08	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	Yes	BUY	210	79¢	$166	0x283918…
04-19 20:57:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	SELL	2,055	8¢	$166	0x410417…
04-19 19:34:18	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0xa4135d…
04-19 18:56:18	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	105	63¢	$66	0xf6c5ab…
04-19 18:37:10	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	67	62¢	$42	0xd9ad63…
04-19 18:34:54	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	No	BUY	158	62¢	$98	0x9b55ae…
04-19 18:30:58	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	517	18¢	$94	0x5706c4…
04-19 18:30:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	410	73¢	$299	0x1e55db…
04-19 17:17:30	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	178	15¢	$27	0xf9c2eb…
04-19 17:17:04	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	22	15¢	$3	0x4f3a60…
04-19 17:14:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	1,000	70¢	$700	0x6b2dbe…
04-19 17:13:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	30	31¢	$9	0x75aab5…
04-19 17:13:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	58	31¢	$18	0x04bbb4…
04-19 17:12:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$39	0xb00235…
04-19 17:11:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	6¢	$60	0x7989d1…
04-19 17:11:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Yes	BUY	1,055	6¢	$62	0x5582b9…
04-19 17:10:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	1,146	69¢	$790	0x2e6edd…
04-19 17:10:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	187	69¢	$129	0x3dbd82…
04-19 13:42:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	234	74¢	$173	0x43a259…
04-19 12:51:50	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	SELL	690	25¢	$173	0xcc3c01…
04-19 12:03:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	57	76¢	$43	0xa90ffa…
04-19 12:03:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	398	76¢	$303	0xa0f2c9…
04-19 12:00:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2,486	13¢	$323	0xdc29af…
04-19 12:00:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	169	14¢	$24	0x6973ec…
04-19 09:44:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	209	79¢	$165	0xfe94df…
04-19 09:41:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	620	3¢	$19	0xb2a9cf…
04-19 09:41:06	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	620	3¢	$19	0x553c90…
04-19 09:40:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	3¢	$30	0xc1c29a…
04-19 09:40:42	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xa3bbfd…
04-19 09:40:04	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	105	3¢	$3	0xbe581d…
04-19 09:39:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	418	3¢	$13	0xe654c4…
04-19 09:39:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	310	3¢	$10	0x9a862b…
04-19 09:39:48	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	255	3¢	$8	0xd62e01…
04-19 09:39:44	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1,623	4¢	$58	0xa30b8a…
04-19 09:33:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	435	79¢	$344	0x78a2ec…
04-19 02:24:20	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x47ea00…
04-18 22:28:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	34	14¢	$5	0xe49f04…
04-18 22:27:26	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x51979b…
04-18 22:27:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x97c38e…
04-18 21:57:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0x2a30a4…
04-18 21:38:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0xbe555d…
04-18 21:28:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	68	14¢	$9	0x5d96e4…
04-18 21:15:08	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	29	26¢	$8	0x2ff8b0…
04-18 21:07:48	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	13¢	$8	0xad1083…
04-18 21:07:42	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	801	13¢	$102	0xc22ed4…