Complicated-Candy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

16.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$29.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$760

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 05-27 18:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

97% 0% $-0

Sports

2% — —

Crypto

1% 100% +$1

Politics

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$27.1K	13,617	13,617	+0	open	—	01-09 06:31
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$360	181	181	+0	open	—	04-15 10:27
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$323	162	162	+0	open	—	04-25 19:02
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$316	159	159	+0	No	$-0	04-26 08:49
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$314	157	157	+0	open	—	04-25 04:47
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	2	$302	152	152	+0	open	—	04-23 07:24
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	2	$294	148	148	+0	open	—	04-24 11:26
trump out as president by march 31	2	$172	88	88	+0	open	—	03-06 09:39
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3?	1	$69	69	0	+69	open	—	05-03 07:00
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May?	1	$64	65	0	+65	open	—	05-22 21:31
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6?	1	$60	62	0	+62	No	+$1	05-06 04:32
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch?	1	$45	45	0	+45	open	—	03-07 20:02
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May?	1	$42	42	0	+42	open	—	05-27 18:49
nba dal por 2026 03 27	1	$33	152	0	+152	open	—	03-27 05:17
nba tor lac 2026 03 25	1	$29	47	0	+47	open	—	03-25 03:59
nba ind chi 2026 04 01	1	$27	43	0	+43	open	—	04-01 01:59
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$23	23	0	+23	open	—	03-08 06:59
nba sac bkn 2026 03 29	1	$22	43	0	+43	open	—	03-29 09:28
cbb iowa fl 2026 03 22 spread home 10pt5	1	$21	42	0	+42	open	—	03-22 05:44
nba cle mem 2026 04 06	1	$13	14	0	+14	open	—	04-06 05:59
nhl cbj det 2026 04 07	1	$10	20	0	+20	open	—	04-07 07:49
nhl buf nyr 2026 04 08	1	$9	20	0	+20	open	—	04-08 04:44
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	2	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	02-27 04:23
nhl wsh tor 2026 04 08	1	$8	13	0	+13	open	—	04-08 06:34
nba mil bkn 2026 04 07	1	$7	15	0	+15	open	—	04-07 06:07
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	1	$6	13	0	+13	open	—	04-08 07:45
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	05-15 06:44
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$4	4	0	+4	open	—	02-27 14:48
nba phx cha 2026 04 02	1	$4	12	0	+12	open	—	04-02 10:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-27 18:49:42	Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0x7c4c17…
05-22 21:31:06	Will XRP reach $2.20 in May?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$64	0x2fb2aa…
05-15 06:44:42	New York Yankees vs. New York Mets	New York Mets	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0x3a104a…
05-06 04:32:52	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 6?	No	BUY	62	98¢	$60	0xba5d10…
05-03 07:00:16	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3?	No	BUY	69	100¢	$69	0x18b9cf…
04-26 08:49:48	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	159	100¢	$158	0x3c0e23…
04-26 07:46:38	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	159	100¢	$158	0xf6ce78…
04-25 19:02:08	Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	162	100¢	$161	0x2d76e9…
04-25 17:47:56	Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	162	100¢	$162	0x2d1d37…
04-25 04:47:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	157	100¢	$157	0xf48084…
04-25 02:43:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	157	100¢	$157	0x1932f7…
04-24 11:26:08	Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	148	100¢	$147	0x62914d…
04-24 10:19:48	Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	148	100¢	$147	0xf96949…
04-23 07:24:44	Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	152	99¢	$151	0x6b3a48…
04-23 06:37:54	Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	152	100¢	$151	0x9071b2…
04-15 10:27:18	Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	181	100¢	$180	0xd175fc…
04-15 09:43:10	Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x12089f…
04-15 09:05:52	Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	149	100¢	$148	0xb348d5…
04-08 07:45:59	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	No	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0x40246d…
04-08 06:34:03	nhl wsh tor 2026 04 08	Capitals	BUY	13	58¢	$8	0xcb0e20…
04-08 04:44:27	nhl buf nyr 2026 04 08	Rangers	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x826c96…
04-07 07:49:27	nhl cbj det 2026 04 07	Red Wings	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x30d745…
04-07 06:07:21	nba mil bkn 2026 04 07	Nets	BUY	15	44¢	$7	0xee6f29…
04-06 05:59:01	nba cle mem 2026 04 06	Cavaliers	BUY	14	91¢	$13	0xc8eaf0…
04-02 10:02:01	nba phx cha 2026 04 02	Suns	BUY	12	35¢	$4	0xa50545…
04-01 01:59:35	nba ind chi 2026 04 01	Bulls	BUY	43	63¢	$27	0x87e02a…
03-29 09:28:26	nba sac bkn 2026 03 29	Kings	BUY	43	51¢	$22	0x8578ba…
03-27 05:17:55	nba dal por 2026 03 27	Mavericks	BUY	152	22¢	$33	0x048549…
03-25 03:59:43	nba tor lac 2026 03 25	Clippers	BUY	47	62¢	$29	0xc7f6e9…
03-22 05:44:39	cbb iowa fl 2026 03 22 spread home 10pt5	Iowa Hawkeyes	BUY	42	51¢	$21	0x548e02…
03-08 06:59:49	Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	23	99¢	$23	0x155b96…
03-07 20:02:19	Based FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xcc9ff1…
03-06 09:39:13	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	88	98¢	$86	0xced2a9…
02-27 14:48:27	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x120e24…
02-27 04:23:32	EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$4	0xbc2eba…
02-14 09:46:09	EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$4	0x39f3cc…
01-11 10:19:22	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	88	97¢	$85	0x5af468…
01-09 06:31:26	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	SELL	13,617	99¢	$13,522	0x88c86e…
01-09 06:30:16	fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	No	BUY	13,617	99¢	$13,536	0x8f33a0…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Attentive-Crewman 0xd218…b5c9	20	$284.3K	595	05-16 00:05
Probable-Farrow 0x6814…a9e7	18	$402.5K	16,077	04-21 23:39
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	16	$64.3K	1,205	05-17 02:50
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	16	$19.9K	291	05-16 02:15
Drab-Heaven 0xaff3…6ecc	14	$5.43K	134	04-27 00:07
Earnest-Timbale 0x5f39…d603	14	$1.45K	191	04-07 11:45
Frail-Possible 0x204f…5e14	13	$219.7K	973	05-16 02:05
Scornful-West 0x6d3c…d294	13	$216.5K	2,329	05-15 19:59